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Why are LEs less popular today? #79163 01/01/03 05:51 AM
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Why are LEs less popular today? ...
than they were when they were more popular.

Ok, they're still popular with many folks in this forum, so this is not so much a question about what you like, but a question about why the demand for LEs has slacked off. Or put differently, what factors caused them to be or become popular that no longer obtain today?

I'll roll it all up into a one word answer: Collectibility.

So what factors influence Collectibility? And out of those factors which have had the greatest downside impact on market demand (or popularity) for LEs?

I'll toss in a few considerations to get this started:

Price: - does price determine Collectibility, or is it merely a measurement of it?

Aesthetics - it would certainly seem that aesthetically appealing models would be more Collectible than unattractive ones. Many people think the models in the LE line have become more intricate, detailed, and generally more aesthetically appealing as the line has grown over the years. While HL continues to be innovative in their use of materials that enables the sculpting of pieces that could not be made well from resin alone, I think its reasonable to say that the general level of aesthetic appeal has been very consistent over the last 3-4 years. Sure there are a few real stand-outs, and a few that are relatively less stand-out-ish, but overall the recent aesthetics are top-notch for their genre. (nobody makes a better mass-produced lighthouse model.)

So I'll postulate that a lessening of aesthetics has not been a factor in the lessening of demand.

Supply - Here we get into a dodgy area. Many Collectors gravitate toward rarity. Look at stamps and coins - the most expensive of these tend to be ones of which there is the fewest. (Think of original art work - for the best example here.)

In the case of HL LEs, the edition sizes have grown smaller. In 2000 there were at about 4(?) models with a planned edition size of 8,000. Not true today - in 2002 there were 2 pieces with planned edition sizes of 7500 and the vast majority planned for 5,000.

So, does supply help account for the lessening of popularity of LEs? On the near side, it wouldn't seem to, as supply has actually lessened - but this is a bit harder to gauge.

Ok, enough pump priming... what say you? Why are LEs less popular today?

From the Fog Signal Building,
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Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79164 01/01/03 10:57 AM
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Well, I have said this several times in the past and I will state it once more. Harbour Lights have already produced all the popular lighthouses such as Portland Head, Cape Neddick, SE Block Island, Cape Hatteras, etc. Now each year's new introductions are the less popular lights, therefore less people buy them except for the handful of collectors who are buying everything that Harbour Lights is producing. There aren't too many of these collectors left as they are finding it more expensive as well as not having any room to display the lighthouses. Also with these new less popular lighthouses there is no tourist market to sell to. I think that is why we are seeing so many Florida lights this year. At least there is a strong tourist market there.

Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79165 01/01/03 11:51 AM
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I totally agree with you, Mike. I still believe the main core of collectors have the necessary cash to buy each and every new HL but are running out of room to display and store them. Just think of the square feet of storage age needed to store two hundred plus boxes. Then, exactly how many HL's can you put on display without overcrowding your display areas.

I've often wondered how many HL's go to tourists who have no real desire to own more than one or two of these lighthouse replicas. I like to consider myself as a "non-tourist" on Block Island because of the number of days I spend there each summer (35-40), but that's how I got started in HL collecting when I purchased Southeast Light back in the summer of '94. I didn't even purchase another HL until September of '97. I think many of you know the rest of the story from there.

smile Bob smile

Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79166 01/01/03 03:05 PM
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Could it have anything to do with the alternate choices of GLOWs, and TLLOM as well as lighthouses produced by other makers (most of whom are out of business now)???

(Was that really me who posted that?)

Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79167 01/01/03 06:11 PM
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Exhibit A: Just for reference, let's take a look at some of those popular (meaning, generally well-known, or famous, American lighthouses) 5,500 edition pieces and how long it took them to retire:

Cape Hatteras, 35 months
S.E. Block, 28 months
Portland Head, 25 months
Cape Neddick (the fastest of the bunch mentioned above), 14 months

Other popular lights:

West Quoddy, 48 months
Boston Harbor, 42 months
Sandy Hook, 40 months
Old Mackinaw Point, 36 months
Tybee, 28 months
Hilton Head, 23 months
St. Augustine, 23 months
Ponce DeLeon, 22 months
Big Red (Holland), 16 months

So you can see it took a surprising amount of time even for many of the most popular lights to retire.

Exhibit B: Many of the 9,500 edition "popular" lights are still available at retail today, particularly the 1996 models...6 years (going on 7) after they were introduced and often years after they were retired.

Exhibit C: As we can see from the published edition sizes of the 1998 and 1999 sculptures that were retired by Harbour Lights 3 years after their introduction (long before their full 10,000 edition sizes were reached), the average number sold in that 3 year period was around 5,500.

