I'm going to throw something against the wall and see if it sticks. The question is: With the direction that Harbour Lights is going(reintroductions of limited editions, running out of popular lights for limited editions, limited editions runs dropping to 2500 pieces, lighted GLOWS, Guardians of the Night being discontinued), and leaning more towards giftware then collectibles, is the end in sight for the limited edition? Limited edition dealers are dropping by the wayside faster then you can say Coquille River. Will the dealers eventually drop the limited edition line and go strictly to giftware such as LLOMs and GLOWS? How long do you think that Harbour Lights can continue to offer limited editions that are not selling out, and still make a profit. Collectibles are not the "in thing" anymore and that is being proven by more and more collectible shops going out of business altogether. Also, with Ebay dealers selling limited editions so cheap, how many dealers can afford to still carry the line without the old 100% markup to make a profit before they will drop the limited editions?

I for one feel that Harbour Lights will discontinue the limited edition line in 2-3 years and will go strictly with the giftware line(LLOM, GLOWS, Balloons, etc). I am going out on the limb with this prediction and may be the only one that feels this way. I have tried to grin and bear the slump in secondary market values by saying to myself that I love lighthouses and the slump is only temporary. Any true collector that says they are not the least bit interested in their investment increasing in value is not being honest with themselves. Why else would you collect a "collectible" if not to have it increase it's value in the future. I have tried to make myself believe that the desire to collect lighthouse will rebound, but who's kidding who. If I were a rich man with unlimited money and space I would continue to try and fool myself into thinking that this is not a permanent situation. Only a person with money to burn would continue to buy at retail today and days later the same piece is on Ebay selling for less then half retail. Let me hear from you and get your opinions on this subject and remember these are only the rantings of an old retired Coastie getting close to social security age.

Okay, since this is going to be a REALLY long post, I am going to write it in installments, posting every couple of paragraphs, then merging them together when I'm done. I just wrote 7 paragraphs, then this stupid IBM keyboard made me do something to lose it all. It's the only laptop that I have seen that has the "Function" key, then the "CTRL" key. I always hit the former, meaning to hit the latter.

I remember the first time I saw a display of Harbour Lights. I was about 10. My grandma took me to a garden shop that was a dealer down the Jersey Shore. I saw the wall of lighthouses, anchored by the mighty Navesink. From that moment, I knew that I wanted a complete collection of American lighthouses in HL form.

Okay, okay, I have only bought one LE, the Bailey's Harbor Range. But even if I won the MegaMillions jackpot and could buy every HL ever made, I now am doubtful that that dream will come true.

There are basically three "tiers" of lighthouses. The first one is the biggie lights, like Hatteras. Those were made by HL in the first couple years, and the stock of those is empty.

Now we are on the second tier. These are the lights that are still famous to locals and "newbie lighthousers", but still are not "first tier". This is the most famous HLs are getting right now.

The "third tier" is the lighthouses only known by locals and hardcore lighthouse fans. This is what would make a complete collection a complete collection, and this is what will one day kill the LE line.


Ooh, hate to leave you on a cliffhanger, but I don't want to lose this post. Next up: What will kill the LEs.

HL now has to ration the second tier. Otherwise, they are going to run out really quick, and that will be that. There will have to be a balance of the two in each release, with the third tier slowly taking over.

But people don't want to buy the third tier lights. They've never heard of some of them. They aren't always the most attractive lights. And that's why people aren't buying.

Think about it. When was the last time you saw an edition size of 5000+? Last time I remember was one year ago, with the new '04 releases. Too many of those 5000+ editions, which we once thought of as the smallest possible, are still sitting on dealer shelves.

If I walk into the Hallmark in my town, which is my local dealer, you can see a glass case of HLs prominent in the front of the store. Cardboard cards with Mark Sherman paintings of Cape Hatteras are clearly visible, albiet faded, through the store windows.

Yet, in the past year, probably none of these pieces have moved except for when I "visit" them while buying greeting cards. I am probably the only person in my town that even knows what HLs are. Or at least one of the few. Hey, I havn't seen anyone else from here as a member of this forum.


Okay, posting this so as not to lose it. Next up: "Facing the truth."

Okay, the truth. You're not going to want to hear this, but we have to face it.

Bill and Nancy are getting up there in years. Let's not forget, just last year, Bill had major heart problems. The only person who is really an heir to the company is Kim. None of the other daughters seem to be into the family business.

Harbour Lights may cease when Bill and Nancy retire. It is going to be difficult to go to dealers across the country in your 80s. Perhaps they will just decide to end it all. I know that HL wouldn't be the same company without signings and regionals and reunions. Do you see Department 56 having such community ties as we do?

