A discussion in the General Forum about the decline in HL dealer numbers turned (surprise surprise) to a discussion about GLOWS and edition sizes and the secondary market. So as not to freighten the newbies, I'll hide my own ramblings on this topic here in the FSB.

Prospects for the continued success of a Collectible are reflected in the health of its secondary market.

I presume Y&A correctly recognized their line of Collectibles would not be successful indefinitely. There are very very few lines of 'manufactured rarities' that last more than a decade. I presume also that several years ago they plotted out a strategy they hoped would: a) string out the lifespan of the LE line, and b) allow their business to continue in some form when popularity of the LE line peaked. Thus, in 1995 they started making numbered Open Editions.

One has to wonder where the LE marketplace would be today if Y&A had: a) never made Glows; and b) never raised the edition size past 5500. I will conjecture that they would have an extremely hardy and loyal group of core collectors and most models would be gone from dealer's shelves within 2 years. There would a very strong secondary market. BUT - would Y&A have made as much money with that business model as they have with the one they did adopt? Probably not.

Imo, GLOWs turned the belief that the LE line of Collectibles couldn't run forever into a self fulfilling prophecy. GLOWS dealt a fatal blow to the Collectible LE. And that was the 10k Edition Size on the grassy knoll.

I conjecture the HL secondary market peaked about the time of the first Reunion, or a little while after, and has been in decline ever since. At first the decline was almost imperceptible as market values changed from ascending to a leveling off period. After staying flat for a short while, values have been on the downswing for about a year and a half.

I cannot imagine a scenario that I can believe Y&A would adopt which would cause the market to return to what it was in May of '97 when folks were selling NPL futures on the AOL board. They will not stop making GLOWs, and it will take a while for them to realize they will need to reduce the edition size again from the 6.5k and 8k ranges down to something smaller.

The reduction in size we're seeing this year, I believe is not in response to Collector demand, but simply a business decision based on poor return on investment for the 10k edition sizes. And, as witnessed by the early retirements, an admission that they simply can't sell that many LEs.

So, yes, of course the market has peaked. The sun has set on the Golden Age of Harbour Lights LE Collectibles. And sadly, its not likely to ever come back. That's actually kinda old news. There are far fewer new collectors coming into the hobby with the desire to collect the key early pieces, and even fewer new wackos (in the original sense of that term) who want to collect them all. Don't underestimate the number of folks who were drawn in - to a greater extent than they would have been otherwise - by observing the upward climb of prices. With no history of market cycles behind it, the decline in HL values is not perceived as a strong reason to collect more, in the way the rising market was.

Not only as Miker suggests is the market saturated with Harbour Lights models, but with the addition of the TLLOM series, the HL line-up itself is saturated. Sure there will always be a few people who buy whatever HL makes. But the total number of dollars available for lighthouse model purchases is not largely increasing. Each dollar spent on one series is a dollar not spent on another. The more Minis and GLOWS sold, the fewer LEs.

From the Fog Signal Building,
__
/im

[This message has been edited by JTimothyA (edited 01-06-2000).]

Tim, I pretty much have to agree with you.

Lighthouse Ghost

The big lesson to be learned here:

Buy 'em because you like 'em.
Not because you want to re-sell 'em.

Buy 'em because you like 'em.
Not because you want to re-sell 'em.

Buy 'em because you like 'em.
Not because you want to re-sell 'em.

Tim, you're right on many points. Regarding your thoughts on new collectors I can tell you my actions on purchasing. It may have been desireable four years ago for new collectors to purchase older pieces because there may have only been 50 or so releases. When I started in 2/99, there were well over 100 for me to choose from. I decided then which pieces I would try to get and which I did not want. GLOWS also play a part in that. First I saw the Bolivar GLOW and then I saw the LE. I decided to get the GLOW instead. Same story with Tybee.

In comparing the older LE's to the more recent LE's, the detail is lacking and there is no "spark" to me. I have no desire to purchase a Yaquina Head or Umpqua simply to complete the collection.

And, as we've all mentioned before, Ebay does have a hand in the resale of collectibles. HL's is not the only line where the secondary market has been hit. Lladro and Swarovski are also selling for less than last year. The pieces are much more available than ever before. Now, you want a retired collectible, finding it is at your finger tips, and you eliminate the middle man.

