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Buy 'Em Cuz You Like 'Em #78458 07/31/03 03:51 AM
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JTimothyA Offline OP
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Almost any discussion of the HL secondary marketplace - ever since that discussion began many many years ago - can count on two things. One, a mention of GLOWs and Edition Size. And two, several messages chiming the 'Buy Them Cuz You Like Them' mantra. Its like clockwork.

The 'Buy Them Cuz You Like Them" response misdirects the discussion from 'what is happening to the market' to 'what are the motives for buying or selling'. 'Buy them cuz you like them' is an answer, just not to questions about the state of the market.

The market - as price trend - is what it is independently of the motives of those who participate in it - for whatever reason they participate.

HL Limited Edition prices have been continuously falling for several years. Why is the trend downward? Will prices trend up again? I suppose the answer is the simple one. Prices are going lower because supply has outpaced demand. When there are more sellers than buyers, prices go down. I suppose someone will disagree even with this basic principle, but suspend belief for a moment and ask yourself the more interesting question. (At least I think its more interesting.) Why are there fewer buyers?

Why are there fewer people interested in collecting, for example, the entire 5500 series? (The only real place where there is any market action.)

Is the answer to this question "Buy them cuz you like them"? Or put differently - if this advocacy for a purchase rationale is the primary motivator behind market movement can we conclude that fewer people like rare Limited Edition lighthouse models?

"Like" is something of a non-descriptor. "I bought it because I like it". Well...OK. Usually that is follwed up with "Why do you like it?" "Why do you like *that one*, rather than *this one*?

Granted some folks respond with the gut-level "Just Because" reason. For some cause they cannot articulate, they made the purchase. Or for a small number, for no reason at all!

Then there are all the other responses...

Often we'll hear the generic "I bought it because Harbour Lights are the best dang lighthouse models in the world and they're really nice people too." Well ... OK.

"I bought it because cousin Ignatz got married a half-mile from the lighthouse and we saw it at the wedding". The sentiment of a remembrance - a keepsake - who can put a value on *that*? Yes, obviously a good enough reason to plunk down the cash.

Its easy to answer the question why someone bought an HL model. But why aren't there enough people with enough reasons to keep prices even at retail? Why are there more sellers than buyers?

Do fewer people *like* lighthouse models today than six or seven years ago? For whatever that 'like' translates to, is the answer - as born out by the market - inevitably 'yes'?

Portland Head on eBay for $300. Makes me wince. Portland Head has been rock solid at $500 for a long time. "Well I really like Portland Head, but I like $300 more".

"Looks like the HL market is in the pot - if I'm ever gonna get anything outta this, I better sell now". No doubt there is a certain trend or herd psychology to some of it. More people thinking "I better sell now cuz next month I may only get $250 for it".

Collectibles are a funny business. Along with "like" - many people collect what they perceive as having value. This perception is itself a reason for "liking". People who collect often tend to seek things that are rare - rarity is part of the value equation. It would seem there aren't enough people who think 10,000 models of South Bass Island are sufficiently rare to keep it at its retail price. Why should I pay $300 dollars for an LE Portland Head when I can get a Glow for $60 that actually looks better? (You knew we'd get here eventually.)

What could drive the market up? More people buying because they like them? Well... more people buying might do it.

So let me ask you - would more people buy Harbour Lights models because they like the idea of them holding their value - maybe even going up a bit?

Would more people like to buy Harbour Lights models if they knew there would only ever be 4,000 versions of a given model and there would never be a lower price replica?

No one - I repeat - no one buys these models instead of mutual funds. We may be older and slower, but we're not dummies - after all we can afford hundreds, often thousands of dollars in lighthouse models. You can't do that if...

What would cause the demand to exceed the supply and return HL to a true Collectible?

If you haven't gathered by now, part of my function here is to stir things up... so have at it.

The Fog Bell sounds low.
A cat takes comfort in its warmth.

