In the thread on Bass Island, Todd posed a question I think makes a great topic.

Quote:

There is the key question: What lights will sell? Which lights won't? Why? (Ok, so key questions....)

A: Ones with an edition size of 4,000 seem to do pretty well.

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/im

The 6,500's havent done to shabby either....

-Todd

But a few of the 5500's still linger out there after several years (about 5 for the last of them) even though they are retired. So, it appears that it's not just a question of numbers.
Jim
Johnson

I believe it is more of a matter of which lighthouse it is. For example Portland Head, Cape Hatteras and a few others would sell forever. Some other regional pieces would sell quite well also especially if they are located in a good tourist area. I don't believe editon size has a whole lot to do with how a piece will sell: the exception being a very low production number such as 4000. Then the die hard collectors get paranoid. Assuming that most serious collectors are club members,it would be interesting to know what percentage of Harbour Lights are purchased by non-club members. For sure the more popular the Light, the better it will sell. One other thing that could have an effect is the price, as we have seen with Naversink and Anchor Bay.

"TheLightkeeper"

I think an edition size of not less than 6500 nor more than 7500 would be appropriate. That range keeps the edition size reasonable for all true wackos to get the piece and not too many to have them linger on the shelves for years.

Yes, there are a few 5500s still around. Probably because the quality of the new ones is so good. Perhaps some new collectors figure they couldn't afford to "get them all" anyways so they save their HL dollars for the newer HLs.

Bob

Qulity play's a lot into it. Of the 5500s that are still out there, they don't come close to that of the new 4000 and 6500. I have bought Hillsboro, La Coruna and Panama. I bought them over some other current ones because of the low issue. However, if they had been the detail of the old 5500s, I would have passed them up, and bought a quality GLOW. So I think the perfect recipe for fast sales is high quality and low numbers!

BobM,

I agree with you completely. I know I cannot have the complete collection, and I really don't want to, so I pick and choose. There is only one retired piece that I want which I do not have and that will be taken care of early next year. (Got to follow the schedule and budget). Then I will be able to concentrate on the newer pieces. Although I did get few of the new pieces due to their low edition size.

I think a 7500 edition size is fair. I think Hillsboro sold out as fast as it did because many people bought multiple pieces for future speculation. La Coruna has an edition size of 6500 but it is still in stores.

Hudson Athens had a big demand when it was released. Does anyone have any idea of its status as far as how many sold in it's 6 months or so? I would imagine that at least half of the issue should be sold as it seemed very popular.

Joanne

I'll get specific and make some predictions.

Lighthouses that probably *won't* retire on their own:

Pigeon Point
Gray's Harbor
Cape Agulhas
Navesink (although it should have. It is magnificent.)
Lorain
Faulkner's Island
Dunkirk
South Bass Island
Esopus Meadows
Macquarie
Longships
Cove Island
Fisgard
. . .and maybe Horton Point

Those with the best chance of retiring in a reasonable period of time on their own (say, in a year to 18 months from now):

Hudson-Athens
Nobska
Presque Isle
Old Saybrook
Bass Harbor
Grand Haven
St. Marks'
Big Sable
White River
Tarrytown
Point Betsie

And finally, pieces that will retire next year (probably in the first 6 months):

Gay Head
Sturgeon Bay
St. Mark's
Sapelo Island
La Coruna
Chicago Harbor
Cape Elizabeth
American Shoal

The rest are too hard to call.

There it is. In writing. Black and white. The ink is dry. You can beat me with sticks if I'm wrong.

[This message has been edited by Bill Harnsberger (edited 11-23-99).]

"probably won't" now that's a firm... almost, maybe, could be.

Are you furnishing the sticks or do we have to bring our own stick?

Saint WackoPaul '
Keep the Flame

It is a shame Bob Younger couldn't be here to help us with stick selection, Bob knew wood ! Would you use an oak branch ? and if so do you go with the red oak or the white oak. Or do you go with a softer pine, which has better grip with all the natural pine tar (wouldn't want to lose your grip and throw the stick injuring an innocent bystander) selection of a quality stick is key ! choosing a poor stick is just as bad as showing up at a public stoning with a handful of pea gravel.
BTW, Bill your an old fart !