Exhibit D: The Harbour Lights "feeding frenzy" occurred during a period of strange happenings in the company's history: master molds accidentally broken, "inaccuracies" and "breakage issues" forcing pieces into early retirement, and, yes, a period of incredible creative artistry (read: Alcatraz, Cape Canaveral, Thomas Point) that generated industry-wide buzz which, in turn, trickled down into the consciousness of collectors and, more significantly, secondary-market speculators.

My conclusion: In reality, Harbour Lights' edition size increases were never justified. While a few pieces sold out at 9,500 (and I mean sold out, not just retired), the VAST MAJORITY of sculptures should've stayed at 5,500. Had the company not misread the market forces at work that were artificially inflating the demand for their product, we would have a long, happy history of natural retirements from 1991 to the present day...and a continued demand fueled by Tim's magic word: collectibility (synonym: scarcity).

A word on GLOWS: Even with the increase in the GLOW line, the '98s and '99s still average around 5,500 sold in a three year period. Evidence that the GLOWs and limited editions can co-exist IF the limited edition supply remains truly...LIMITED.

Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79168 01/01/03 06:31 PM
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"the VAST MAJORITY of sculptures should've stayed at 5,500."
I totally agree!!!

Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79169 01/01/03 07:16 PM
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Hey Bill, ...Do you have any data on how soon HL's edition sizes of 4000 sold out and retired? It seems each time a piece with an edition size of 4000 was released, there seemed to be a scramble to get one.

smile Bob smile

Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79170 01/01/03 07:18 PM
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I would like to see a few pieces at 3,500 or even 2,500 edition size.

Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79171 01/01/03 08:18 PM
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Good question, Bob. The 4000 series have pretty well retired instantly: Eldred Rock, Old St. Augustine, the lenses, and the Panama set.

Eldred Rock and the Panama set are still available at retail, but Old St. Augustine and the first fresnel lens seem to be gone.

I predict that Sand Key, Florida will instantly retire also, but the Colossus and Pharos pieces will take about 6-8 months to retire.

Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79172 01/01/03 08:49 PM
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Quote:
Had the company not misread the market forces at work that were artificially inflating the demand for their product, we would have a long, happy history of natural retirements from 1991 to the present day...and a continued demand fueled by Tim's magic word: collectibility (synonym: scarcity).
This is getting closer to the mark, imo, but there's still work to be done. Btw, I don't think of Collectibility (capital 'C') as synonymous with scarcity, although scarcity (supply relative to demand) is indeed one factor in determining it. More on that later...

By the way, Bill, its very nice to see someone looking at numbers in an attempt to come to grips with the issue. Keep at it. I'll encourage you to read some of my earlier, dare I say seminal, studies, here and in BTN, where actual formulas for arriving at an 'Index of Collectibility'TM are laid out. Time to retirement, as well as time since retirement, and edition size are inputs to those formulas. (E.G. Here, Here , and Here .)

JC, foxy as ever - he knows me too well, is hot on the trail. By now, many have heard of my 'Theory of Monetary Equilibrium'. It says there are only so many dollars the world at large is willing to spend on Lighthouse stuff. For example, money spent on a Scassis is money not spent on a Harbour Lights Limted Edition.

Now this might lead one to speculate that the more different lighthouse models available for purchase, the more diluted becomes spending on any one of them. And to a certain extent, I think this is true. There will always be folks who value quantity over quality, who would rather have 5-7 Little Lights instead of a single LE. - but I don't put them in the Collector pot. And while I think the expansiveness of choice does impact spending, the fundamental question remains: Why are LEs less popular? While there may be more choices, why are people making the choices they do - particularly, choices or non-choices about LEs?

Many of the comments made thus far are part of an answer. But I think there is still one or two factors not yet touched upon (not directly at least). For now, I'm content to let the ferreters ferret further. Have at it some more...we're getting closer. :-)

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Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79173 01/01/03 09:44 PM
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I've been holding off on this topic until I read how the comments were going. Now, I going to sum up the decrease in popularity of limited editions in two words, "GLOWS" and "Production". GLOWS were the begiginning of the downfall of limited editions. You can read it on the Forums everyday about someone willing to buy a GLOW over a limited edition because 1) less expensive, 2) better looking and 3) easier to get. My opinion on the GLOW is I'd much rather have 20 LE pieces than 60 GLOWS. At least with the LE pieces I can call myself a "True Collector" of Harbour Lights Lighthouses and not a person that fills shelves with plaster replica pieces. Also, going from 5500 to 10000 production numbers was the second reason LE began to suffer. Again, my opinion. When you have an overproduction of a LE and along comes a GLOW when the LE is still available, the cheaper, better looking and readily available GLOW is what the replica buyers will prefer.

