I haven't tracked sales to the point where there is enough data to substantiate my hypothesis. However what I have seen, coupled with general observation of the market over several years leads me to speculate that the HL market, like many other markets, is cyclical.

For the sake of discussion I'll suggest the HL 'season' runs from October through April-May, peaking through January-February and closing with the changeover in Collector Society years. Now I don't know if more pieces are purchased during that period, but I suspect prices are higher in that time and lower in the 'off season'. With a bit of reverse logic, it would seem to make sense that if prices are higher, there are fewer pieces on the market. What I'm not certain about is demand - higher demand often means higher prices, but then so does lower supply.

What factors could explain the HL Season? Speculating again...

1. While lighthousing is certainly an outdoor & travel activity, lighthouse collecting can be enjoyed when the weather drives us inside. During the 'off season' months folks tend to spend their money on outdoor activities.

2. The Holidays tend to bring out the collector in us and also in folks who aren't full-time year-round collectors. There are presents to buy!

3. The November-January timeframe is when we get the most news about new releases. (I'm actually surprised to hear about the American Shoal released thought to come before years end - thats an exception.) New releases get collectors excited but typically these trickle out during the first several months of the new year. With interest peaked and new models not yet available, folks try to fill a hole or two (or six) in their collections.

It will be interesting to pay a bit closer attention to the market over this Winter to see if the hypothesis is born out. What do you other market watchers think? Does HL have a Season?

Rgds,
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/im