Mark


America's Lighthouse

Secret Society members, Message to follow, use your 3-d glasses to read message

Message:The lazy brown fox jumps the fence at midnight
Repeat: The lazy brown fox jumps the fence at midnight

[This message has been edited by Mark Wagner (edited 11-23-99).]

>4,000 seem to do pretty well<

>6,500's havent done to shabby<

>But a few of the 5500's still linger<

Clearly it has something to do with the edition size. The models with an edition size beginning with an odd digit have trouble selling.

"Small edition size" may be somewhat relative to the date of release. 5,500 was not small in 1991. There were issues with early awareness of the line and a weaker economy in some of the early years that could alter one's definition of "small edition size" through the years. Both the awareness and the economic issues had been largely solved by mid-decade, and 5500 now looks pretty small. Since the likes of Cape Blanco and Umpqua River are still available at or below retail, I'm forced to believe that there is more to it than edition size, but let's start there.

I think the success of the piece has something to do with some twisted corollary to supply-side economics. Small edition sizes do seem to create their own demand, don't they? Or do *all* new issues reach 4,000 units sold to dealers before shipping commences nowadays? I don't think anyone outside of Y&A is privy to that information, but if I had to guess, I'd say that the small edition size bolsters early sales. These early sales might be dominated by dealers and speculators, and it might take quite a long time to get the pieces into the relatively strong hands of individual collectors (John's Dispersion Theory). However, I think the individual is also driven to buy early due to the small edition size, if only to make sure he gets one before they are all gone, and even if he or she is not a "capital-C" Collector. Of course, small edition size = 'must have' for all the Big-Cs out there. High marks to the Panama set, La Coruña, 'Zilla, Sapelo and Cape D. Does the world really need 10,000 Point Betsies? 10,000 Goat Islands? 9,500 Ida Lewis'?

It is my guess that models in the likeness of the finer architectural examples among real lighthouses would have an edge, right off the bat, over the purely utilitarian examples (Ida Lewis). "Finer architectural examples" is probably way too subjective to be generally useful as a predictor of a model's success, however.

Generally, I think that tall towers probably do better than house-like models simply because they "look like lighthouses" to the masses.

I think that it was John who first proposed that those in highly populated (or highly visited) areas where lighthouses figure prominently in the landscape (New England, Outer Banks, Florida, Hilton Head) similarly have a head start. A lighthouse's popular 'recognizability' probably doesn't hurt either (Hatteras, Portland Head).

Size does matter. I like my tall towers tall -- 8, 9". I prefer the house-like ones about the size of SEBI LE. Even a little larger would be OK. Some people I know have a strong preference for pieces on the smaller side. It is not clear to me if larger, smaller or close-to-the-average models are more in demand than the others, but I believe it *does* matter. Nearly everyone seems to have an opinion on size.

Size preference might be also related to when a piece is issued. Early Wacko Man (E.W. "Person", to be p.c.: Homo sapiens wackus and his better half, Lucy) might not have cared how big the footprint of the piece was. As the number of pieces in collections grew, Wackos the world over wondered, "Where the heck am I gonna put *this* one?" That alone could make pieces like Navesink, Pt. Judith, and now South Bass DOA. Pemaquid, Kilauea and especially Hillsboro seem to have survived this factor OK though. Probably not a big deal with most folks, and apparently can be mitigated by other factors.

Firsts are important. Wackos as a species love novelty. Sanibel, Thomas Point come immediately to mind. I might even include Hudson-Athens in this group, although it wasn't SOBR, or even SO at this point.

Detail, detail, detail. If an observer cannot completely take in a piece in less than a couple of minutes (SEBI, East Quoddy, Point Judith, Hudson-Athens, Rose Island), then that piece stands a better chance of going home with it's observer than does a simpler model. Compare those that can be known almost completely without even picking them up (Ida Lewis, Grosse Point LE).