When I was looking for my LE Cape Hatteras I must have made over 100 calls to dealers all over the country before I found it. Even though I paid secondary market prices at the time(1995) and could have bought a GLOW for $50.00, the fun and challenge of finding the LE was well worth the price of the Cape Hatteras. When I finally got my Coquille River(traded 12 LE pieces and drove 750 miles one way to get it) I never even though about a GLOW coming out so I could get it cheaper. Being impatient to get a piece, not wanting to pay the price and looking at the superficial beauty of a GLOW over the "ugly" early edition LE are the main reasons that LE pieces have suffered.

These are my opinions only and I do not want to insult anyone about their GLOWS, but, stop and smell the roses and look at what your GLOWS will be worth 10 years from now versus any LE just coming out. Even if a LE only doubles in value from $60.00 to $120.00, that GLOW will still be worth the $50.00 that you originally paid for it.

Rich confused


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Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79174 01/02/03 07:14 PM
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I have to agree with Mike. All of the most popular "Lights" have been done and what remains (IMHO) are less popular "Lights" being divided up in a more shrinking market.
I've been buying HL's since the year they came out and have seen the market get saturated by so many inexpensive brands, over the years (plus the addition of the GLOW's) that it's no wonder that the LE's are suffering, to some degree.
As serious collector's of Harbour Lights, I think that we sometimes insulate outselves from the reality of how the market really operates. With all due respect to the serious HL collector (which I consider myself to be one of those)...its the "average buyer on the street" who probably makes up for most of the sales of any given LH miniture...and they simply will not fork out the big bucks to have the "best". They are inclined to look at a piece with more of a symbolic flare than to critique its finite detail, clarity, and quality...thus...they'll pickup that $17.95 piece in lieu of that $77.95 HL limited-edition. And, while I hate to admit it... low-end brands, like Scassis, are making attempts to increase their quality so that the average buyer is even more inclined to "get the cheaper version".


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Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79175 01/02/03 08:42 PM
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Good points, Brent. And all the more reason to rejoice over the smaller edition sizes. But it will take a few more years before the damage from the 9,500 and 10,000 edition years diminishes.

On the upside, I think we'll be seeing more "reimaginings" of the famous lights, i.e. SE Block on the Move and Portland Head Light Christmas edition.

Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79176 01/02/03 09:46 PM
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I only collect the LEs of lighthouses that I have actually visited. Lots of the "less well-known" lights ARE what I have visited and I am patiently waiting for Harbour Lights to catch up to my lightlist.
There is a problem when I visit a lighthouse long after the LE has retired. Then I just go without.

Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79177 01/03/03 03:09 AM
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Quote:
the fun and challenge of finding the LE was well worth the price
The thrill of the hunt?!

MelJB laugh


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Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79178 01/03/03 10:16 AM
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I believe virtually everything mentioned above has contributed to the reduced (overall) popularity of LE's. The following applies mostly to the general population and casual buyer, as they are generally in control since the edition sizes are so large. If the edition sizes were reduced the avid collectors ( like most of us on the Forums) would have a greater impact on "popularity" issues.

Saturation - of the market and curio cabinent

Large edition sizes - controlled by casual buyer

Most popular already produced

GLOWS, GLOWS, GLOWS

Multiple issues of the same light - to the casual collector how many CH's do you really need?

Price - except to the the avid collector who buys everything, budgets creep in here .

Even though we here at the forums like to think we can excercise some form of control over the market, we are in fact only a small part of it, and must acknowledge that the "popularity" or market is realy controlled by the general populus. It becomes much more evident when one considers just how HL markets their products, aimed for a broad appeal with multiple issues at various price levels. I don't fault them for that, that is how busines ( HL, Boeing, MSoft, Dell, etc.......)operates. One is in business to make and maximize a profit.

So much for one man's ramblings from the mountains of NC,
eek eek


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Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79179 01/03/03 04:22 PM
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Why? One quick answer. SPACE and CATCHING UP. Many don't have the space to collect them all and most don't have the money to catch up. So they only by what they really want and have space for.

imho

Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79180 01/03/03 07:28 PM
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Sean, that hit the nail on the head. For me at least. I made a list a couple of days ago of the lights that I really would like to have (within reason). I grouped them into three different categories: 1) Retired "expensive" lights, 2)Michigan/Great Lakes pieces I don't have (these are the only pieces I originally set out to collect), and 3) Lights still available at retail price. In all there were about 20 lights. These are the lights I'll focus on for the time being. Unfortunately, the price was well over $1,000. For some people that may not be a problem. However, I can't justify spending that amount right now on HLs in one lump sum. It's impossible to catch up.