I really believe that HL needs to
1. lower prices
2. lower edition sizes
3. advertise or get more publicity
4. try to attract new buyers to the line

For instance, HL's does have a more masculine sense than many other collectible lines. So, why is it not in the Cigar stores in the mall. There are two big malls in my area that have a cigar/pipe store which sell collectibles. There are no HL sold in these stores. The stores are always full of male shoppers and prospective collectors.

I still think that a show on QVC or HSN would not hurt. When Thomas Kinkade was on, everyone called and wanted more lighthouse paintings. Well, maybe the same people who would spend $350 for a 10x12 framed print, would also spend $100 for a lighthouse replica. Maybe the HL accessories could be sold on the air and that could generate more interest.

Joanne

Joanne, it's funny you should mention tobacco stores. At the mall nearest me there is a cigar and pipe tobacco store which carries Harbor Lights as well as a line as collectible steins. I'm not sure how much HL business they do, but every time I'm in there, their display case is almost overflowing, and it makes it very difficult to get a good look at what they have. I still order my lights from Lighthouse Gallery in Nags Head, NC because I know I'm going to get a light that hasn't been shuffled around in a cramped display case getting nicked by other lights. I would love to support a local store, but when I ask if they have one still in the box and they tell me that I'll have to take the one from the case it just steers me away from them.

Mike

Hi Mike,

I guess I'm just spoiled. The three local dealers I use always have an inventory in back and I usually get a boxed piece. A few times I've purchased the displayed piece and always check it carefully.

Joanne

Ok, I'll admit it. I got into HL's because of the low edition size of the LE's. I had been collecting the Danbury Mint Lights for a couple of years and have about three dozen. They were fine for the money, and I ignored the HL's because of the price. However, when seeing that the HL's appreciated in value and didn't just sit pretty on a shelf, I switched. I got into HL's just in time to see them DEpreciate. Oh well, that's life, but I still love their quality and I do like the company's general support of lighthouses. I will continue support the company because I believe that they will come back, they are committed to quality, and I have enjoyed learning about my hobby in these excellent forums. In other words, I'm hooked! See Ya!

As a fairly new collector, August 1998, and someone who has met more new collectors than those from the early years (at least 5 to 1 ratio- an unscientific number)these are my thoughts on the Golden Age of HL:
1- Even though I was intrigued by HL, it took the production of a LH that I was connected with before I became an collector.
[So the first 17 (besides CH) didn't knock my socks off initially but I've grown to love some!]
2- When I started, I realized that I could never afford to collect every LE, even if I could buy all of them at retail (which I couldn't).{East Coast initial scenario]
3- If I started collecting today, I probably would collect GLOWS because some of my favorite lighthouses in the LE are prohibitively $$$$, and the GLOWS are usually nicer because of the evolution of the product.[Currently an only LE collector]
4- The advance of information technology (Internet, collectors books, ebay, etc.) has placed a published value on all pieces and made the ability to find a retired HL much easier, and definitely much easier to sell.
(Although the increased supply (availabilty), has decreased the price.)
[Southern Belles which I never thought could be obtainable are becoming more attainable.]
5- A more educated collector now knows that in most cases he(she) doesn't have to jump on their first find of a particular HL LE because they can probably find it again in the near future for close to the price they want to pay.(instead of bidding up an exhorbitant price because you must have it)
{Big Bay, New London Ledge -green water, West Quoddy LR]
That's my 'wet behind the ears' view from a fairly new addicted LE collector(WACKO).

>>I will continue support the company because I believe that they will come back, <<

Allow me to clarify my post. I don't think that Y&A as a company is in decline.

As for Bill H.'s chant - buying for liking, and buying for holding value are not inherently contradictory.

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/im

[This message has been edited by JTimothyA (edited 01-07-2000).]

I have to agree with Paul, not that I like HL's any less. I want one of each lighthouse, and GLOW's fill that desire just fine. I don't have the money to throw away on LE's that have gone through the roof.

I still love interacting with the people at Harbour Lights, and I wish them every success, but I do think the market is saturated.

Rich

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Joanne,
There is a chain of cigar stores that carry HL & several other collectable lines. Think it is the Tinder Box (?)
Dave

Correct you are Dave!! Tell Him what he won Eric. Well Weasel58 Dave won the Cigar.

All right another succesful player! Whose our next lucky player?

Gee, can I have what's behind HL display case door # 2? I don't smoke.

Dave

[This message has been edited by Dave H (edited 01-08-2000).]