posted 01-24-2000 11:25 PM            

Here's where I might be getting into trouble with a lot of other collectors: I think eBay is good (mostly). Good for HLs in the long run. Good for new collectors in the short run. I believe that eBay is redefining the secondary market, and has been for some time. It's the democratization of the secondary market, and it's moving the "dogs" off the retailer's shelves and into strong hands. This is good, even if the prices are suffering, short-term.

To track the economic pulse of the line, I'm going to start tracking stuff on eBay, similar to what Fred had started a few months back, but targeting a few particular pieces and keeping track of them over time. I envision (after a few months of data collecting) setting up a downloadable Excel worksheet. (Tim, I may need your help here.)

I've already started collecting data as of January 1, 2000. I am tracking 30 models:

*HL103 West Quoddy Head
*HL108 Burrows Island
*HL117 Boston Harbor
*HL118 Old Mackinac
*HL124 Split Rock
*HL126 Nauset Beach
*HL135 Ocracoke Island
*HL138 St. Augustine
*HL139 Barnegat
*HL140 Diamond Head
*HL141 Cape Neddick
*HL142 Holland
*HL143 Montauk Point
*HL145 Assateague
*HL156 Point Arena
*HL158 Currituck
*HL168 Cape May
*HL175 Cape Lookout
*HL181 Thomas Point
*HL189, HL190 Morris Island, T&N
*HL194 Sanibel Island
*HL196 Cape Henry
*HL209 Cape Florida
*HL225 Hillsboro Inlet
*HL501 Point Fermin
*HL602 Sunken Rock
*HL603 Edgartown
*HL700 Big Bay Point
*HL701 Colchester Reef
*HL704 White Shoal

These are models that I find interesting for a variety of reasons. Taken together, I think they comprise a meaningful profile of the HL line in the secondary market. I'm trying not to waste my time on the "commodity" pieces (Selkirk, et al), nor look endlessly for the occasional Coquille which I believe will never sell frequently enough to provide meaningful data.

Of course I needed to set some operational definitions for what I would count and what I would not. Here's my attempt at this:

*Only pieces actually sold will be included. No pieces with zero bids or "reserve not met" are to be included. Transactions in which there is both a buyer and a seller are the only legitimate barometers of market price, imo.

*Auctions are located using eBay's sort feature for completed items. Search criterion is:

"Harbour Lights (Search Name)",

where (Search Name) is a root form of the model name chosen to minimize overlooking auctions. For example, Cape Henry's search name might be simply "Henry" in case someone lists a piece as "C. Henry" or such. Bad example, but I think you know what I mean.

*No attempt will be made to seek out listings where the name of the piece has been misspelled ("Harbor Lights" instead of "Harbour Lights;" "Naversink" instead of "Navesink").

*After the search, the results will be manually narrowed to the correct model number and other criteria.

*No special pieces such as lightning rods, artist's proofs, variations, etc. will be knowingly included, since there is a unique sub-market for those pieces, and the infrequency of their appearance makes them hard to track as such.

*I will attempt to NOT include items that are damaged or missing their original boxes, as advertised by the seller.

*Customary shipping prices will not be included in the figures. Single pieces exceeding $10 for shipping will have the excess added to the price shown.

I include these rules so that others can track other pieces and we can then compare apples and apples. I encourage others to adopt some pieces so we can cover even more of the breadth of the line.

For each closed auction that meets the criteria above I am recording

*the date the auction closes
*the winning bid amount, and
*the total number of bids.

How about it? Anyone else want to adopt a model (or 30 ?) Just sign-in below!

posted 01-26-2000 01:19 AM            

Although I do check e-bay almost daily, I need to think about it a bit more before I commit to tracking a piece or two.

I did want to say that I agree with your observations regarding the value of E-bay. It gives a buyer in a remote part of the country, access to items they would not have available locally. It also opens up a limiteless marketplace for a seller who would otherwise be limited by "walk-in" traffic or local advertising. Since this is a "relatively" new marketplace environment, the results are these fluctuating market prices until equilibrium is reached.

I have only bought one item HL on e-bay despite the temptation, but I did use it the other day to see whether I should "bid on a piece" to save $ or just go to a regular retail price secondary market internet source which had what I wanted. I used e-bay to check what was available and the asking prices, as well as the recent history of selling prices and the level of activity on the piece I wanted. I made what I believe was a pretty good estimate of what I would eventually have to pay for it on e-bay and decided that "in this particular case", the modest savings was not worth the hassle of getting a money order or closely monitoring my e-mail or bid.

posted 01-26-2000 09:28 AM            

I will take

#113 Ft Niagara
#122 Buffalo
#128 S.E. Block
#502 Stonington
#503 Spyglass set
#151 Jupiter
#163 Cape Canaveral
#177 Alcatraz
and 2 that I think will come on stronger in the future
#115 St George
#116 Castle Hill

posted 01-26-2000 05:39 PM            

I wonder if they are signed?

