I'm willing to be convinced that HLs, as an independent entity, is making a profit. But I'd be very surprised if that were the case. And even if it were, one has to factor in that new owner would have increased costs to cover the loss of support that Lighthouse Marketing and Lighthouse Depot provide now.

I believe that we collector's agree that we'd very much like HLs to continue is some fashion. But I've asked myself, if given the means, would I buy Harbour Lights? The answer is no. I simply don't see a viable business.

Now, I will admit that sometimes the 'big picture' is hard for me to bring into focus. But there are many challenges here. Any business has fixed costs. Salaries, cost of goods, marketing, etc. You can fiddle with those costs, tweak them here and there, but you cannot eliminate them. To stay in business you have to have enough revenue to consistently cover those costs. To grow your business, you have to have enough revenue to consistently exceed those costs.

I don't see HLs having that kind of revenue. To get pieces manufactured HLs has contracts with China. Those contracts are most likely some sort of sliding scale for discounts vs production. Buy 25% of the anticipated 1,200 pieces, pay X per piece. Buy 50% of the anticipated 1,200 pieces, pay X less 10%. Buy the full 1,200 pieces, pay X less 30%. Or something similar.

Those costs are fixed costs. They are the price of admission to the market. And chances are they are only break-even until the production run gets well into 1,200 pieces. So what do you do? If you take the run in pieces, you drive up your overall costs with multiple set-ups on the line, multiple shipments, etc. If you take all 1,200 up front, you take all the risk of not selling them out. Buying 1,200 and only selling 337 isn't good business, even though one can say that on a per piece basis, you made a profit. But you haven't made enough money to cover all of your costs. You have dollars sitting on the shelves in the form of the 863 unsold pieces.

There are old timers here on the Forums who have heard/seen me say this before. HLs longevity has been challenged since they were founded. There are only so many lighthouses to make replicas of. The Youngers did a great job of trying to diversify their lines and develop multiple revenue streams. Limited Editions, LLOMs, Anchor Bay, GLOWs, the balloons, etc.

Some of those worked and worked well. LEs and LLOMs probably the best. Others never caught on. The balloons and Anchor Bay, except the Coast Guard ships, which seem to have found a niche. But, as the potential owner of HLs, ask yourself what is left to do with these lines?

How many LLOMs can one seaside gift shop sell for the local lights? They've been available for several years now. Is that a growing or a declining market?

How many LEs are left to do? How many of them are well known lights and likely to sell out while attracting new collectors? Are LEs a growing or a declining market?

What about overseas? Expand internationally? HLs efforts there didn't work. But it would seem that maybe there is some market there. If another company hasn't already taken a page from HLs and opened up for business in their home country.

All-in-all, I just don't see a viable, long-term market for HLs. I think that HLs did great stuff to manage the 20 years that they have had. But I won't be surprised to hear official confirmation that they have closed their doors.

I hope I'm wrong. There are Fresnel Lens' that I'd like to add to my Lens shelf!

Rick