In another forum, JC asks an excellent question - Are their Secondary Market \'Dealers\'??? - and asks for factual information from people.

So as to not to distract that thread, I'm posting a follow-up question here in the FSB.

What is the Secondary Market? Is it composed of all post-retail sales, or is it really post-retail for profit sales?

My sense is that the answer to this question in conjunction with the answer to John's may answer a third question 'Are Harbour Lights Limited Editions' still a viable Collectible?'

Back in the early 90's, Harbour Lights created its line of Limited Edition models as Collectibles - that is, intentionally manufactured and marketed for sale at a higher price with limited availability. A fundamental key to their acceptance as such was the parallel development of a post-retail market where this rarity validated itself through the expression of demand exceeding avaiability. When the market placed a higher value on some pieces over others and people were willing to pay more than retail, this line of models succeeded as a Collectible.

As differentiated from things that you can acquire several of, (that is a collection) are Harbour Lights still a Collectible? It would seem there remain some models that retain a higher value post-retail (as evidenced by eBay). The numbers of these appear to be dwindling rather than growing. If this is true we would lilkewise expect the number of secondary dealers to be dwindling rather than growing. When there are no more secondary dealers, is that the end of the line (not just a handful of models) as a Collectible?

In the fog, senses heighten,
Tim

My thoughts on this subject are there is still a market for pieces that have retired and there will continue to be a "secondary" market for these pieces as long as there are Harbour Lights collectors.

I feel the term "secondary market dealers" as John used it is not totally correct however. Any seller that lists something at a price higher then the retail price is catorgorized as a secondary dealer, whether it be lighthouses, guns, beanie babies, etc. The secondary market dealer that John was asking about makes a primary living by listing and selling collectibles, either full time or part time, at a value(includes shipping and additional mark up for his/her troubles) above the higher then retail asking price of the seller. This person acts as a middle man to hawk collectibles. The seller on the forums, newspapers, super market bulletin board, etc. can also be classified as a secondary market dealer, except he/she has eliminated the middle man and the buyer can lower his/her output of cash by an average of 25%(they do not have to pay the middle mans cut of 25% handling fees).

Will there continue to be a secondary market for Harbour Lights? Yes, as long as there are collectors of Harbour Lights, those darn Open Editions don't overrun the market and new collectors understand exactly what a limited edition stands for and are willing to buy only limited editions from the secondary market as funds permit.

My definition of "secondary market" would have to be limited to those retired pieces that are a) no longer available from retail dealers, and b) are so in demand that they fetch an above-retail price.

With the exception of certain event, reunion, Christmas and "variation" pieces, the secondary market as I see it centers around the period 1991 to 1994. Anything later is hit or miss. 1997-2002 is virtually void of upward price movement (thank you very much, GLOWs and 9,500-10,000 edition sizes), and I doubt we'll see any secondary market action for at least 10 years, if ever.

Just for fun, I created a list of secondary market players in terms of their performance potential*. If you were strictly in it to make money, these would be your bread 'n butter. The majority of the rest would be losers. See if you agree. On the bright side, there are over 70 pieces listed here that collectors seem to be willing to pay above retail for. That ain't bad, in my opinion.

Outstanding Potential (over 3 times original retail price)
Cape Hatteras mold 1 (1991)
Cape Hatteras mold 2 (1991)
Coquille River (1991)
Sandy Hook (1991)
Split Rock “MI” (1992)
Portland Head Light (1992)
Southeast Block (1992)
Ocracoke (1993)
Hilton Head (1993)
St. Augustine (1993)
Key West (1993)
Assateague, mold 1 (1994)
Mu“l”kilteo (1996)
New Point Loma (1997)
New Point Loma "Mini" (1997)
Rose Island "Mini" (1998)


Very Good Potential (more than double, up to 3 times original retail price)
Burrows Island (1991)
Admiralty Head (1991)
Boston Harbor (1991)
New London (1992)
Minot’s Ledge (1992)
Nauset Beach (1992)
Old Mackinac Point (1992)
Ponce DeLeon (1993)
Tybee (1993)
St. Simon’s (1993)
Holland (1994)
Barnegat (1994)
Montauk (1994)
Cape Neddick (1994)
Big Bay Point (1995)
Rose Isl. (Reunion) (1998)
Hooper St. (Reunion) (2001)