Back to edition sizes. The new Avery Point piece has an edition of 2500. That's the lowest ever for a regular production piece, to my knowledge. Get much lower than that, and the costs to produce the pieces begin to outgrow the earnings. That's another way for the LEs to stop.

Okay, new post. Next: Tackling giftware. But that's tommorow - I'm going to bed. IT'S 12:11?

My two bits: HL has been "leaning" this way for a few years now (shoving aside the loyal LE collector in favor of specialized giftware that caters to tourists) and - don't get me going! - it all started with the GLOWs...why would you buy a big clunky overdone light "station" with a 9-inch footprint and flimsy flagpole prone to breakage when a smaller, neater, cheaper, flashier, more accurate version sits right beside it? How can you prevent dealers from dumping their inventory on Ebay because it no longer flies off the shelves?

I still love the line and spend a LOT of cash at my fave dealer, and already have a few lights picked out for 2005 but the thrill of the hunt is pretty much gone now...one thing I am THRILLED about is that some of the "upper crust" that HL really listens to around here is FINALLY growing disenchanted and voicing their disapproval with the way things are going...I don't feel so alone anymore...

Okay, giftware. This, I think, will be the death of the LE.

A person who wants a replica of Cape Hatteras after visiting it for the first time has two options:

Purchase a CH102 or CH102R for thousands of dollars, getting a highly collectable, but somewhat candleish-looking, replica that they would be afraid to put on their mantle with their kids and dogs;

Or purchase a Hatteras GLOW, which is about three weeks salary cheaper, is more accurate and aestetically pleasing to the general public, and can be easily replaced if the dog gets overjoyed and knocks the child into the HL.

But what if that person wants each of their kids (not the dogs this time) to have a little Hatteras? Well, they are DEFINITELY not going to buy THEM an LE, and probably not a GLOW either. Enter LLOM.

The LLOM are a mixed blessing. On the one hand, they are detailed, inexpensive, compact, and attractive replicas of lighthouses. On the other hand, they are detailed, inexpensive, compact, and attractive replicas of lighthouses.

The same thing that we like as "fillers" for our curios and household decor, others think of as a good way to get a cheap memory of their vacation.

Basically: if you only want the HL piece as a vacation memory, then you are going to want to get a GLOW or LLOM.

Next: the problem with already releasing the "first tier" lights early. Yeah, I know that this is rambling, but I've wanted to say all this for a really long time, and it's just all kinda coming out at once.

Having already released all the "first tier" lights in the beginning. Thus, they are now worth hundreds or thousands of dollars. While this is good for us, the hardcore collectors, it is what will be the death of HL, which has to revolve around the casual tourist.

We have my Hatteras example above. But there are so many like that piece. A Barnegat is going for $200-300. If I was staying on LBI for a week, and wanted a memory of the lighthouse, am I going to spend that much on an LE if I'm not a collector? No.

I'm going to buy the $60 GLOW. Or the $15 LLOM. Yeah, they aren't LEs, and they don't have resale value, but it's nicer than that LE when my golf buddies or my wife's book club comes over, and I don't plan on ever selling it anyway.

Okay, the conclusion to my really long post is next.

Okay, wait, thought of something else. Yeah, I know, groan groan. But I've got so many thoughts!

There was a time when a large amount of HL collectors weren't lighthouse fans. They were in it for the collectability of the pieces. Couldn't care less about regular lighthouses, just the little ones.

But, as with all collectables, they fell off. I think that just about every active member on this board right now likes lighthouses as well as regular lighthouses. Note how half this board is about HLs, half about regular lighthouses? And note how the same people post in the same places?

Harbour Lights are, more than maybe any other collectable, tied to the things they represent. We have our regionals and reunions in lighthouse-heavy places. We all are just as into collecting the HLs as we are in seeing the lights.

The dropoff of non-lighthouse lovers is another reason that people are not buying HLs. There probably are not 10,000 lighthouse lovers to buy those big editions of lore. Maybe not even 5,000. Let's face it. Lighthouses are a big interest, but it isn't coins or music.

Okay, now the conclusion.

Okay, now we conclude. You must be half asleep by now. Well, maybe Rock's post perked you up midpoint.

Over my posts, which I cannot figure out how to combine on my internet setup (AOL, really hard to work with several windows, I'll combine when I get home), I have brought up several points to what will bring the demise of LEs.

• Toursits are the market for lighthouses, and the lights they visit are now worth hundreds or thousands and are not of the quality level that the average person would want to display.
• Bill and Nancy are getting toward retirement, and being the heart of HL, may cause the whole thing to end.
• The non-lighthouse loving HL collectors, who were what were keeping the big LEs alive, sold it all off, leaving the flooded market to us.