Whimsy??? Not for me. I thoroughly enjoy the seahorse hunt that ensues with each new purchase (BTW - Where the heck has Harold 'Hip' O'Campus been lately?). Snowmen, paint cans and picnic baskets are OK, but pushing it. I think the whimsy crowd is more apt to go for Willie and Svea on CSCs. I don't think this is a big factor for HLs, but can become a negative attractor if overdone.

Stonework & brickwork. Nothing shows the painter's and modeler's skills better, imo. Anybody can paint one all white. A restored, white-painted Cape Florida might have been with us much longer than the weathered brick version that I love.

Elevation. High cliffs. East Quoddy, Faulkners Island, Cape D, Gay Head. Mmmmm.

Landscaping in moderation. The BoB factor. Trees are great as long as they are not overdone. The White River tree is nice, but I'd prefer more house and less tree than that for the given footprint.

Red. Nothing screams "buy me" like bright red.

Equation for success:

Low edition size + pleasing architecture + tall tower + populated area + resort + recognizable + right size + firsts + detail - whimsy + stonework + high cliffs + moderate landscaping + red = winner.

Having said all that, my opinions expressed above hint at a Collector's (capital-C) bias. There are a few different ways we can measure success, and the significant factors will likely vary for each. The first metric that comes to mind is the topic of this thread: how quickly a piece sells out. This is necessarily related to edition size (almost the Pygmalion effect here at some point), but is probably affected by other factors as well.

A second is success in the secondary market, as measured by a sustained secondary price rise. This is likely to be related to edition size more than anything else, but could well be influenced strongly by other factors as well.

A third is profitability for Y&A. All else being equal, this is inversely related to edition size.

Yet a fourth measure of success might be a Bill H. certification of "Wow!"™. This is claimed to be not related to edition size. As a measure of success, this would bring up some interesting problems. However, this being a not-so-interesting posting that is already sufficiently long, I'll sidestep those issues here altogether.

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-Art

A stalwart effort, Art. Why not test it against known best sellers

Here are the non-Society, non-Christmas, non-Reunion, non-Event, non-forced-retirement pieces that sold out to dealers in a year or less along w/ their edition sizes. Ordered by the shortest time on market:

Drum Point 9500
Hillsborozilla 6500
Sanibel Island 9500
Middle Bay 9500
Cape Hatteras r1 266
Cape Henry (Old & New) 9500
Thomas Point 9500
Alcatraz 9500
Morris Island - Then 9500
Morris Island - Now 9500
Cape Canaveral 9500
Cape Florida 10k
Montauk 5500
Gatun Locks/Miraflores (unknown ret. dt.) 4000

Drum Point & Middle Bay were part of the Thomas Point Affair and might be considered aberant. CH1 was a mold change (CH2 taking well over 2-1/2 yrs to retire).

Granted selling out to dealers and not-available-at-retail are different.

And here's the ones that sold out to dealers within 2 years - same selection filter:

Barnegat 5500
Cape May 9500
Le Jument 9500
Sharps Island 9500
Cape Neddick 5500
Holland (Big Red) 5500
Cape Lookout 9500
Currituck 9500
Assateague 5500
Diamond Head 5500
Spectacle Reef (go figure) 9500
Saint Joseph North Pier 9500
30 Mile Point 9500
New Canal 5500
Ponce de Leon 5500
Pemaquid 9500
Fire Island 9500
Hilton Head 5500
St. Augustine 5500
Jupiter 9500
Tawas Point 5500
Bald Head 9500

The Red Seal Barks At Dawn,
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/im


[This message has been edited by JTimothyA (edited 11-24-99).]

"It just doesn't get any better than this."

D’Artagnan my sword........ it's all for one and one for all!

