Does the value go up or down? Does it stabilize? Does the demand diminish for a secondary market LE?

Is anybody keeping track?

Something is clearly driving the prices of LE's down in recent months. A call to two of my favorite secondary market dealers indicates the market price is real soft right now. I do believe the GLOW pieces are having an impact, and now the signature series. Where LE 'Coquille River' was extra special, now it competes with a much better looking (and accurate!) younger brother (sister?).

A person may buy a Glow if he or she likes it better than an LE of the same light. Besides it is far more inexpensive to purchase. If you're a "diehard" collector you'll spring for the higher price LE. Then you have people like me, I buy one of everything HL offers for sale. I'm trying to catch up to Fred.

Bob

Someone upstream was looking for philosophical debate. After years of study I can definitively tell you there are no listings in the Yellow Pages for Philosophers.

Deb W. observes:
>>I do believe the GLOW pieces are having an impact, and now the signature series. <<

There has been considerable discussion on this topic over the last few years - much of it can be found in The Fog Signal Building Archives.

By producing artistic open editions of the same lighthouses they model as collectibles, Harbour Lights is dancing along the shoreline of the future on moss covered rocks. They are betting they can continue to generate additional income from GLOW sales without so irritating to the point of disenchantment that hard core group of collector's who assure them regular sales of Limited Editions. Those of us who dance with HL sometimes get lost in the whirl of the 'Tall Tower Two-Step' and we're often adverse to considering the tune that sets the tempo.

Imo, GLOWs and the 10k LE edition size have hurt sales of Limited Editions. Both of these result from efforts on HL's part to 'cash-in'. With all its warmth and fuzziness, HL is there to make money. But please don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting this is in any way a bad thing - we all want to feed our kids and drive to work. (Despite the desire of certain parties to penalize personal success by disproportionate taxation, capitalism is still The American Way.)

The question is simply: is cashing-in worth its price? Different points of view will have different answers.

Recent reductions in edition size (Gatun Locks, Hillsboro, etc.) are efforts to appease the hard core collector. This will shore up the sense of rarity attached to the line and give hard core collector's something to get excited about. At the same time GLOWs are getting more and more elaborate. HL obviously wants to have their cake and eat it too. :-) don't we all.

It would be interesting to see if HL has done a business model projection that shows they can subsist solely on Open Editions and 'add-ons' such as ornaments, figurines, ship models. By making them larger and more elaborate, HL has slowly but successfully managed to increase the price of GLOWs to about where LEs were a few years back. There is nothing that indicates LEs are that much more expensive to make, although they are riskier. With models such as Navesink and Sannibel HL has tested the waters to see how much more its collector's are willing to spend on LEs - I'd say most folks aren't gonna pay much more than the price of Sannibel for a very well done retail release. There are obviously price points beyond which the typical hard core collector will not (or cannot) go on a regular basis. Perhaps HL believes they've found the sweet spot with current GLOW pricing.

I have collected coins and stamps in the past, but Harbour Lights models are the only "manufactured rarity" I've consistently acquired. So I'm not that familiar with the Wide World of Designer Collectibles. I will comment that I can't think of any manufactured rarity that has endured as a collectible over a long period of time. There are some things like Barbie dolls that have been around for quite a while, but these did not start out designed intentionally to be collected. If there are long term (25+ years) successful 'intentional collectibles', there's probably not many of them. Therefore, if the future continues to resemble the past, we should conclude that the lighthouse model *collectibles* market has a limited lifespan. I'm not talking here about things like GLOWs, but those models capable of generating sufficient interest to sustain a demand greater than supply and thus drive a thriving secondary market.

One presumes HL wants to survive even if the core of the LE collecting community shrinks to a point where it cannot sustain the company on its own. So how can they do this? One answer is artistic appealing GLOWs. The downside, of course, is that this 'cure' is itself slightly toxic - the Open Edition is hastening what *history* suggests will be the inevitable demise of the LE collectible marketplace. The trick for HL is keep this going for as long as they can - the mossy rocks are slippery, but HL hasn't lost their balance yet. An equally interesting trick is how should collectors react - at least those who hold dear their collections for value as well as beauty.

Will the LE market revive? Perhaps. On the one hand given the present day economic prosperity you'd think the LE collectibles market would be on the upswing. On the other hand "things" - as opposed to intangibles such as "money" - tend to grow in value during harder economic times. Are we in the midst of a long term decline in the value of LEs and can't see the forest for the trees? I don't know the answer here.