T

Re: Buy 'Em Cuz You Like 'Em #78459 07/31/03 09:59 AM
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I'll have to think about this a bit, but I can tell you one thing right now.

NOTHING will bring Harbour Lights back to its early glory. Nothing.

The damage is done. The GLOWS are on the verge of outnumbering the limited editions. The limited editions are so numerous that many dealers can't even display them all anymore.

There's a GLUT of product that has overwhelmed our space at home, our bank accounts, and our senses. It's TOO MUCH. And I think it would be the case even if George W. Bush hadn't screwed up the economy and plunged us into eye-popping deficits.

Can anyone believe that Sand Key hasn't retired yet? By any standard it should have retired the day it was announced. How about Pharos? It should be gone by now, too. Believe it or not (and I barely can), many of the 4,000 editions will likely be "forced" into retirement after their company-mandated 3-year run. That's just mind-boggling to those of us who were around in the mid- to late-90s.

"Buy Them Because You Like Them" isn't irrelevant in this discussion, in my opinion. It is the new mantra for Harbour Lights collectors, whether you're buying the latest model OR off the secondary market.

The damage can never be undone, so the secondary market argument is pretty much moot at this point. It just doesn't matter anymore "why." What matters is that collectors should now realize that the ONLY way to approach a Harbour Lights purchase is to "Buy Them Because You Like Them." So far I have purchased exactly **two** pieces this year. I just saw a bunch of the releases from the second half of the year and...nah, no thanks.

It doesn't mean I like the company any less. It just means that the term "collectible" isn't relevant to its products anymore. That will only come in about 38 years time, when they become genuine antiques.

Re: Buy 'Em Cuz You Like 'Em #78460 07/31/03 12:13 PM
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silverfox51 Offline
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Bill, you are a wise person wink . I have said it many times, if you want to make money, better get into something other than collecting eek . Being a person suffering from the terminal collector desease, the price or secondary value of the "market" is simply a justification for getting what you want when you have to explain it to someone else why you spent the money (usually the spouse) wink . It also can impress people when you tell them "Well this one here is worth $500" or "This one is worth $350 but I got it for $100 (Aint I a smart one for that)". With my spouse, it doesn't work that way though. She said "Don't hand me that c**p, your not going to sell it anyway!" "Buy it because you want it but don't waist you justifications on me". Smart woman :rolleyes: .
I got into Harbour Lights because I like them. They are good representations of the real thing for a resonable price. As a bonus, I've been able to get involved with a great bunch of people with a purpose to save a bit of history laugh . I have met some very interesting friends and have had some very good times since I started. I have been places I probably would not have gone to and seen things I would not have seen. That is something I cannot put a price on as it is priceless. smile .
My collection is a reminder of the friends I have and the wonderful places I have been. So, I say again, if you want to make money, find something else. If you want enjoyment, then keep the lights burning wink

Re: Buy 'Em Cuz You Like 'Em #78461 07/31/03 04:48 PM
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Yes, I'd have to agree wtith the wisdom of your arguments, especially now that EBay looks like a grand advertisement for "The Little Lights Series"
which now take-up pages rather than a few lines.
However, we may be missing the point as to why we collect(other than why we don't collect). As for
bringing into the collecting equation question,
the spouse, my answer would be- those many great Sunday rides in all kinds of weather, having
"picnic lunches" in the car because the outside temperature was below freezing and thats without the windchill factored in, just to be together to
be able to see what we love to see. And since we
have both pictures and thanks to Harbour Lights
the lighthouse replicas; all is well. Harbour
Lights has made many we have visited and every time we look at the shelves filled with fond memories we can only hope they'll make those we have visited but as of yet have not produced. For us it's an opportunity to re-visit, remember and
enjoy our time together. "Buy'em cause you like
them?" Why not. Lifes an opportunity, don't let it pass you bye(buy).