So, maybe one day soon, there will not be LEs. I will dread that day, and hope it doesn't come for a VERY long time. But when it does, we can't say that we didn't see any signs.

As long as the CF is here to talk about them forever, I'm happy!

First off - Rich I generally agree with what you have to say, but as far as the lighthouses increasing in value - I could care less. And believe me, I'm being honest with myself. As a firefighter I can't afford not to be. People don't come into my house and say "Wow, what are those worth?" They say "God, those are beautiful, have you been to all of those? What's your favorite? How many lighthouses are there?" I collect them for the sheer joy of having them. I have no intentions of ever selling them, and hopefully someday after I'm gone they'll go to someone else that enjoys them as much as I do. Granted I'm only thirty years old, so that will be a long time from now.

As far as Harbour Lights going out of business, I don't see it yet. People may not be crazy about all the other lines that have been put out, or the repeats of the LEs, but that's something I can handle. As long as Harbour Lights stays in business, I don't care how they get there profits to keep making more. I've never been one to "buy them all" (I've got somewhere in the area of 150 LEs) so it doesn't matter to me if they want to put out a repeat to make a few more bucks. My older pieces are still worth the same to ME now as they were when I first got them, maybe more so.

As far as Bill and Nancy getting older and retiring - it's possible - but this is something that they love. It's not just a job, it's a passion. I've known many people that work at their passions well into their 80s and beyond. And if they decide to cut back on their traveling, so be it. I believe Kim is more than capable of taking the reins and charging ahead, finding new and creative minds to keep us wackos happy.

My two cents for now. Maybe more later.

Jared

I've heard people with the same complaints since 1996!!!!!!!!!!!! Were coming up on 8 years so I guess it could happen but personally I'm not losing any sleep over it.

imho

Bill and Nancy retiring has nothing to do with whether HL discontinues the LE line or even goes out of business. Kim is doing a fantastic job of representing HL and is every bit a showman and energetic as Bill and Nancy. The question is when does it become nonprofitable to continue the HL LE line. I guess you could say that the magic number might be 1200-1800 pieces as Lighthouse Depot has this number of pieces made for their Historic Buildings Line. But, Lighthouse Depot also sell a wide variety of other things and hopes that while you are ordering that historic building you will buy many other items. The other thing to look at is Lighthouse Depot does not depend on lighthouses alone and can afford to sit on the 1200-1800 historic building until they eventually sell out. HL must move lighthouses to make money and if they are moving LE lighthouses that is fine, but, they are not as can be seen by the forced retirements. They may or may not be moving GLOWS, LLOM and balloons for all I know. The dealers in Ocala have gone from 3 to 1 dealer in 6 months and if that dealer did not have other merchandise to sell he also would be out of business as he still has lighthouses on his shelves from 4-5 years ago.

This Forum post is not to bad mouth HL, Bill, Nancy or Kim in anyway as they are overall the most honest and upright people/company that I have ever come in contact with. I get mad at them but they always come through and "make things right". How long can they go on with the collectible market as a whole going down the drain? That is the subject I would like to concentrate on and from the few responses that I've received(Christmas holidays or not) I can see that the overall interests in lighthouse and Harbour Lights is following suite to the collectible industry. Enough said, it's time for football(although I may give that up after the beating my Gators took last night).

I myself began my passion for these neat sculptures in 1991.I could not afford to buy a single piece.By 1994 my father ,who was station on fort warren in the Boston Harbour during the beginning of world war II,gve me my first piece as a birthday present that year.Of course it was Boston Harbour HL117.I had loved lighthouses since my first trip to the Connecticut shore with Saybrook Light my first real curiosity.Then it was a trip to Nantucket in 1976 that really set me off.Sankathy Head was an absolute gem.I joined the Coast guard reserve in 1980,mostly for this passion to lighthouses and of course the sea.
I find harbour lights doing what most companies need to do to survive.I think the pieces will come back in value and gain as well.Unfortunately,as I am an owner of several companies myself,I can tell you these are trying times from a business stand point.Its a difficult market which deals with disposable income.At present the united states and the world as a whole is seeing tuff economic times.I dont think alot of people realize what this has done to the markets as a whole.We are coming back.Business is much better and I think Harbour Lights is doing there homework.They are customer oriented and this is a big asset.They are bent on quality improvements and seem to be trying to introduce new products with a good inventory approach.Smaller LE numbers give the product more value.It is a tuff market and I think we should raise our glass as they are people who believe in something and want it to continue on without the quick buck approach.To bad others there isnt more like the Youngers as we could sure use them .Just my opinion of course.