There are reasonable claims to be made that GLOWs encourage lighthouse model collecting. However, it is unclear if the presence of GLOWs has increased the number of persistent LE collectors. If GLOWs continue to diminish the long term value of LEs then I think the answer is more likely 'no - GLOWs do not contribute to the number of folks who collect LEs'. The number of collectors relative to the available models is a major determinant of supply and demand - when demand slips - as suggested by declining price - we have to ask ourselves what can cause it to increase?

At this juncture I don't know what are those factors that are likely to happen to cause an increase in the number of LE collectors and thus re-invigorate the LE market. One might conclude that such factors will not come into play and the market is in a permanent decline. I'm sufficiently uncertain to draw this conclusion myself at this point, but I'm skeptical enough of their occurence (whatever they are) not to stick my head in the sand and pretend this is only a temporary market downswing. To quote Babe the pig: "Tra la la, tra la la".

Don't get me wrong - GLOWs are not The Great Satan. There are other *possible* explanations why LE prices are down:
- Belief that it is very difficult to obtain a complete collection.
- LE prices were artificially high to begin with and the market is righting itself.
- Only within the last 3 years has pricing information been widespread; again market leveling.
- Auction formats force a different market dynamic than individual secondary dealers.
- People promote the idea that GLOWs may experience a rise in value similar to LE's, thus leading to a failure to discriminate in one's purchases.
- etc. etc.
- There is not enough difference in perceived value between newer fancier GLOWs and LEs.
- Lighthouse collecting is a fad and inevitably follows the path of all fads.

Don't underestimate HL's design and marketing skills. They're willing to try different stuff and they do respond to customer input. The fact that the average age in the US is rising suggests that HL may be able to string out their success for many more years. This is based on the notion that older folks with their heightened appreciation for history will keep alive a collective interest in lighthouses.

We'll just have to wait and see. Hopefully we'll get a more interesting response than 'collect what you like', but let's continue breathing in the meantime. :-)

Rgds,
__
/im
[This message has been edited by JTimothyA (edited 07-29-99).]

Tim,

I'm not sure, either.

------------------
-Art

Bob,

I have seen no evidence that the LEs care at all. Mine just sit there whenever a new GLOW is announced. Maybe they're pouting, but it's hard to tell.

------------------
-Art

Tim,

Well thought out and written. Add one thing that adds to this equation. Love of Lighthouses. That is one force that cannot be calculated and may affect the final outcome.

Moby

Well said, sir.

Fortunately, I think the rise in lighthouse restoration and general interest is here to stay. As Tim Harrison of Lighthouse Digest likes to say (to the point where it's now a cliche): "Lighthouses are to America what castles are to Europe." I can't think of a link to our incredible past that is more grand or appropriate, especially considering that so many of them are still functioning. In that respect, and given that HL makes the best lighthouse models anywhere, I think that may bode well for long-term stability. We'll never see skyrocketing secondary prices again...but the bottom won't drop out, GLOWs or no GLOWs.

And on that subject, Harbour Lights' foray into GLOWs was completely understandable, completely rational, completely brilliant on paper...

...and horribly executed.

Smaller versions of retired limited editions? Sure! But make 'em small enough that a 2 year-old could differentiate between the collectible and the giftware. Don't bother numbering them...what does that serve except to confuse new buyers (and probably many store clerks who haven't been properly trained). And price 'em at around $40...about half of the LE price.

Bill & Company should have learned from the early retirements of Coquille and Burrows Island...and the clod who dropped the master mold of Assateague ("clod" in the most affectionate sense, of course). When something is perceived as scarce it becomes a "real find." Thus it makes sense to keep that perception in the mind of the collector. While I didn't originally get into Harbour Lights because I thought they were scarce (it was Pemaquid's detail that sold me), I now have a substantial collection in part because "I have something that only 5,499 other people on this WHOLE PLANET have." Except now, the entire rest of the planet now has the option of buying a new, improved sculpture of the same light from the same company...and hand-numbered, no less! Suddenly my Gross Point or St. Simon's isn't quite as unique as it once was. It has 'giftware' in its family tree.