KonaSatch
Re: Buy 'Em Cuz You Like 'Em #78462 07/31/03 05:33 PM
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Bill Harnsberger Offline
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More musings on what Harbour Lights can do to increase demand for their so-called "collectibles"*

1) Instantly retire all pieces from 2000-2002. Now. Today. This very second.

2) Give each limited-edition a production run of no more than 12 months.

3) Offer a buy-back program to retailers. Pay 75 cents on the dollar for any "flag" sent to HL headquarters. Sure, the retailer loses a little money, but it's better than having inventory gathering dust.

4) Sponsor occasional sale days to Collectors Society members. There are over 20,000 active members, and this would be a good way to get rid of inventory. Minimum discount: 50%

5) Create a brand new line of "super limited" editions at premium prices. This, to me, is actually an exciting prospect. Totally re-sculpt all the favorites in unbelievable detail (Portland Head, St. Augustine, Hilton Head, etc). Edition size: 500. Price: $200 each.

Chew on that for awhile.

*For entertainment purposes only, since these things will never happen.

Re: Buy 'Em Cuz You Like 'Em #78463 07/31/03 09:57 PM
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A lot of good ideas above, but as you say Bill, it will never happen. HL is out to make money and to this end cannot even think of doing anything like the above, with one exception and that is the 12 month run.

1) Instantly retiring all pieces from 2000-2002 would cause HL to lose money on inventory that they already have made. They need to sell as many of these as possible before the normal forced retirement.

2) A production run of only 12 months would be possible and would force the fence sitters into either buying the pieces right off or waiting and buying off the secondary market. They would not be able to wait for a dealer to unload them by discounting them.

3) A buy back program from the dealer would only cause the dealer to over order in hopes of selling them at a discount or on Ebay and when that didn't happen, HL would again have to swallow the bullet by overproducing and then buying them back. The dealer would make out like a bandit.

4) Sale days to collectors would cause the collectors to wait and buy them at a discount. HL wouldn't lose any money(50% of the retail price is HL's selling price to the dealer, but, The dealer would get irrate at HL selling directly to the collector and cutting the dealer's throat.

5) Super limited editions would only cause the secondary market to fall even further by having the collector buy the super limited edition version instead of scrimping and saving to buy the retired limited edition. It would only benefit the collectors that want an easy way of filling in their open hole in their collection with a limited edition piece. A once a year super limited piece might be ok such as the Gold Golden Gate Bridge and would not flood the market.

Of course, none of this will happen as you said Bill, and the market will continue to worsen if something isn't done about it. I have basically reached my own decision on what to do and that is to continue buying until the fun is gone. That may be a year , two years or maybe more. I collect them because I love lighthouses and collecting in general.


Rich
Re: Buy 'Em Cuz You Like 'Em #78464 07/31/03 10:17 PM
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Quote:
...When there are more sellers than buyers, prices go down...
ebay, ebay, ebay. ebay 'killed' the secondary market for Harbour Lights and many other things. Or ebay 'opened up' the secondary market, depending on your point of view. The effect is the same: lower prices.

When there was no ebay, you had to go to one of those secondary market dealers. How many were there for Harbour Lights? 3-4-6? Where else could you go?

With ebay, everyone with a Harbour Lights can be a seller. You've got an audience of thousands. And you've got hundreds, if not thousands, of sellers competing with you for that audience.

OK, there may be other factors, including (gasp) GLOWs, but how many 'secondary market dealers' (using the definition of 1996) are left today? Any?

Name a collectible today that has a stronger secondary market than it had in 1996-1997.

Quote:
..Buy 'em because you like 'em...
Good advice in 1991. Good advice today.

If you've got a home full of them and they bring you pleasure. Great. If they no longer bring you pleasure, you know where to go. ebay.

Re: Buy 'Em Cuz You Like 'Em #78465 07/31/03 11:20 PM
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There are some interesting perspectives presented here, and it made me think, and in doing so it only seemed appropriate to add my two cents. As I read the posts it became apparent that the underlying question was "Why do you collect", or more specifically "Why do you collect Harbour Lights?".

