Max,

There is always hope. Look at what the Tampa Bay Rays did this weekend as they chase a playoff spot!

But, unfortunately, I agree with Dave. I think HLs, as we know it, has had it's run. I don't see a market in these economic times.

In my view, HLs market has been shrinking for a number of years. There are many reasons. Some I think were self-inflicted, some were out of their control, but just as devastating to their business.

Out of their control? The economic meltdown. I think this was the last straw. People just have to prioritize their spending differently today than they did before the mortgage/housing crisis and the loss of so many jobs. The question of what about tomorrow is much more vivid in people's minds.

So the spending evaluation is 'I have $100.00. Do I 1) pay myself and save it, 2) pay a bill or 3) buy a Harbour Light that I really don't a place for anyway'. More and more people are picking 1 or 2 instead of 3.

HLs also was a victim of their own success. They made great stuff. Stuff that got better and better over time in terms of detail and craftsmanship. Those things don't come cheap, even in China.

I believe that HLs, in the Younger's hands, did all that they could to keep the per piece cost down. I looked at a couple of random years of the online catalog at harbourlights.com. In 1992 the average cost per piece at list was $65.57. In 2001 it had only gone up to $71.00. That's not bad. But how did they do that, even if good craftsmanship costs more?

Well, in 1992 there were 14 pieces released. Cost to purchase all of them was $918.00. In 2001 there were 24 pieces released, not including GLOWs. Cost to purchase all of them was $1,704.00. (If HLCS membership was $45.00. It was about that)

So, the per piece cost was still reasonable, but the cost to 'have them all' was way up. The increased number of annual releases was in response to perceived collector demand. But I think it had the unintentional consequence of making collectors evaluate their collections more closely. What were they collecting? Why were they collecting it? And so forth.

I know it did for me. And the net result in my case was I bought many fewer HLs pieces. And shrunk my contribution to HLs revenues at the same time. I think a lot of collectors were doing the same thing beginning around this time.

What has happened since? In 2011 there are 13 pieces listed at harbourlights.com. This could be a good thing for cash strapped collectors. But the average cost of a piece is up to $101.92, or $1,223.00 to by them all.

There is probable a role for edition size in this discussion as well. Edition sizes in 2010 and 2011 were 1,200 for Limited Editions. From a HL corporate perspective, that is a lot less overall revenue. Even if editions sell out, which I don't think that they are.

So, if you're still reading, that's the long way around to say that I don't think that sales cover expenses any longer. Economists are saying that the economic recovery may take several more years. In many places real estate values aren't expected to approach the peaks of the mid-2000s for many, many years. Even if one divides those time frames in half, we're still talking years, not months. Too long for a cash strapped company to hang on and hope for the customers to return.

Unless HLs, as a business, can figure out how to cut costs and increase revenues, without compromising the product, I don't think they can remain viable.

One man's opinion, but I'd love to hear what other's think.

Rick