A positive perception of a company by consumers is its most prized asset. The heady years of 1994 to mid-1997 hammer home my point. People snatched up Harbour Lights because of their scarcity (real or perceived). They no longer have that reputation. Now HL is just another overstocked collectible/giftware product gathering more dust than usual on store shelves. That's not an unfair assesment...I visit many dealers regularly and that's what I see with my own eyes.

I still love the company. I love their product, their commitment to lighthouse restoration and customers, and their family-style hierarchy. I'm rabid about what's coming out next and race down to my dealer to see the latest models. But I don't buy as often anymore, in part because I know they'll be around a long, long time.

Go back to scarcity, HL. Go back to scarcity. That's your ace in the hole. Give people what they think they might not be able to get for much longer.

All hail Coquille River!

When you make collectible items that are too rare, they become inaccessable to 85 percent of the consumer population. I did not purchase Hillsboro because of it's high price and the fact that I could not see it in person. If I was able to see it in a store and love it, I could justify the money, but on speculation, no. If pieces were made so scarce that I could only afford two or three a year, I would drop the HL line. Right now, I'm able to purchase about two per month and it's fun because I am able to locate retired pieces that are affordable.

For those of you who choose to buy Harbour Lights lighthouses because they can increase in value, then buy bonds or certificates. If you buy them like I do, because I love the look of them, then you appreciate the pieces you can afford to own. I agree that there could be two or three releases that are limited to 6500, but there should also be some that are 9000.

I like the size of GLOWs. I have a few of the older ones and I am disappointed in the smallness of them. If I wanted a small "giftware" item, I'd purchase a replica of a lighthouse from a novelty store for $6.00 to $12.00.

Is it possible that the price of older pieces are coming down because compared to the new LE's they are just not as artistic? I had the opportunity yesterday to buy Umpqua, St. George or St Joseph for retail and decided not to spend my money on those when I could buy Cove Island or Hudsons Athens. I think the new pieces have had more of a negative influence on secondary market prices of LE's than GLOW's have.

Joanne

Maybe the HL's just aren't in the right place to be sold. There are two dealers near me within 35 miles or so of each other. One sells as soon as they come in, the other's sit and gather dust. R@R helps but has a limited audience. What do reps do? Can't they suggest a dealer drop the HL line and then initiate it in another location?



I agree, Joanne. My HL budget is limited, as yours is. And those new HL's beat the pants off the older ones. That's where my $ is going.

Thanks Mombo, I was afraid I was a little to strong in stating my opinion. I see nothing wrong with wanting to make money when selling a retired piece. I would want to get more than I paid if I were selling a piece. It just shouldn't be the goal or purpose of Harbour Lights to make only those pieces that will create a high secondary value. Let's enjoy the beauty of these lighthouses and the knowledge that each piece brings awareness to one of "America's Castles".

Joanne

Very interesting remarks from everyone. It seems to boil down to the fact that no one knows for sure what's happening or why the market is "soft" on HLs right now. The first 5500s are not the most beautiful to look at it in comparison to what's being done now, BUT they certainly were the best when they came out. I don't regret any money spent on them. HL has done a magnificent job in continuing to create lighthouses better than anyone else.

I love the GLOWs due to their detail, but have to agree that hand-numbering them and the revisions that have come out have been confusing - not just for collectors (thinking they were LEs) but also for dealers and their employees. Early on we thought we were buying a CH Revised - a CH Open arrived in its place. That was our first warning - we asked more questions after that.

I also think that the 10,000 edition was set up too quickly. I remember that well as several people pushed for the higher editions due to Thomas Point retiring so quickly, etc. I really would like to see that lowered again.

Tim, you'll continue to hear about "collecting what you like" because that's part of why we're all here. If we didn't love lighthouses, we wouldn't have given HLs a second glance. It's been said before that we all love lighthouses, and nobody makes them as well as HL does. We read everything we could get our hands on and talked to dealers all over gathering what information we could on HLs when we began "collecting." Perhaps that's what you want to hear instead "be an informed collector." This forum is now one of the best (if not the best) way to keep informed about HLs. I hope the "fad" continues if that's what it is - could be, you never know.

Kathy

[This message has been edited by Al and Kathy (edited 08-02-99).]

[This message has been edited by Al and Kathy (edited 08-02-99).]