1. I believe that all that who responded really like lighthouses, the harbour lights models and the company. If this were not the case lighthouses would be extinct, there would be no concern for the product, the company would be broke, and there would not be such empassioned postings on the forum, or even a forum.

2. I think that all that responded are concerned about the state of the market. Some are concerned about the falling value, some seemed concerned number of pieces being produced, and some feel like they were lulled into collecting something that has lost it's appeal (or value). I think this it is a good sign that people are as concerned about Harbour Lights being in trouble as they are about the struggling economy. Maybe HL collectors are more concerned citizens than the average citizen.

3. I think some people got into collecting for the wrong reason, or with the wrong expectation, and are looking for someone to blame for something. Glows are the problem, Little Lites are the problem, the edition size is the problem, etc. etc. etc. Collecting is like the stock market, only put into it what you can afford to lose.

When I finished reading the posts I said to myself; "Self why do you collect these things, and even more importantly should you be collecting?" The second part was a quick answer, YES!!!. It was easy because as I thought about the first part the pro's came quickly and often and the con's were very slow. Some of the things that easily surfaced in my thoughts were:

I look at my collection daily. I have built three custom cases and if I am home I look at each case daily. Those in the case by the front door that we have visited, I view as I leave the house each day, and they make me remember why I go to work. I work so that we can vacation to places with lighthouses, and afford to buy these wonderful reproductions. For the past eight years we have gone somewhere each year with lighthouses, and we make it a concerted effort to see lighthouses on our travels. Harbour lights has given us a three deminsonal memory.

I collect to have something that I am proud of. I have reached one goal of owning all the pieces including the variations (except for the Split Rock MI), and am now working on collecting all Canadian releases, at least one 2 or 3 digit piece under 300 for each release, and unique pieces that are special. If those that are in it for the money want to sell what I am trying to collect, and the price is fair, GREAT. Your lose will give me more to enjoy and my quest becomes will become more fulfilled.

I collect Harbour Lights because I like them. As I looked at the options for lighthouse models, there was no comparison. The quality is great, the price is fair, and most importantly the company makes you feel like your working with your favorite uncle. Bill & Nancy make an effort to visit with collectors throughout the country. Things like the collectors reunions, regional events, and collectors show, are one of a kind in a mass marketed industry, and bring people of similar interests together. Little efforts like the suprise ornament in the sociey box were to me a sign of something special, and a company that is excited about it's clientele, not looking only a the bottom line. Where else but a signing event can you meet a stranger and end up willingly spilling your guts on lighthouse trivia.

Bottom line "Buy 'Em Cuz You Like 'EM. If you are looking for them to grow in value, look at what value you want. Is money important, or is memories, or the thrill of the find important. I reevaluated my reasons for collecting and asked myself; "Self, is this the right thing to do?". The answer was a resonding YES!!!!!! I may change my approach to collecting, like fewer glows, or fewer Anchor Bays, but I will continue collecting lighthouses, and Harbour Lights lighthouses in particular. Thank you Harbour Lights for giving me something that I can be proud of, and enjoy on a daily basis.

For those of you with doubts that have pieces under 300 that I need, pieces that are Canadian (or California), or pieces that could be special to me, my email is bndjohnson@adelphia.net. I collect because collecting Harbour Lights lighthouses give me pleasure, and I value items by what they offer me in satisfaction, not money. It's the same reason that some people want a '57' Chevy 2 door hardtop with a 327 and dual exhausts, over a 2003 Ford Focus. There are pro's and con's, and the pro's are a personal thing.

Re: Buy 'Em Cuz You Like 'Em #78466 08/01/03 12:49 AM
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Bill Harnsberger Offline
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Bill, you are a wise person
I love how that looks onscreen.

"I'm ready for my closeup, Mr. DeMille!"