Saint WackoPaul '
Keep the Flame

posted 01-27-2000 12:34 AM            

I think the number of bidders (v. the number of bids) might be interesting, but I think that the number of bids also displays a quantifiable interest in a particular piece. If a single bidder is raising his maximum bid several times, it might show that he is interested enough in the piece to repeatedly reconsider his original "limit." I think this might happen more often with highly desirable pieces than with those that show up every day. This is different than the number of bidders, but either might serve as a proxy for the other. I don't think that the extra trouble of counting bidders is worth it, at least not for my intended purpose.

Regarding the shipping costs, I agree that those are material, but they also tend to be relatively constant seller to seller and piece to piece on eBay. Anything over $10 will be accommodated under my plan. I think that the largest potential difference piece-to-piece ($10 imposed maximum v. free shipping) is not that important. Nobody is going to get too excited over a $10 price move either way, imo. Again, as long as the reader understands the criterion, they can allow a $10 shipping charge if they are budgeting to buy a piece. A buyer would need to consider local costs such as sales tax in their buying decision anyway, so this shouldn't be too hard for a reader to deal with, either.

I agree that neither the low numbers nor Bill's signature add materially to the selling price of a piece, except where a variation is involved, such as green water on a New London Ledge, Minot's Ledge or Barnegat. At least not to the extent that a lightning rod or an AP would. A low number or a signature might attract more bidders, but I don't think the difference in price is worth excluding those pieces from the data. Besides, what is a "low number?" … 24? 99? 102? 999? Things start getting sloppy here, data collection wise. I think the value-to-effort ratio doesn't work out favorably here.

Just my opinion, trying to keep it simple.

posted 01-27-2000 09:23 PM            

I'd be thrilled with one of the last 100 in an edition. It would be so cool!

I guess as pointed out, those would be particularly tough to get. Has anyone ever seen them advertised as having "particularly high" edition numbers?

posted 01-28-2000 12:17 PM            

quote:

---

I agree with your post Jeff!

---

Actually, so do I.

Orv and Greydawn have both brought up excellent points. There are innumerable factors that affect the market, far too many to identify and track, in fact.

I don't think that either the number of bids or the number of bidders is all that important, just interesting.

I have also given some thought to the "reserve not yet met" auctions and tracking them as well. Still, a deal is not a deal unless a buyer and seller agree on a price, and something in my gut just told me to exclude those, so I did. It's not just what a buyer is willing to pay, it also depends on what a seller is willing to part with the piece for. If a sale is not consummated, what the buyer is willing to pay is merely hypothetical. If some of those willing buyers would bid on the auctions with "no reserve" that expire without bids, now that would be a happy situation.

I understand that Bill's signature or a low number will command a slightly higher price in many cases, I just didn't think it was a large enough disparity to concern myself with. It's not on the same order as the disparity between "typical" pieces and those with lightning rods, or APs.

I think it's just great if you are tracking *everything* on eBay and keeping good records of condition, etc. It's just far more complicated to keep adequate records that way and as I said earlier, I am trying to keep it relatively simple. I'd love for you to share your more complete data with us though, if you are willing. It sounds like you can publish your own "Blue Book" in time. You might want to consider that.

My purpose is simply to get a reasonable estimate of the cost to obtain a typical specimen of a given model and track it over time. Together with the other models that I am tracking, I only intend to use these data as an ongoing barometer of Harbour Lights' health in the secondary market. For that purpose, I think that the somewhat sterilized data I am collecting are adequate.

Thanks for the insights, though. We can continue to identify all sorts of eBay observations here in this thread. I'd encourage that. But right now I don't feel that anyone has yet provided sufficient reason for me to change my approach for my stated purpose. I think we could use any number of different strategies, and I don't believe that mine is better than any others, except in it's relative simplicity. Simplicity is important to me, so I'll stick with the original plan for now.

posted 01-28-2000 03:48 PM            

Thanks again for your input. I already have the completed auctions for each model bookmarked. It takes a little longer to load each individual page, but I think that I will miss fewer auctions of interest than I would by wading through all expired auctions. This way I can catch up on the data entry just once per week without missing much besides misspellings. If I had to sort through an entire week's worth of completed auctions in one sitting, I'd be very likely to overlook something. Again, my interest is in keeping this as easy as possible.

