Firstly, I'm not much of a seller having placed one ad in the marketplace over all these years, so we'll speak generally.

Yes - I agree that market value is determined in part by current sale prices. However market value is mostly impacted by demand. If a person wants or needs to sell and there are no buyers, then either their price is too high, or the market is sufficiently flooded that there is no demand.

My current thinking is that the HL market has dramatically changed. Prices are lower not because people sell for less, but because demand is less. Why is demand down? Demand is down because:
[*] the line overall is less desirable - partly resulting from the the 10k edition size (pig in the python) which reduced scarcity and mostly because of Glows which reduced uniqueness;
[*] there are fewer Collectors to whom the notion of a Limited Edition is meaningful and desirable. Why are there fewer Collectors? Part of the reason is dilution of appeal as in the previous bullet point. Another part of the reason is the higher entry cost to acquiring some of the earlier, truly desirable pieces. And lastly there is no indication of price appreciation on any but a handful of pieces outside the original 5500 series.

The secondary market is now mostly a discount market and no longer a Collectibles market - its a place for dealers to get rid of overstocks. The only value the secondary ever really had to HL is the extent to which it drove enthusiasm to purchase new models based on the hope the new ones will, either through the passage of time or through one-off variation, become more valuable. HL makes not a dime on a secondary sale - that's yesterday's news to them. With the advent of open editions for virtually everything (and done within months of an LE), HL has all but assured excitement about the past will no longer propel the future. To reverse the old George Allen phrase - the past - in the form of an OE - is now.

As some folks know, I've written extensively on the value of rarity in the creation of mystique and its power to drive the acquisitiveness which is at the heart of Collecting. Face it - the thrill based on scarcity is gone. Sure HL methodically stamps out marvelous replicas - they continue to get better year after year and there are truly many little gems among them. But the target audience is now the giftware buyer. Desirability based on scarcity is a thing of the past. There are more than enough of almost every model to go around - and if there isn't HL will sell you a 'close enough'. HL will make anything they think will sell. They successfully built their reputation on the back of the Collector, but a thriving secondary market is no longer needed to maintain their current momentum. I think this point is obvious as there is no thriving secondary market - ie, a market based on price appreciation - and has not been one for a few years now, and HL is showing no signs of being adversely affected. This message is not intended to say anything negative about HL, but simply lay out my view that a secondary market is no longer a necessary condition to their success, as it was in the past.

Long term Collectors came to the line because of the secondary market. There are fewer and fewer *new* long term collectors. This is reflected in the forum audience itself. How oftern have we seen folks burst on the scene bubbling with excitement which lasts for a year-and-a-half, sometimes three. Sure, there are some who become permanent community members, but the number who do grows fewer.

Quote:

Tim I hope your wrong about Harbour Lights and their lack of the need to produce limited editions.

Perhaps I am wrong. However, at this point I think HL could take off the numbering on what are today LEs, and it wouldn't make any difference, because the 'Limited' part no longer drives sales to all but a few. Or put differently, there is no long term value in the Limited Editions of today, because there is no long term Collector marketplace. I'll guess HL would prefer to do this as it would give them the flexibility to sell into success and to more quickly kill off less popular pieces once they 'sell their fill' - heck they've taken to doing the latter anyway, by discontinuing a run before its full size is met. Maybe things will change - that's been the mantra of old line collectors like Sean and myself for the last several years - who knows what the future will bring. Maybe at last Goat Island will be sought after on a thriving secondary market - who knows. :-)

Excuse me for getting a bit off topic for this thread - sometimes that happens in the fog.

T