Re: Buy 'Em Cuz You Like 'Em #78467 08/01/03 03:47 AM
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Quote:
Quote:
...When there are more sellers than buyers, prices go down
...ebay, ebay, ebay. ebay 'killed' the secondary market for Harbour Lights and many other things. Or ebay 'opened up' the secondary market, depending on your point of view. The effect is the same: lower prices.
This is an interesting conclusion that merits further consideration.

A few observations...

1. Prior to the disbursal of PCs into homes and the rise of the Internet beyond geekdom, the Harbour Lights secondary market was largely controlled by a small cartel of dealers. As JC indicates there probably were no more than 6 HL marketeers. Their primary advantage was their knowledge about HL models and the relative availability and scarcity of specific pieces.

In that era, most new buyers who 'caught the fever' were not aware of which pieces were popular and they did not have a perspective on the market as a whole. Often a Collector was shielded from the secondary market by a retailer who 'could get one for you', but rarely divulged how - only that it would cost $$$.

When secondary dealers began posting Web sites with models for sale, they quickly realized that it was to their disadvantage to publish their prices. It did not take long for all the secondary dealers to cease revealing prices in public. Published prices led to price shopping for sure - secondary dealers were naturally adverse to competition amongst themselves. But more importantly published prices 'opened up' or exposed the knowledge of prices to a growing community of Collectors. When more and more people became aware of prices it got harder and harder for the secondary dealer to buy low and sell high. This influenced the existence of secondary dealers far more than secondary prices.

2. Now to eBay.

a. eBay re-opened the public availability of pricing information that had been shut down by the handful of secondary dealers. That, and the publication of price guides, coupled with published lists of edition sizes by HL led to a more knowledgeable community of Collectors.

Imo, this knowledge did not cause prices to slide. It did affirm to a much broader group of people that some models were more/less popular and thus more scarce/plentiful than others. Buyers got more savvy. They soon realized that not every HL model was worth a small fortune.

b. eBay broke some of the cachet inherent in the notion of "Retired". Before eBay, individuals going to their Mom and Pop retailer could only learn that "Retired" meant the retailer couldn't get more. 'Its retired ... better buy it now honey - we may not find it again'. I loved when my wife used to say those words. :-) Nowadays - in the rare case of an actual retirement - the 'better get it now' impulse has been replaced by 'wait till it shows up on eBay'. Which lately means as soon as a piece is released (sometimes even before!).

c. I cannot agree that eBay killed the secondary market but it did kill the cartel. eBay allows anyone to be a seller but that is not an explanation why there are more sellers than buyers.

Granted, the more buyers who have access to a wide choice of sellers, the greater price competition can become. But that works both ways. The more buyers available for a *valued* Collectible, the greater the opportunity for its price to go up. And eBay does not change the scarcity equation. eBay is not a reason why greater or fewer people "like" Harbour Lights or a reason why the models are perceived as more or less valuable.

--------------------------------

But enough analysis - time for another piñata, er, opinion :-) I've watched these Collector Forums from the day they opened to the public. If Harbour Lights models were going up in value, rest assured there would be a whole lot more people here than there are now. (I'll venture that the regularity of the forum population tends to track pretty well against the price curve.)

More people came to the hobby when prices were going up. What does that mean? I think it means that more people "like" to buy HL models when they believe the models will hold or increase in value. Why don't more people believe that?

Enjoy your Fogsignal Building,

T

Re: Buy 'Em Cuz You Like 'Em #78468 08/01/03 11:13 AM
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eBay re-opened the public availability of pricing information that had been shut down by the handful of secondary dealers. That, and the publication of price guides, coupled with published lists of edition sizes by HL led to a more knowledgeable community of Collectors.
Not sure I agree with you here St. Timothy...

The very basis of an auction doesn't set the price as a guide. An HL124 SE Block LE and one of the latest additions to the line might both start off at $50. They won't end up the same. Price is affected by the demand and the buyers. Of course some sellers are influenced by the 1998 publications of Greenbook and that other Collector Guide...

