Thanks for the Product update, Paul.

Yes, the numbering of "released" pieces is very confusing. Point Arena, for instance, in the Collector's Guide states that the highest number shipped to a dealer was #5428. The edition amount was 5428. (Coquille River would be another example). This would lead me to believe that I would not find a Point Arena with a higher number than 5428, since production was halted before the entire "Production Run" was completed.
There are numerous other cases in the Guide where the Production Run was not completed. Charlotte-Genesee, for example shows an edition of 7,100/9,500. I must believe that #7100 was the last number that was shipped to a dealer. If what you are saying about the flag numbers being NOT the actual number of pieces shipped and that #9500 Charlotte-Genesee could possibly have been shipped (with somewhere in the middle 2,400 having not been shipped to dealers and subsequently destroyed), then I COULD NOT trust the amount of any Limited Edition actual release.
The Collector's Society pieces, with their low Editions seem accurate, but the "Timed" editions need to be quantified when the TIME has ended. And the OPEN Editions with their "letter" coding for year of production is worse yet. How many are made each year seems vary arbitrary. I have seen some in the 5,000 and some in the 6,000 per year ranges; but then again they are OPEN so...

I NEED to believe that the Flag Number on the last piece produced is the last piece of the Production Run. Therefore, I believe that finding a larger flag number than the stated edition amount simply means that the Edition number was incorrect. (Of course, authentication of the piece may needed).