Good Potential (double the original retail price)
Admiral“i”ty Head (1991)
West Quoddy (1991)
Old Point Loma (1991)
Castle Hill (1991)
Fort Niagara (1991)
Diamond Head (1994)
Assateague, mold 2 (1994)
Point Arena (1995)
Jupiter Inlet (1995)
New Canal (1995)
Point Fermin (1995)
Red Legacy (1995)
Sunken Rock (1996)
Edgartown (1997)
5th Order Fresnel lens (2000)

Fair Potential (above, but less than double, original retail price)
North Head (1991)
Umpqua River (1991)
Cape Blanco (1991)
Yaquina Head (1991)
Great Capt. Island (1991)
Sand Island (1991)
St. George’s Reef (1991)
Cana Island (1992)
Marblehead (1992)
Michigan City (1992)
Buffalo (1992)
Split Rock (1992)
Whaleback (1992)
Portland Breakwater (1992)
Heceta Head (1994)
Bolivar (1995)
Biloxi (1995)
Port Isabel (1995)
Pensacola (1995)
Cape Canaveral (1996)
Alcatraz (1996)
Thomas Point (1996)
Cape Lookout (1996)
Roosevelt Island (1998)

*To make my lists, I used a combination of Ebay bids, marketplace forum prices and over 6 years of fairly regular activity (buying and selling) on the secondary market---i.e. outside the retail channel. This is my personal perception of the market. Yours may differ. In fact, please let us know how you would edit this. It would be nice to have a collector-approved list.

Very interesting lists, Bill. During 1997-99, I too went through a rather rigorous exercise to determine 'what to buy' based on price relative to scarcity and likelihood for appreciation. During my analysis I developed a formula based on retirement date and the number of days it took a piece to retire. The formula was then revised to account for edition size. Its primary goal was to suggest priorities for making purchases - iow, when faced with a choice of buying one model vs. the other, it suggested how to make that decision.

Readers may view that formula, its results, along with associated information here: HL Factoid #11 part 3 - What to Buy? There you can also get secondary market pricing data from 1997 and 1999 for the top 45. (For example, in 1999, Ocracoke went for $425).

In 1999, when asked to look into the future as of 2001, (basically projecting ahead via the formula), the following prediction was made for the Top 15:

1. CH1
2. New Point Loma Mini
3. Coquille
4. REXA
5. Rose Island Mini
6. NPL
7. Burrows Island
8. Barnegat
9. Montauk
10. Red Legacy!
11. CH2
12. Cape Neddick
13. Point Arena
14. Portland Head
15. Ponce de Leon

I'll leave it to the historians to gauge the predictive accuracy of the above for 2001. And I'll shamelessly polish my own fog horn by observing several Forum Collectors have followed the formula's suggestions with good results.

While there are differences between your top picks and those from the past, the one model I'll single out that should be on anyone's 'pick for potential' is the NPL Mini - second only to CH1.

T

It's disappointing that Ponce DeLeon, Burrow's Island, and Point Arena haven't taken off as expected. Other than that, your list is holding up well.

I added the minis to my list. Forgot about them.

What about the Pharos collection? To my amazement, there doesn't seem to be a lot of demand for them, and it doesn't look like their prices will go too high. That's amazing to me, considering that there are probably only a few hundred of each in existence. These should be the darlings of the "later years" sculptures, especially since Harbour Lights tried to keep them from falling into collectors' hands.

Tim's list has stood up pretty good although I've never figured out the intrigue of the 'Red Legacy'. Different Strokes...
As a newer collector(aug 1998), I've concentrated on the Reunion pieces, Southern Belles, and selectively 'the first 17'. Obviously the CH1 and Coquille will have to fall in my lap(like anyone else) but that was what I thought about the three categories mentioned above.

As far as secondary dealers, I found some HL dealers who would jump the price on a LE as soon as HL announced they retired. Others, keep the retail price on their inventory even NOW on a Original 17. Guess who I deal with?