The secondary dealers didn't want to publish prices because once they did, it was easy for a potential buyer to 'shop' another dealer (who by now was aware of the first dealer's prices and could offer the 'same item' for $10 less, thereby undercutting the dealer who published prices.

...The prices in the Greenbook were determined primarily by one buyer and one seller. The buyer had a deep pocket and was investing IRA funds (not legal, so far as I know).

The seller was a person the buyer used for many of their purchases. The selling secondary market dealer obviously had a vested interest in recording higher prices because that increased the amount at which they could offer items.

Were the prices in the Greenbook EVER realistic? Probably not. A majority of items being purchased through secondary market dealers ("the cartel") weren't sold for prices as high as those shown in the 'guide'.

In fact did the group of secondary market dealers ever cooperate -- as a 'cartel' must by definition? No.

Re: Buy 'Em Cuz You Like 'Em #78469 08/01/03 11:19 AM
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What makes the world go round and makes it interesting is that there are all kinds of personalities running around in it.

Some feel a need to analyze everything they do...and some just do because it makes them happy.

Those who must analyze and justify their purchases of Harbour Lights...probably enjoy doing that as much, if not more, than collecting them.

Since the "market" is not a thing...but a collection of people with different personalities who buy & sell for their own many varied rationales...then how is it possible to determine exactly what the "market" is at any given point of time?

Stirred up?...naw, that's only for my coffee cup! Just having fun with you!

Judy smile


Judy
Re: Buy 'Em Cuz You Like 'Em #78470 08/01/03 03:45 PM
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Bill Harnsberger Offline
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I believe it, Tim! I believe it!

Sure, I started with Pemaquid in '96 because it was brilliantly done. But then I learned about all the pieces that were commanding large secondary market prices, and I climbed on board under the assumption that my collection would increase in value. I remember, early in 1997, RACING like the wind to a local Hallmark store to snatch up what might be---GASP!---the VERY LAST CAPE MAY in Maine! I'm sure I arrived just in the nick of time, mere paces ahead of an army of collectors coveting the same piece. I waited in eager anticipation for the secondary market price to TRIPLE. I was one savvy collector/investor.

Now I know better.

I won't go so far as to call my former collecting frenzy a "mistake." But I WILL say that I was surprised when the market tanked and never recovered. The spell finally broken, my acquisitions have dropped to virtually nil---although I retain an ongoing interest in their new releases. In other words, the secondary market now plays ZERO role in my buying decisions. Now I only "Buy Them Because I Like Them" (much to the chagrin of my local dealer).

That doesn't mean I've stopped dealing on the secondary market. In fact, I've gotten some great deals on Ebay (Key West for $162? "Wow!™"). But I pursue them only because they have sentimental value.

Re: Buy 'Em Cuz You Like 'Em #78471 08/02/03 01:29 AM
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Quote:
...The prices in the Greenbook were determined primarily by one buyer and one seller. The buyer had a deep pocket and was investing IRA funds...
Now *that* is a fascinating bit of HL lore!
I was also thinking of the pricing info in the publication from that chap in Georgia. (egad I must be knackered, I cannot remember his name ... Jim... uh Jim something.)

Not sure I get your first point, JC, but I do believe a broader knowledge about popularity, rarity, and relative pricing was an aid to the buyer and a bane to the small group of secondary dealers. While no one knows final auction prices on eBay when they start, the collecting of auction results is something folks began and continue to do - another way to gather data points. How much influence the gathering of pricing info had on the downward price trends I don't know - it was more of an observation than an explanation - but I suspect it had some small leveling effect on the upward march of prices on certain pieces.