I kind of jumped ahead and didn't read every post in this thread except for the first 2 or 3, but felt the need to put a thought from my mind into yours.

I've often thought that maybe some day, limited edition HL's may reach the serious collectors via mail order directly from the company. It has been stated that there have been many dealers closing their doors or dropping the HL line so it may be more difficult to find LE's in the future.

Rather than see the LE's disappear and Harbour Lights go strictly with giftware, I would love to see the opportunity to buy my LE's with my autoship number directly from the company through mail order. They can keep the retail price the same so the company may actually double their profits by just keeping the dealers profit out of the picture. Then maybe it would be worthwhile to keep making LE's.

I know this will never happen because the Younger Family has built too many great business relationships with many large dealers across the country. They have been with HL since its start and they are not about to abandon that good relationship. Smaller dealers will come and go, and maybe someday you might have just a handful of large dealers from which to purchase you LE HL's.

If that happend, you would not see those LE's selling for heavily discounted pricing. Large dealers know enough not to do that. It's the desperate small dealers that are forced into that position trying to move new old stock. Just think if there was no dealer dumping or discounting. What do you think the worth of your overall collection would be?

Bob

P.S. I promise to read all the other posts in this thread later. I have to get ready to pick up the 49'ers for their game against the Patriots today.

Bob,

This is somewhat off topic but did anybody show up at the stadium to watch that game?

Dennis

Not a single 49'ers fan showed up!

Only Kidding!

GO PATRIOT'S

Bert

The 49'ers gave the Patriots a run for their money in the first half, then the Pats came back to hit them hard in the second half. The stadium was full. It is always full for every game. The Patriots have over 50,000 people on their waiting list for season tickets. I did notice a lot of different faces I hadn't seen before. You kind of get used to seeing certain people pass by.

I must say the folks from the 49'ers are a class act. They also have a very large team. By that I mean the physical size of some of their players. I haven't seen such big guys since the Chicago Bears last year.

They really gave Tom Brady a hard time and should be proud of the fact that they put up such a great fight in the first half against the Super Bowl Champs.

Once again, nice folks those San Francisco 49'ers.

Bob

Bob,

Thanks for the report. I thought maybe some might stay home since there wasn't much suspense on who would win the game.

It sounds like maybe people let others get a chance to go to a real game- which is a nice thing also.

Dennis

Perhaps it is time to return to Rich's original thought for this thread - The future of Harbour Lights . . . . . .

Dave, ...We are the future of Harbour Lights. There might even be a future HL collector playing football for the 49'ers.

Bob

You may have answered your own question, Rich. Y&A will stop offering limited editions when it is no longer profitable. No doubt they want as long a run of LE profitibility as they can eek out over time.

I'm not sure a reason is that Collectibles are not an "in thing" as much as some of the key ingredients to collectiblity have left the HL equation. One is scarcity of the original, and two is price appreciation. The former connects to the latter. Scarcity (or rarity) began slippling with the commonplace manufacture of GLOWS and the increase of edition sizes to 10,000 - these events skewed the supply/demand curve that drove much of the line's excitement. Some people like having something that is truly a limited edition - its part of the attraction of collecting - indeed, it is, imo, part of the notion of 'Collectibity'. Nothing wrong with this. And some people also like having a limited edition whose price remains stable or better yet, increases over the years. Another prime reason for collecting.

As long as rarity and price appreciation were in place, the LE line was self-sustaining and could go on auto-pilot as long those factors were at work. Without them, the sustainability (profitability) of the line is less assured and becomes a balancing act between a decreasing collector base and production costs tied to volume. I think HL has done a pretty good job
at this balancing act over the last few years.

Has the number of LE buyers reached a bottom that is likely to remain stable? Hard to say. My sense is that Y&A is a little behind the actual marketplace in gauging what serves themselves best - though they've gotten better in reacting faster from where they were 4-5 years ago. No doubt they must make commitments out many months in advance which keeps them behind the marketplace curve. Wonder how they did for the Christmas season?

T

It's nice to hear from the "Voice of Reason", Tim. You really should post more often.

Bob

Tim, I read your post with great interest as usual. I agree with you especially about "Limited Editions". Limited editions means that only a certain number of pieces will be made. That wasn't difficult. The higher the number of pieces, the less the worth. The lower the number, the greater the worth. Mathematically it makes sense. Thanks for the insight. I agree with BobM, we would like to hear from you more often, but it's also nice to know that your reading the posts.

Bert