The difference between us having 500 forum exclusive LE’s to sell and Harbour lights having 500 of their regular limited edition to sell is this.
Harbour lights would have to spread the 500 to their dealers. It would instantly retire. At that time you could not order anymore from HL.
Each dealer would only get a few to sell, some dealers would get none. Most dealers would instantly sell them with auto shipments and word of mouth to their customers. Panic would start with collectors, that they may miss the boat and many would begin searching. A demand would start and the price would rise relatively quickly. Some collectors seeing the increase in value may see opportunities to buy extras. This again adds to the increase of its value. This scenario is what happened to the White Mac. Many collectors never even had a chance to buy it retail. The small production of 500 instantly got absorbed into the menagerie of HL dealers and many collectors had to pay two to three times the retail to get one.

The forum exclusive on the other hand is offered from one source, this forum. If we follow the same path as the ELL, the exclusive will be offered to all forum members first. Only being one outlet, it takes longer to deplete the 500. The Erie Land light took a little over a year to sell out the complete batch. The limited lighthouse depot’s Halfway rock took closer to two years.

So with this in mind there is no hurry to order, right?

No way buddy!!

First of all, if every thing is done the same as the Ell was handled the more valuable double-digit lights will get bought up first. The Double digits generally have a higher secondary market value, and this exclusive may be the only way some collectors will have a chance at a double digit.
The other thing is that we have the list of all that have bought the 490 Erie Land Light.
There is nothing like having our hands on 490 sales. With all this in mind plus and with some inside information I can not discuss, I expect this one to sell out way before the time ELL did.

I am going to put myself on the line. This is totally my prediction. I feel that this time the Forum exclusive will be depleted within 1 to 3 months. Three months only being because of it being sold in phases like we did the ELL.

The good news is that those that watch the forums delinquently should have no problem getting one or even two.