What lighthouse will retire early in the future that has not reached it's allotted production number? Let's see who make the right guess.

I say it will be Navesink. Expensive, more difficult to come up with the cash to purchase, and more difficult to display.

Bob

Gotta disagree with you about Navesink. About 2/3rds of the 9,500 edition have been shipped to dealers. Been on the market less than 2 years.

It's an important part of the "got everything" collectors since it's SRP of $245 means not a lot of speculating is going on. IMHO

Wind Point and Round Island were retired after being on the market approximately 1,500 days. Is the nice round figure a mere coincidence? It smells of a policy change at Y&A to me, maybe a change that had been decided upon some time ago but only kicked in at 1,500 days. Would Y&A dare to be so predictable? If so, then Selkirk, Cape Meares and Brant Point are the heirs apparent, and should all be bumped within the next year or so. Unless the outcry of Wackos influences this alleged policy before then, of course!

I wouldn't completely rule out Navesink, though. Although 2/3 may have already shipped to dealers, the ones I see tend to be shoved in the back of the displays with substantial coatings of dust. It's my guess that the orders have leveled off for this one. I hope I'm wrong. In any case, I don't see Navesink as a frontrunner for early retirement.

Even amidst possibly slow sales, Navesink does have it's uniqueness going for it. Since there's nothing else like it, Y&A might be slow to force this one into retirement. I think they have sense enough to know they can never go back once this one is gone, and eventually, 9500 of these will sell.

I agree that there's probably little speculation surrounding Navesink. And as John points out elsewhere in his Theory of Dispersion, that's probably good for secondary market potential. The longevity of Navesinks on dealer shelves may actually be good for the secondary market potential as well -- the longer they stay there, the worse their condition tends to become. That might translate into a short supply of pristine pieces later on. (I haven't completely thought out this last idea, and I'm not sure if I believe it myself. Somebody whack me if this is like, 404!)

-Pygmalion [bracing for a whack from Tim]

Early retiremets?

I am betting that we will not see any Younger & Associates induced early retirements in the near future. After the feedback they received from Wind Point & Round Island, (As everyone knows, Y&A likes feedback, and for the most part listens to their collectors) I think we will see edition size decrease before we see another early retirement.

Just my thoughts,

-Todd

How About?

The number of days on the Market approaches the remaining number of HLs not shipped to dealers.

Days on market ><= (9500-shipped)
Round Island
1496><= (9500-7948)
1496><=1552
Wind Point
1496><= (9500-7783)
1496><=1707

>>The number of days on the Market approaches the remaining number of HLs not shipped to dealers.<<

Interesting idea. Fortunately our samples are too small to see if there is any real world correlation, but this is clever, Bob.

Lets clean up the math a tad, and also look at Burrows - the only other forced retiree due to lack of sales. (dom=days on market, edif=edition size differential at retirement between announced and actual)


Round Island.. dom:1496 edif:1516 edif-dom=20
Wind Point.... dom:1496 edif:1717 edif-dom=221
Burrows Island dom:0915 edif:2937 edif-dom=2022


HL was obviously more patient when they were younger - at least younger than Younger is now. :-)

We really should be in the Numerology forum. But since we're talking about numbas - congrats to Sean for posting message #400 in the FSB. (Took us 81 days to get to 400).

Rgds,
__
/im
[This message has been edited by JTimothyA (edited 02-24-99).]

OK, so Navesink is not the next early retirement. I understand. Anyone guess which one will be?

Bob also Moby