I have started an Excel spreadsheet on this already. I will e-mail it to you to look over. If you'd like, you can periodically e-mail the auctions you are tracking to me. I'd be happy to enter them into my spreadsheet once per week or so. Eventually all the data will need to appear on one spreadsheet for download anyway, if I follow the original plan.

Thanks again for your help.

posted 01-31-2000 06:38 PM            

I think this is a great idea and look forward to seeing the results. I track west coast pieces I don't have yet. Just to keep in touch with what it will cost me in the near future. I just pencil in on a list I have what they are going for.I don't know enough about computers to do all you are planning to do.
You guys are awsome. Keep up the good work!

posted 02-01-2000 01:30 AM            

----------------
-Art

Click here for the January, 2000 Chart

To convert the chart to a link to speed page loading,

[This message has been edited by Art (edited 04-05-2000).]

posted 02-01-2000 08:30 AM            

I'm not a big number cruncher, but I'd say most of those prices fall in line with what I'd expect. Personally, I thought they'd be a bit higher, but I'm not surprised with what I see.

posted 02-01-2000 12:56 PM            

For those who are tracking and have a place to put a file on the internet. You can save your file as an Excel file, then provide a link to the file here. MS IE will allow you to VIEW Excel files even if you don't own Excel.

Art's solution to save the the file as a JPG file and use Photopoint is an elegant one too. Did you do a screen capture Art?

John

posted 02-01-2000 01:18 PM            

Joanne

posted 02-01-2000 01:33 PM            

I did a cut 'n' paste from Excel into Adobe's Photo Deluxe, then re-sized the image to 500 pixels wide and saved as a .jpg file before uploading to Photopoint.

Remember the days before Windows when you were trapped in the one particular software environment you were using at the time? Unless of course, you owned a Mac.

Regarding the other requests, John, I'd rather not spend the time tracking them. Again, I don't think the unsuccessful auctions are worth the time simply because they *were* unsuccessful. It doesn't matter (to me) what a potential seller wants for a piece if there is no buyer at that price. Nor does it matter (to me) what a potential buyer is offering if there is no seller at that price. I can start auctions with rediculous reserves and/or opening bids all day long. Unless I am willing to actually part with the piece, it has no meaning. The highest bid on such an item might be an indicator of what someone was willing to pay, but I choose to let the market - the actual sale - be the arbiter of what a valid auction is. It's easier for me, and it makes it difficult to dispute the validity of the results. Many might be interested in these additional data, but they don't get to the heart of what I set out to do here.

posted 02-01-2000 08:34 PM            

How about an ebay auction that gets no bids but then somebody (name withheld) contacts the seller with an offer that is accepted?

Maybe those stats are shown on the reverse of the "green sheet", lol?

posted 02-01-2000 11:14 PM            

I've also noticed that Morris Island has been barking a bit lately. Seems like many of the one-time "hot new releases" regress after an initial surge. Panama, with only 4K made, might be different. We'll see. Tune back in in six months. It looks like a good time right now to buy Sanibel, Hillsboro and Morris Island if you do not already own them but are inclined to. I'm not recommending them as an investment, mind you; they just look pretty cheap right now.

I can't help but wonder if the big news of 6,500 Hillsboros took the wind out of the sails (sales?) of pieces such as Sanibel and Morris Island. Likewise, did news of the 4K Panama deflate Hillsboro? We'll never know.

posted 02-02-2000 12:08 AM            

quote:

---

I can't help but wonder if the big news of 6,500 Hillsboros took the wind out of the sails (sales?) of pieces such as Sanibel and Morris Island. Likewise, did news of the 4K Panama deflate Hillsboro?

---

I don't think there's that sort of relation between model sales, where the release of a new model cuts into the sales of a prior release, unless the new one is a knock-off (read GLOW). The come-down from the 10k edition size spurred sales of 'Zilla and the Canal Cuties. I don't believe there is any tie-in with Sanibel and MoIsle TAN - both v. nice models, but there's 19,000 of 'em. Their sales would be what they are today if the former two had never appeared on the market. Scarcity breeds demand breeds appreciation.

I agree there can be an initial 'flush of excitement' over a new model - particularly ones that are different in the way that Sanibel and MoIsle were (are). This will fool dealers into over buying and encourage the unwitting into speculation. Prices went down cause dealers needed to clear out their stock and a bunch are on the market. To repeat, ad nauseum, scarcity breeds demand. Demand breeds interest in the hobby as do rising prices.