Jared

Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79181 01/03/03 10:39 PM
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One issue not discussed is this 2+ year "recession" we have been in. For me I dropped out of autoship because of the impact the economy has had on my income and the increase in the number of LE's rel;eased each year. I even had to sell a lot of my LE's in order to get the ones I had been to since I decided to focus on those for now. Ask any gift shop. They all are hurting right now. As evidenced by how many we have seen that are closing. Its not only the Harbour lights that are less popular. I think you will find all collectables are feeling the pinch.

Combine a slow economy with over production (10,000 edition sizes), increased number of releases each year and the space in the curio issue stated before and you have a strong formula for a decline in sales. I think Harbour Lights has seen the handwriting on the wall so to speak and has done a good job in reducing the production numbers.

The Glows and LLOM don't realy impact the LE maket that much for the true collector, as far as Harbour Lights is concerned. The hard to find LE's are already money in their pocket so they don't care if someone buys a glow instead of a revised Cape Hatteras. In fact they would rather that they buy the GLOW, because its more money in their pocket. The "true cololector" who can afford it will find the LE pieces they want. They will buy the new releases they want and the GLOW probably will only be a rare addition if an addition at all to their collection.

Once the economy picks up and people feel comfortable spending for nonessentials, the LE market will pick up too. imho.

Dale

Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79182 01/04/03 01:41 AM
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I agree Dale. The slow economy combined with my job in the ever troubled airline industry have brought my "conspicuous consumption" to an abrupt halt. I won't be buying anything beyond my must haves (Maine and Texas Issues, club and Christmas pieces and Fresnel lens)in the near future. I have thought about selling some of the pieces that I own that are not in those categories but those wouldn't bring much right now so I will hold onto them and hope that the market rebounds. Terry

Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79183 01/05/03 03:49 AM
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THE LIGHTHOUSE "CRAZE" IS OVER

Not only Harbour lights are on the shelf but many
of the less worthy at much lower prices and the selection of lighthouse related items such as clothes,and other "Nic Naks" are to be found mostly at places like Lighthouse Depot these days.Not long ago you could find such items almost anywhere it seemed in substantial amounts.Not today.


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Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79184 01/05/03 12:04 PM
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Was there ever a "lighthouse craze"?

I know there are plenty of Wackos that frequent the CF. I'm also sure there are even more people without computers or who don't utilize the Internet, that have "lighthousing" as a part of their life.

When you put the above mentioned folks on one side of the ship, then place everyone else on the other side of the ship, you will have a ship that will list so heavily to one side that it will roll over.

People come, and people go. Hopefully, the people coming aboard will outnumber those departing. The product has not changed. It's the attitudes of the borderline consumers that change.

:rolleyes: Bob :rolleyes:

Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79185 01/05/03 02:42 PM
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When we started collecting Harbour Lights in 1996 we went at it like gangbusters. This went on for about 3 years and then some things changed. Our local dealer was bought out by another company and dropped the line. Another local dealer went out of business. The dealer in our town is not on autoship and will only order a piece if a request is made. They also think they know more about Harbour Lights than they actually do and this eventually irked me to the point that I no longer patronize their store. My dealer now is about 25 miles away and is one of the nicest people you would ever want to meet.

My interest in Harbour Lights is still there but we now have 2 daughters in college so my "priorities" have changed in a big way. With tuition and books and the normal house upkeep and such there just isn't the spendable money for the collectibles like there used to be. We do still pick up an occasional light but not like before.

Maybe when the kids are taken care of we can catch up on all the pieces we are missing not to mention more room to display them as we can turn one of their bedrooms into a "lighthouse" room.

Tom

Re: Why are LEs less popular today? #79186 01/05/03 09:56 PM
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I tend to believe that the "lighthouse craze" is over. Harbour Lights just happened to have the right product at the right time. But the market is well oversaturated with lighthouse products, even Harbour Lights products and most serious collectors have run out of room.
Really, how much lighthouse stuff does one acquire and still enjoy it? Have you ever been to the Lighthouse Depot in Wells Maine? It is absolutely overwhelming. I am really into lighthouses and have been for almost 15 years now, especially Hudson River Lighthouses and have a whole room devoted to Hudson River Lighthouse stuff ( old and new) and another room dedicated to other lighthouses stuff. I simply don't have room for any more lighthouse collectibles, especially new stuff. I have a lot of old lighthouse stuff, including photos, lighthouse service bullitins, newspaper articles, prints, and all kinds of other things with no place to display them. I have over 2500 antique lighthouse postcards. Again I ask, just how much can one collect? Sooner or later one says enough is enough and gets "very selective" as to what one buys and I believe that is what is happening to the market today. At least that is true with this collector.


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