Yeah, the reference to 'cartel' was a bit of a tweak. I cannot imagine sinister collusion - these folks were not DeBeers. ;->

Quote:
Since the "market" is not a thing...but a collection of people with different personalities who buy & sell for their own many varied rationales...then how is it possible to determine exactly what the "market" is at any given point of time?
Shucks Judy - all the real estate people around here tout their 'free market analysis'. Who'd a guessed it was really a Rohrshach test. ;->

Kidding aside, there are many HL collections holding pieces that cost hundreds and sometimes thousands of dollars. I'd don't know if you're someone who ever purchased a CH1 or Coquille or even an LE Portland Head or NPL. To me, it is not odd that people *think* about these purchases even though their making brings "happiness". The FSB isn't your typical charm forum. If you think this one was anal, dig into the archives - lotsa hot debate here in times past.

to BillH ... you pretty much nailed it in your first msg. And getting a Key West for $162 today *is* a good deal. (Of course we only know that because of a little market analysis - wink wink.) I felt thrilled almost six years ago today when I got mine for $100. In 1999 a typical secondary price for Key West was $335 - up by ~$155 from the year before. Good luck on finding that St. Auggie.

Obviously this thread was started in response to the Has the bottom dropped out? series. Nice to see the group is still capable of rattling off a few here in the FSB. I too believe the market will never ever return to its hey day. But I still think those early Westerns are due for a bounce. :-)

Fog finds a home on the edges of land,
T

Re: Buy 'Em Cuz You Like 'Em #78472 08/02/03 04:33 AM
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Shucks Judy - all the real estate people around here tout their 'free market analysis'. Who'd a guessed it was really a Rohrshach test. ;->
To arrive at "fair market value", an appraiser or real estate agent (both licensed) must find a certain number of comparable properties to the subject property. (comparable in this case means a recently sold property). How does one find three or more identical comps? In most cases, that is not possible. In order to make these recently sold properties comparable to the subject property, the appraiser or real estate agent is required to make adjustments...in writing. All the numerical values, i.e., sq.footage, days on the market, heated space, concessions, recorded sales price, etc. are derived from public record.

Now if you were able to apply this to the ups & downs of the HL "market"...you would HAVE to make adjustments for all the different reasons different sellers priced their now sold HL's.

Since there is no public record of what emotion drove each different personality to arrive at a price to sell his HL...then talking about the highs & lows and drawing a conclusion that the HL market is in a downward trend and is never going to recover...is...pure speculation not based on fact but on different types of personalities driven by emotions.

Quote:
Kidding aside, there are many HL collections holding pieces that cost hundreds and sometimes thousands of dollars. I'd don't know if you're someone who ever purchased a CH1 or Coquille or even an LE Portland Head or NPL. To me, it is not odd that people *think* about these purchases even though their making brings "happiness". The FSB isn't your typical charm forum. If you think this one was anal, dig into the archives - lotsa hot debate here in times past.
Btw...there's no need to delve into the archives of the FSB to know how anal it can get...I've been reading the FSB for a long time.

I also don't mind a good debate...'cause I've had plenty of practice debating with two analytical brothers for years smile

But...what's a "charm forum?"

Judy smile


Judy
Re: Buy 'Em Cuz You Like 'Em #78473 08/03/03 05:05 AM
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JTimothyA Offline OP
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Quote:
Since there is no public record of what emotion drove each different personality to arrive at a price to sell his HL...then talking about the highs & lows and drawing a conclusion that the HL market is in a downward trend and is never going to recover...is...pure speculation not based on fact but on different types of personalities driven by emotions.
Horsecollar. :-)

Pick some HL models, oh how about 10 different ones. Gather the selling price for 10 transactions of each. Do this for every year from 1998 through the present. Say thats 5 years worth of data so we've got 500 samples spread across that time. For each year take the average selling price. Plot it on a graph with price on the vertical axis and time on the horizontal. Connect the dots.

Which way does the graph go? It slopes steadly downward from left to right. Harbour Lights Limited Edition prices are falling on the secondary market. Prices are falling consistently across time. And prices are falling regardless of the emotions or reasons of either buyers or sellers. Or at least it sure looks that way to my simple mind.