Do not underestimate the drawing power of the potential for increase in value. (see stockmarket for details) This is why lower edition sizes are a necessity to gain, regain, and maintain interest. I'll stop ranting - I think I'm starting to repeat something I might have said a while back. (Vbg)

posted 02-02-2000 01:43 PM         

If not, perhaps you could collaborate on a published work for forum members.

posted 02-02-2000 06:34 PM            

quote:

---

I would not buy Sanibel now unless you particularly have to have it. I'd look for 'sleepers' such as Cana Island, Whaleback, Marblehead, Portland Breakwater, etc. Does look like a good time to buy Pt. Fermin.

---

I agree that there are better choices for high priority purchases if you are looking to accumulate some older models as well. My comments were not intended to indicate that Sanibel or Hillsboro should be bought ahead of the 5500 edition models (or any others) if those are in your plans. I am only saying that if you missed out the first time around, you can now once again buy them at retail (or less) if you have been waiting for an opportunity to do so.

quote:

---

I don't think there's that sort of relation between model sales, where the release of a new model cuts into the sales of a prior release, unless the new one is a knock-off (read GLOW).

---

I myself am not convinced that the reason for the recent lower prices of Hillsboro, Sanibel or Morris Island is because of a preempting by Panama, but I think it's an interesting rhetorical question.

quote:

---

The come-down from the 10k edition size spurred sales of 'Zilla and the Canal Cuties. …Their (Morris Island's and Sanibel's) sales would be what they are today if the former two had never appeared on the market.

---

Perhaps. But couldn't Morris Island and Sanibel command a bit more than MSRP if there were no "hot" alternatives among the new releases to chase after? I don't know, but I think it's a real possibility. I think that the number of new models, their high detail, and now their lower edition size all detract from what might otherwise happen in the secondary market. NOTE: I *am not* suggesting less detail or higher edition sizes on new models. In fact, I'm thrilled with the recent trend. In any case, I'm quite willing to write off the potential future gains in the 10,000 edition models to regain the excitement in the line. Call the 10K edition size a mistake, a lesson, and move on.

The collectorate¹ may be overspending trying to keep up with the new releases, leaving less $$ for secondary market purchases. The large numbers of new models is also making "owning them all" a fast-fading dream for most folks entering the game late. That probably removes at least some of the impetus of the secondary market. Fewer new releases per year would be real nice, but Bill needs to make a living, too. I'm not sure if Y&A could survive the double-whammy of lower edition size AND fewer models. (Sorry for the tangential commentary)

quote:

---

Do not underestimate the drawing power of the potential for increase in value. (see stockmarket for details) This is why lower edition sizes are a necessity to gain, regain, and maintain interest.

---

I don't underestimate it. The potential for increase is not my primary motive, but I fully acknowledge that it's a real factor in the business that Y&A chooses to participate in. That's why I started this thread.

------------------
-Art [Collaborate? Here? LOL]

posted 02-02-2000 10:35 PM            

A common mistake among new Collectors who want to build a substantial collection. As I've said before, there's only so many dollars that will be spent on lighthouse models - the fewer spent on Collectibles, the lower the demand for them, the lower their prices will go. 'salready happened. GLOWs are a substantial drain on the Model Economy. Most 10k pieces will be here in 2003.

__
/im

posted 02-03-2000 11:39 PM            

Please e-mail me (rather than post here) if this doesn't work for you.

posted 02-11-2000 01:17 AM            

With tonight's upload I have included a graph of successful bid amounts for each of the models that I am tracking. Just download the spreadsheet and click on the tabs at the bottom of the sheet (arranged by HL model number) to see the graphs.

The download is now available as an "announcement" from the main page of "The Secondary Market" Forum. Just look in the upper left corner for the clickable Market Watch

posted 02-15-2000 09:37 PM            

To tidy things up, consider:

=IF(ISTEXT(E34),"n/a", AVERAGE(E34))

This is predicated on continued inclusion of verbiage such as "no auctions meeting all criteria". Other logical tests can be performed based on different data typing.

Excuse the blunt force technique - I'm not a spreadsheet buff so I'm sure there are more elegant approaches.

Remember: 60% of programming is dealing with exceptions. ;->

posted 02-16-2000 11:25 PM            

Thanks for the input. I'll try to remember to tidy it up a bit for the next upload.

posted 03-01-2000 12:05 PM            

Please feel free to download the entire revised spreadsheet (Excel 5.0) by clicking on the "Market Watch" link at the top left of the main page of the Secondary Market Forum.

Click here for the February, 2000 Chart

------------------
-Art

To correct an omission of one late-closing auction of Stonington Harbor (HL502) in the chart,

[This message has been edited by Art (edited 03-04-2000).]

