This is getting closer to the mark, imo, but there's still work to be done. Btw, I don't think of Collectibility (capital 'C') as synonymous with scarcity, although scarcity (supply relative to demand) is indeed one factor in determining it. More on that later...

By the way, Bill, its very nice to see someone looking at numbers in an attempt to come to grips with the issue. Keep at it. I'll encourage you to read some of my earlier, dare I say seminal, studies, here and in BTN, where actual formulas for arriving at an 'Index of Collectibility'^TM are laid out. Time to retirement, as well as time since retirement, and edition size are inputs to those formulas. (E.G. Here, Here , and Here .)

JC, foxy as ever - he knows me too well, is hot on the trail. By now, many have heard of my 'Theory of Monetary Equilibrium'. It says there are only so many dollars the world at large is willing to spend on Lighthouse stuff. For example, money spent on a Scassis is money not spent on a Harbour Lights Limted Edition.

Now this might lead one to speculate that the more different lighthouse models available for purchase, the more diluted becomes spending on any one of them. And to a certain extent, I think this is true. There will always be folks who value quantity over quality, who would rather have 5-7 Little Lights instead of a single LE. - but I don't put them in the Collector pot. And while I think the expansiveness of choice does impact spending, the fundamental question remains: Why are LEs less popular? While there may be more choices, why are people making the choices they do - particularly, choices or non-choices about LEs?

Many of the comments made thus far are part of an answer. But I think there is still one or two factors not yet touched upon (not directly at least). For now, I'm content to let the ferreters ferret further. Have at it some more...we're getting closer. :-)

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/im