Someone upstream was looking for philosophical debate. After years of study I can definitively tell you there are no listings in the Yellow Pages for Philosophers.

Deb W. observes:
>>I do believe the GLOW pieces are having an impact, and now the signature series. <<

There has been considerable discussion on this topic over the last few years - much of it can be found in The Fog Signal Building Archives.

By producing artistic open editions of the same lighthouses they model as collectibles, Harbour Lights is dancing along the shoreline of the future on moss covered rocks. They are betting they can continue to generate additional income from GLOW sales without so irritating to the point of disenchantment that hard core group of collector's who assure them regular sales of Limited Editions. Those of us who dance with HL sometimes get lost in the whirl of the 'Tall Tower Two-Step' and we're often adverse to considering the tune that sets the tempo.

Imo, GLOWs and the 10k LE edition size have hurt sales of Limited Editions. Both of these result from efforts on HL's part to 'cash-in'. With all its warmth and fuzziness, HL is there to make money. But please don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting this is in any way a bad thing - we all want to feed our kids and drive to work. (Despite the desire of certain parties to penalize personal success by disproportionate taxation, capitalism is still The American Way.)

The question is simply: is cashing-in worth its price? Different points of view will have different answers.

Recent reductions in edition size (Gatun Locks, Hillsboro, etc.) are efforts to appease the hard core collector. This will shore up the sense of rarity attached to the line and give hard core collector's something to get excited about. At the same time GLOWs are getting more and more elaborate. HL obviously wants to have their cake and eat it too. :-) don't we all.

It would be interesting to see if HL has done a business model projection that shows they can subsist solely on Open Editions and 'add-ons' such as ornaments, figurines, ship models. By making them larger and more elaborate, HL has slowly but successfully managed to increase the price of GLOWs to about where LEs were a few years back. There is nothing that indicates LEs are that much more expensive to make, although they are riskier. With models such as Navesink and Sannibel HL has tested the waters to see how much more its collector's are willing to spend on LEs - I'd say most folks aren't gonna pay much more than the price of Sannibel for a very well done retail release. There are obviously price points beyond which the typical hard core collector will not (or cannot) go on a regular basis. Perhaps HL believes they've found the sweet spot with current GLOW pricing.

I have collected coins and stamps in the past, but Harbour Lights models are the only "manufactured rarity" I've consistently acquired. So I'm not that familiar with the Wide World of Designer Collectibles. I will comment that I can't think of any manufactured rarity that has endured as a collectible over a long period of time. There are some things like Barbie dolls that have been around for quite a while, but these did not start out designed intentionally to be collected. If there are long term (25+ years) successful 'intentional collectibles', there's probably not many of them. Therefore, if the future continues to resemble the past, we should conclude that the lighthouse model *collectibles* market has a limited lifespan. I'm not talking here about things like GLOWs, but those models capable of generating sufficient interest to sustain a demand greater than supply and thus drive a thriving secondary market.

One presumes HL wants to survive even if the core of the LE collecting community shrinks to a point where it cannot sustain the company on its own. So how can they do this? One answer is artistic appealing GLOWs. The downside, of course, is that this 'cure' is itself slightly toxic - the Open Edition is hastening what *history* suggests will be the inevitable demise of the LE collectible marketplace. The trick for HL is keep this going for as long as they can - the mossy rocks are slippery, but HL hasn't lost their balance yet. An equally interesting trick is how should collectors react - at least those who hold dear their collections for value as well as beauty.

Will the LE market revive? Perhaps. On the one hand given the present day economic prosperity you'd think the LE collectibles market would be on the upswing. On the other hand "things" - as opposed to intangibles such as "money" - tend to grow in value during harder economic times. Are we in the midst of a long term decline in the value of LEs and can't see the forest for the trees? I don't know the answer here.

There are reasonable claims to be made that GLOWs encourage lighthouse model collecting. However, it is unclear if the presence of GLOWs has increased the number of persistent LE collectors. If GLOWs continue to diminish the long term value of LEs then I think the answer is more likely 'no - GLOWs do not contribute to the number of folks who collect LEs'. The number of collectors relative to the available models is a major determinant of supply and demand - when demand slips - as suggested by declining price - we have to ask ourselves what can cause it to increase?

At this juncture I don't know what are those factors that are likely to happen to cause an increase in the number of LE collectors and thus re-invigorate the LE market. One might conclude that such factors will not come into play and the market is in a permanent decline. I'm sufficiently uncertain to draw this conclusion myself at this point, but I'm skeptical enough of their occurence (whatever they are) not to stick my head in the sand and pretend this is only a temporary market downswing. To quote Babe the pig: "Tra la la, tra la la".

Don't get me wrong - GLOWs are not The Great Satan. There are other *possible* explanations why LE prices are down:
- Belief that it is very difficult to obtain a complete collection.
- LE prices were artificially high to begin with and the market is righting itself.
- Only within the last 3 years has pricing information been widespread; again market leveling.
- Auction formats force a different market dynamic than individual secondary dealers.
- People promote the idea that GLOWs may experience a rise in value similar to LE's, thus leading to a failure to discriminate in one's purchases.
- etc. etc.
- There is not enough difference in perceived value between newer fancier GLOWs and LEs.
- Lighthouse collecting is a fad and inevitably follows the path of all fads.

Don't underestimate HL's design and marketing skills. They're willing to try different stuff and they do respond to customer input. The fact that the average age in the US is rising suggests that HL may be able to string out their success for many more years. This is based on the notion that older folks with their heightened appreciation for history will keep alive a collective interest in lighthouses.

We'll just have to wait and see. Hopefully we'll get a more interesting response than 'collect what you like', but let's continue breathing in the meantime. :-)

Rgds,
__
/im
[This message has been edited by JTimothyA (edited 07-29-99).]