>>A couple of other indicators that GLOWs are not having a huge impact on secondary prices. ...<<

Took a little while to think this one through. While the observations about sales of specific pieces are quite interesting, I don't believe the softness in prices can be explained away by showing pricing on individual pieces which happen to have or not have GLOWs. Obviously some models hold their value better than others - this has always been the case. In general, the entire market is soft - only a handful of pieces are showing any significant upward trend. (Portland Head may be selling well, but not at the $700-$800 price tag it had for at least 18 months.)

No doubt there are a number of factors involved and we seem to agree on several of these. Nonetheless I continue to believe the advent of fancier GLOWs correlates with an LE secondary pricing decline.

Nice to hear Bill H. shares my belief in the likelihood for long term interest in lighthouses, but at this juncture I'm not willing to bet against history and can't endorse the prediction that this equates to a long term market for collectible (that is, Limited Edition) lighthouse models. No doubt lighthouse giftware (including GLOWs) will still be plentiful - and that may very well sustain HL for a long long time. But I start to repeat my earlier post...

With regard to >>you'll continue to hear about "collecting what you like" because that's part of why we're all here. << I guess all I can say is "thats nice". For me personally, I only get so much mileage out of cuddling my HL models and I get bored with 'akuna mattata' as the answer to every question. But that may come from reading too much Sartre at too early an age. :-)

As a side question, are there any women on the forum who - independently of their husband's interest or otherwise if not married - have the goal to collect all the LEs?

Tickled smurfy,
__
/im

Tim: Don't have either goal, to collect them all or to collect another husband.

Ok Tim, there you go again trying to get me to look up words and there meanings. I figured out mattata on my own. She was a spy. I saw the Blue Angel starring Marlene Dietrich.

SaintWackoPaul '
Keep the Flame

Tim, it was my collection to begin with, and I wanted to get all of them. HLs were all I received as gifts. Granted my other half is interested in them now as a collection, but not when I began. He's always liked lighthouses - just didn't plan on getting hooked on HLs like his wife.

Have another question for everyone. We've seen many debates regarding GLOWs lowering the secondary market prices or values on LEs. It looks to me that the GLOWs introduction has raised the prices of LEs period or have the increasing prices been due to the greater details on each HLs and increased cost to produce them.

Kathy

[This message has been edited by Al and Kathy (edited 08-06-99).]

>>'akuna mattata'<<

Don't look in the dictionary, look in a record store for the soundtrack to 'The Lion King'. :-)

It's the animal version of the Coruna Beer commercials now on TV....

Change your whole lattitude.

'akuna mattata'

In Harbour Lights parlance, this translates roughly into 'buy what you like'.

-Noah W.

Hi Tim,

I collect HL's because I like them, no male influence started me on them. I'm not the beanie babies and Precious Moments type. But, the question was, as a woman do I want the whole HL LE collection? No, I don't. I particularly like screwpile but not skeleton tower lighthouses. Except for Sanibel, there is no skeleton tower piece that I would like to own.

Joanne

I don't know what effect the GLOWs are having on the LEs but is has been interesting to read all the opinions. I will say that I have been in somewhat of a quendry over this whole issue. I have replaced a couple GLOWs (received as gifts)with LEs, but can't afford to do that with some other ones I have such as Boston Harbor. On the other hand, some of the LEs that I don't have are really out of my affordable range (the Southern Bells) and if I ever want them in my collection I will probably have to settle for a GLOW. My main reason for collecting HL is like most of you I like their craftsmanship and I have a keen interest in lighthouses. However, it is nice to know that my hard earned money is going into something that has some value aside from the fact that I like the looks.

Another problem I am experiencing is the overall increase in the cost of HL and the number of new LEs each year. My wife and I usually plan our vacations around visiting lighthouses and the ones we've been to are in turn the HL editions that have a greater appeal to us. We do however have a desire to collect them all! The increased cost and number released each year is making this increasingly difficult. Since our main reason to collect isn't to resell but to enjoy, should we go for the cheaper but just as nice looking GLOWs? Look for example at Bolivar. The GLOW is actually more detailed than the LE. What does this do to the desirability of the LE and thus it's future value? The signature series - just another marketing ploy? Will a collector go for the signed figurine or the LE of the same light? I still am after HL lighthouses and just tonight emailed about some I saw advertised in the Marketplace but I must question where HL is heading. Even the responses to questions I've emailed HL are somewhat vague in reference to edition sizes. I would like to see a limited edition be a limited edition but not so scarce that it's beyond most of us getting. Am I asking for to much?