SaintWackoPaul '
Keep the Flame

Taking Art's formula into account, if we took Jupiter, put it on Kilauea's cliff, surrounded it with an inticately brick Club Med, told people it was in the heart of Los Angeles, and made 6,500 of them, it should sell out in a week!

Can we start again? I think I missed something.

Rick

Rick, if you just read every other line, it will make just as much sense, lol!

True "C"ollectors realize "real" lighthouses aren't just tall towers.

What sells is what I buy. Who else buys what, I don't much care. But please continue, we enjoy reading "The dueling Wackos"!

"c"ollector

No Jeff, it's got to be a real lighthouse. Now if only they dressed Lady Liberty in a clingy, spaghetti-strapped red mini dress instead of that patina toga and limited the edition number...

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-Art

Although SeaGirt I love Sea Girt, along with Hudson Athens, I do favor the tall towers. I am disappointed in the size of Fisgard and think that another inch or two in each direction could have made this a wow. Give me a tower like Fire Island's any day of the week.

Joanne


[This message has been edited by Joanne (edited 11-29-99).]

You prefer the tall towers because you live in Florida, Joanne. They'd look pretty dumb on the Hudson River or up on the St. Lawrence or Lake Ontario. Home is where the heart is, sorta.

Although many are similar, each lighthouse is unique and has it's own story to tell/sell?

Smaller edition numbers certainly are nice but don't necessarily influence which lights I buy.

[This message has been edited by mombo (edited 11-27-99).]

>>each lighthouse is unique <<

Good point, mombo. With so much of the government's contracting going to regional builders, who knew local requirements, conditions and materials, we have a broad diversity of styles. And lighthouse construction took place over several hundred years, reflecting the ebb and flow of shipping and maritime activities at different places.

This diversity of styles is well reflected throughout the Great Lakes region. Not as tall as some of the Atlantic coast towers, we have a few big towers, though not many in your area. Examples include Seul Choix, the Sables, the New Presque Isle light - all in Michigan. From Split Rock to Sunken Rock - there's something for everyone!

Can you imagine if there was a 'Standard Governement Issue Lighthouse', and they all looked pretty much the same. The fact that lights come in all shapes and sizes is one of the things that attracts me to lighthouses.
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/im
[This message has been edited by JTimothyA (edited 11-28-99).]

Another important consideration for the height of the tower was curvature of the earth and local geography. How far from the light did it need to be seen by a navigator standing on the bridge of a ship at sea?

Down in the South on our low, sandy coastlines the tower of a light had to be tall (as soon as construction techniques allowed).

In places like Point Loma, California or Cape Meares, Oregon the tower could be not very tall at all because the local geography allowed it to be built on a tall bluff. In other words, the light got its height from the land it was built on.

Likewise, harbor lights could be fairly short because they didn't need to be seen from relatively great distances.

I've been to Liberty Island and peeked, Art. Lady Liberty doesn't have the legs for a mini dress

I like all the different shapes of lightshouses. I especially like screwpile lighthouses. But as far as what I seem to buy faster in HL's are the towers. Like I said, I love Sea Girt and Middle Bay is one of my top 3 favorites, but my eye is always drawn to the tall pieces.

Joanne

Big problem here: Short, tall, skinny, fat...I love them all. One of my very favorites is Prices Creek (a very endangered light) in NC.

I'm so thankful for the scroll button while reading epistles like some of these...but, if I like it and have the money, I'll add it to my collection.

Derith

Region has become a major factor as well...I imagine that the short, fat, hard-to-get-to lights on the rainy Northwest coast don't appeal much to East Coasters & Outer Bankers used to flashy bright stripes and tall graceful towers.

Here in northern California, I see a lot of Bolivars, Pt. Isabels, and homely Biloxis gathering dust on the shelves...

Hey Rock,

I am the exception to the rule then....I have gone by car and plane in search of those Northwest lights. Everyone I found was unique in its own way. That's why I like them and will return each year until my eyes see them all. Cape Hatteras is majestic but no more so than Heceta Head or North Head when you compare the history and the surroundings.
Derith