To convert the chart to a link to speed page loading,

[This message has been edited by Art (edited 04-05-2000).]

posted 03-01-2000 02:32 PM            

For example:

HL113 Fort Niagara Ticker $117-125
Collectible Exchange 3@ $100, 1@ $117 and more with the highest $132

HL151 Jupiter Inlet Ticker 4 pcs from $120-127
Collectible Exchange 4@ $100-119 plus 2@ $125

They aren't all cheaper:
HL142 Holland Ticker $139.99
Collectible Exchange 8 total from $207-250

HL196 Cape Henry Ticker 7 pcs $51-82
Collectible Exchange 5@ $107-188

HL140 Diamond Head Ticker 3 pcs $152-163
Collectible Exchange: 4 $200-250 and 1@ $1,250

If you're a seller, look to Collectible Exchange to consider what the minimum or reserve should be when you sell.

If you're a buyer, always keep track of what you could buy the piece for through Collectible Exchange.

Anyone else want to keep track of these prices? Collectible Exchanges list is updated daily.

This isn't an ad for Collectible Exchange.

posted 03-01-2000 06:17 PM            

CE is a broker. Sellers who wish to sell Harbour Lights (and some other lines) call CE and list what they have and set a price they want to get. Collectible Exchange adds a percentage (20% I think) and prices the item on their listings including the commission.

Until Collectible Exchange gets a call from a buyer, the actual piece is back with the seller. To close a deal, the seller ships it to Collectible Exchange who inspect it and the buyer sends payment. If the piece passes inspection, the seller gets paid and the buyer gets the piece.

That may mean it could take a week or two before the buyer receives the piece or the seller gets paid.

Sellers can set whatever price they want. Diamond Head for $1,250, for example.

There is no way to know from the CE listing if this is something special worth hundreds more or not. But sometimes a seller puts a high price on one of the items they are listing at CE in order to be able to 'point out' that Diamond Head is 'selling for up to $1,250'.

Until a seller 'de-lists' an item, it stays on the CE list. It may be that the seller sold it somewhere else or they have decided NOT to sell it afterall.

The lowest price one may be sold. Since this list is updated frequently, you can print the list out each week and compare pieces available. You might see the list go from 15 Fort Niagara to 9 over a month. And you may be able to tell which ones (by price) are no longer on the list. Can you derive then that Fort Niagara is 'hot' because 6 sold in 30 days? Maybe, maybe not.

To use the listings as a guide, I discard the lowest and highest price ones and use the range of what's in the middle.

posted 03-01-2000 08:01 PM            

IMO, a going price is not established until a sale is made. I think that I can find more than a few economists that would agree with this proposition. As John already has pointed out, the broker listings stay there 'till removed by the people offering them. Once a piece is gone, there is no way for you to know if it was delisted or sold.

Even after throwing out the highest and lowest asking prices as suggested, there still may pieces that are at unreasonably high asking prices remaining on the list. It is not inconceivable that *all* the asking prices on the list are unreasonable. They are merely asking prices. Nothing more. Only the market can decide what is a reasonable asking price -- it confirms it with a sale actually taking place. Without a sale, prices have no meaning. That's why I like to use eBay as a barometer. You can never be certain which pieces actually change hands, but eBay comes as close to it as I have found anywhere.

I prefer to think of the average eBay price as *the* measure of going price against which to judge other sources' prices. Shop around, but don't think that a piece is worth 'X' dollars simply because someone is asking that much for one.

-Art [Did you know that,according to Adam Smith, one of the few legitimate purposes of government spending was to erect and operate lighthouses?]

http://william-king.www.drexel.edu/top/prin/txt/Govch/PG3.html

posted 03-01-2000 11:34 PM            

I've not been following the 'Collectors Information Bureau' CIB semi-annual output.

However, by it's very nature, this guide may not be reflecting correctly the wide open market we now have.

Those involved in the Collectibles Secondary Market as sellers or brokers report semi-annual the actual pieces sold and their prices.

posted 03-06-2000 08:47 PM            

Just printed out the spread sheet. Looks great, sure do appreciate the hard work you put into this. Keep it up!

posted 04-04-2000 11:55 PM            

Click here to view the March, 2000 Chart

To convert the chart to a link to speed page loading,

[This message has been edited by Art (edited 05-03-2000).]

posted 05-03-2000 01:14 AM            

------------------
-Art

Since we have reached the magic number "50", please click here to jump to MT-II

[This message has been edited by Art (edited 05-03-2000).]