Very interesting lists, Bill. During 1997-99, I too went through a rather rigorous exercise to determine 'what to buy' based on price relative to scarcity and likelihood for appreciation. During my analysis I developed a formula based on retirement date and the number of days it took a piece to retire. The formula was then revised to account for edition size. Its primary goal was to suggest priorities for making purchases - iow, when faced with a choice of buying one model vs. the other, it suggested how to make that decision.

Readers may view that formula, its results, along with associated information here: HL Factoid #11 part 3 - What to Buy? There you can also get secondary market pricing data from 1997 and 1999 for the top 45. (For example, in 1999, Ocracoke went for $425).

In 1999, when asked to look into the future as of 2001, (basically projecting ahead via the formula), the following prediction was made for the Top 15:

1. CH1
2. New Point Loma Mini
3. Coquille
4. REXA
5. Rose Island Mini
6. NPL
7. Burrows Island
8. Barnegat
9. Montauk
10. Red Legacy!
11. CH2
12. Cape Neddick
13. Point Arena
14. Portland Head
15. Ponce de Leon

I'll leave it to the historians to gauge the predictive accuracy of the above for 2001. And I'll shamelessly polish my own fog horn by observing several Forum Collectors have followed the formula's suggestions with good results.

While there are differences between your top picks and those from the past, the one model I'll single out that should be on anyone's 'pick for potential' is the NPL Mini - second only to CH1.

T