If you have some evidence suggesting that knowledge of the reasons or emotions of buyers or sellers will cause the graph to look different, I'd really like to hear what it is.

Now, if you happen to be saying that one cannot predict the future with absolute certainty, then I'll agree with that, while confessing it doesn't strike me as a particularly informative to either of our arguments. Even if one knows all the emotions and reasons of buyers and sellers, one cannot infallibly predict what the next 500 HL transactions will look like.

However, if you think it is pure speculation that the future is more likely to resemble the past, then I aver we're more apt to engage in sucessful behavior if we think otherwise.

If the average selling price for Key West is $200, the likelihood of my selling one for $300 is lower than it is for my selling at $195. That likelihood of success is totally independent of whatever reason or emotion I might have for selling.

Your notion of 'comparables' in real estate is based on the same principle - when setting a price, one is more likely to have a successful sale if that price is based on what has happened to similar items in the recent past rather than any given sellers emotions or reasons for selling. And in the case of several instances of the same HL model, they are far far more similar than different. Not hard at all to find comparable Key Wests.

I'm not particularly interested in the fact that HL prices are falling. As suggested in my intial post, questions such as: would more people like to buy Harbour Lights models because they hold their value? and would more people like to buy Harbour Lights models if they knew there would never be a lower price replica? are much more interesting questions.

I believe the secondary market offers a good way to gauge the health of retail sales. Without an extended period of a *strong* secondary market, Harbour Lights would not have had the success they did. In my opinion, if HL secondary prices were going up, the *hobby* would be much more vibrant than it is. I like to encourage that.

Warm air, cool water, fog happens,
Tim

Re: Buy 'Em Cuz You Like 'Em #78474 08/03/03 01:34 PM
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Posts: 1,082
Bill Harnsberger Offline
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A little fuel for the fire:

Ebay Listing: Original Portland Head, Minot's Ledge, Castle Hill.

1997 secondary market price: Around $800

Sold on Ebay 8/2/03 for: $404

Re: Buy 'Em Cuz You Like 'Em #78475 08/03/03 03:18 PM
Joined: Jun 2003
Posts: 2,349
Lighthouser Offline
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Well, guys, I'm backing out of this particular debate because I believe we've already had a Win-Win way back there, and "lose-lose" was never in question. I'll let you go on to enjoy discussing values, etc. as depicted on e-bay and "The Marketplace" forum.

We have all agreed that there is a group of HL collectors who enjoy the hunt...buying and selling/analyzing the market.

We have also agreed that there's another group who gain their enjoyment from bringing yet another Harbour Light's into their home with never an intent to sell.

I fall into the second catogory. I proudly admit my enjoyment of collecting Harbour Lights because they are the best replicas on the market...and because every time I look at them I see another magnificant detail...and because they make me feel good and bring back wonderful memories.

And did I mention...because of all the wonderful people I've met because of Harbour Lights...including my best friend?

Sure...I get pleasure from knowing how several have escalated way up there in value. I make sure my son is aware of this...because, someday, he and my grandson will inherit...my collection in its entirety.

And do I have some GLOWS in my collection?...Of course I do! Sometimes, I buy a Glow to enjoy until I can find the LE.

Sometimes I buy a Glow because of the neat detail, or because it shows something that hasn't been produced in an LE as yet ( for instance...the GLOW that depicts Cape Hatteras in it's new, and safe environment)

Do the GLOW's remain a part of my collection, once I've found the LE? Of course they do!

My gosh!...have you seen how neat the new GLOWS are?

Now...the balloons..somebody else can collect those! :rolleyes:

Judy smile


Judy
Re: Buy 'Em Cuz You Like 'Em #78476 08/03/03 03:55 PM
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JTimothyA Offline OP
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Thanks for joining in, Judy. Hope you'll continue to enjoy the FSB forum. Lively discussion among fellow collectors helps to keep the forum community going - here, thats what we're about. :-)

T


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