A few comments on this thread...
Let's acknowledge for the moment that Bill is correct - there is a lack of recent retirements. What can account for this?
1. Sales may be down.
2. Or - the overall supply of HL models has increased relative to sales such that the rate of sale is not keeping pace with the rate of increase in number of models placed into the market. Iow, sales aren't down but demand is constant relative to increased supply.
3. Or - no single model has caught the eye of the collective sufficient to create a run on it.
What factors may be at work that might account for these possibilities - particularly 1 and 2? The following are conjectures:
The GLOW factor: I suspect GLOWs *are* starting to eat into sales of LEs. I've heard enough secondary dealers make this comment to believe it. Price, shelf space (marketing), and the increased aesthetics of GLOWs may be factors here. If there were no new GLOWs would LE sales increase?
The Thomas Point Affair Backlash: There is a big drop off in multiple purchases by 'investors'. We saw a surge in the purchase of multiples shortly after the early immense poplularity in models such as Alcatraz and Thomas Point. This caught both dealers and collectors off guard - many vowed not to be surprised again, and it accounts for Middle Bay and Drum Point going so quickly. (I previously dubbed this 'The Thomas Point Affair'.) Lotsa folks who bought multiples in hopes of a repeat of this phenomenon wound up holding these longer than they planned and didn't get a quick profit of the size they dreamed. This has led to a substantial reduction in the purchase of speculative multiples. (I wonder if Harbour Lights themselves may have got caught up in the wonderment of this sales spike and this gave support for the in-house advocates of the production increase to 10,000.)
The Bob Vila Effect: People have run out of display space and are now spending their money on remodeling or a new house (particularly with interest rates where they are today). This may seem like fruitcake but just maybe the $150-$225 a month that could be spent on lighthouses is now going into the Corian and SubZero piggybank. :-)
The Only So Many Wackos Factor: The number of collectors who are going after the entire LE collection has not grown at anywhere near the same rate as general collectordom. For new collectors, the overall size of the entire line-up makes it more a daunting task to seek them all. And obviously appreciation has made it more expensive to acquire just the 5500 series today as compared to two or three years ago. Not as many wackos means not as many additional purchases for a light they might not otherwise buy.
The Tourist Factor: Recent releases, while superior in refinement, are not of lights as widely popular as many earlier models. Not as popular because they are not typical tourist lights and thus not as appealing to the souvenir buyer who is not a 'lighthouse nut'. I believe this explains why Cape Florida *is* a retiree. (Afterall how many people go to Execution Rock for vacation, much less buy it as a souvenir?) The further down the list of available lights from which HL draws its models, the further the line will get from those lights likely to be seen and souvenired by tourists.
The Self Fulfilling Prophecy Effect: The fact that there have been fewer retirements, coupled with the slowing in the rate of appreciation of rarer pieces and the relatively small appreciation of newer pieces , may cause some people to defer purchases they might otherwise make if they perceived the HL market is hot hot hot. Thus the perception there are fewer retirements is leading to fewer retirements.
Who knows if any of these conjectures are playing a role in the decline of retirements. Nothing I observe in current activity or on the near horizon leads me to think we'll see a sudden rush to retirement for a number of pieces. I don't even think we've seen the flurry over NPL that both JC and I predicted would be tied w/ the 2nd Reunion.
Actually think Bill's QVC idea is not such a bad one after all. Definitely not as a regular kinda thing but as a one-time or once-a-year event it might give the market the spark that it needs. Even AT&T may need an occasional boost from Herr Greenspan when the situation warrants.
From the Fog Signal Building,
__
/im
[This message has been edited by JTimothyA.]
