Part 1: In which our hero finds a hobby and searches for the Golden Lens...

My first HL model was Old Mackinac Point given to me on my birthday by my dad in August of '95. It wasn't long til I was hooked (you know how *that* goes). Took me a while to become aware of the secondary market and the fact that some of these little models were pretty darn expensive. HL didn't have any nice catalogs that showed previous years models, so I didn't know what most of their pieces looked like - only those I saw in stores. I didn't know anyone who collected lighthouse models - heck I didn't know anyone who collected 'collectibles'. I was the newest of newbies and I was almost as fascinated with these little lighthouses as I was the big ones.

While attending my first BY signing event in Door County (sheer coincidence - we just happened to be there) I got a snoot full from the shop owner who was also a secondary dealer. Whoa! Some of those prices *were* pretty darn high. But here was someone who had access to models I'd never seen before. In the early stages of Wacko-itis (not diagnosed yet) I was working out in my mind that it made more sense to buy certain models than others. (Like DUH!)

But which ones should I acquire first? The retirement rate was much much quicker a few years ago - and a certain urgency pressed upon my inner beacon. There was *no* formal information on pricing of retired pieces and no information on their availability. HL was still putting together their first list of dealers, so I didn't even have that resource. All I had was the single piece of paper HL had sent me that showed what was available and what had retired, and a price list of secondary market pieces from the Door County shop owner.

Along with trying to be rational about which pieces to acquire when, I was fascinated with the idea of figuring out a way to predict which models were likely to become more valuable over time. Using a spreadsheet, I started playing around with formulas based on the information I had available to me. This didn't amount to much: the date a piece was available, when it retired, and what scraps of pricing info I could dig up. Not alot to go on. What I wanted to do was find a formula that did a good job of correlating a model's data with its pricing history - then test it with current and future pieces to see if the correlation held up.

I never quite got there. Partly because my equations had no way to factor things like aesthetics, the Tourist Factor, speculators, accessibilty, etc. All those intangibles that cause some models to be popular than others. But I got kinda close, cuz, although I didn't realize it, I did indirectly factor the symptoms of these intangibles.

In fact, I had enough confidence in the method of my madness that I actually used this information as my personal buying plan. Followed it for at least two years. Not to the letter, but as a general guideline to help me pick which pieces to buy and in what order.

In the message following this one, I'm posting a snippet from one of my more recent spread sheets. (I still include my early formulas along with capturing a bunch of other data about each model.) The top 47 models are included. I didn't pick these, they are the models that have what I call 'a good negative'. Take the Age of piece At its Retirment and subtract from it the Number of Days Since it Retired. And here's what we get.

So judge for yourself about these 47 models. The list is not absolutely current, but pretty close. I'm not including current pricing info, but you can check values from a little over a year-and-a-half ago. (Some pieces don't have prices from 5/97 cause they weren't on the secondary at that point).

If you're interested in any of the formulas used, drop me a note. Currently I'm using Excel which makes it pretty simple.

Rgds,
__
/im

Top listings from among (almost) all current models using (almost) current data. Sorted on Age at Retirement minus Days Since Retirement

HL#	Lighthouse Name	Avail Dt	Retire Dt	Age (in days) at Ret.	Days Since Ret.	Age at Ret - Days Since Ret	2ndry Mrkt Price 5/97 "Collecting Figures" mag
102	Cape Hatteras r1	01/01/91	6/1/91	151	2770	(2619)	$4,600.00
111	Coquille River	07/01/91	2/16/93	596	2144	(1548)	$2,450.00
139	Barnegat	01/01/94	1/6/95	370	1455	(1085)	$175.00
143	Montauk	07/01/94	5/10/95	313	1331	(1018)	$160.00
141	Cape Neddick	01/01/94	3/17/95	440	1385	(945)	$175.00
108	Burrows Island	07/01/91	1/1/94	915	1825	(910)	$250.00
102	Cape Hatteras r2	06/01/91	12/21/93	934	1836	(902)	$650.00
125	Portland Head	07/01/92	8/4/94	764	1610	(846)	$575.00
156	Point Arena	11/01/95	4/5/96	156	1000	(844)	$135.00
132	Ponce de Leon	01/01/93	11/15/94	683	1507	(824)	$225.00
142	Holland (Big Red)	01/01/94	5/30/95	514	1311	(797)	$150.00
181	Thomas Point	08/01/96	9/13/96	43	839	(796)	$150.00
136	Hilton Head	01/01/93	12/1/94	699	1491	(792)	$415.00
145	Assateague	01/01/94	6/12/95	527	1298	(771)	$135.00
194	Sanibel Island	06/01/97	3/1/97	(92)	670	(762)
140	Diamond Head	01/01/94	6/19/95	534	1291	(757)	$140.00
138	St. Augustine	01/01/93	12/22/94	720	1470	(750)	$450.00
177	Alcatraz	03/01/96	7/22/96	143	892	(749)	$150.00
163	Cape Canaveral	03/01/96	8/7/96	159	876	(717)	$110.00
180	Drum Point	02/01/97	1/27/97	(5)	703	(708)	$100.00
137	St. Simons	01/01/93	1/16/95	745	1445	(700)	$200.00
187	Middle Bay	01/01/97	1/27/97	26	703	(677)	$100.00
128	S.E. Block Island	07/01/92	11/15/94	867	1507	(640)	$230.00
196	Cape Henry (Old & New)	06/01/97	7/9/97	38	540	(502)
133	Tybee	01/01/93	5/23/95	872	1318	(446)	$135.00
134	Key West	01/01/93	5/23/95	872	1318	(446)	$180.00
104	Sandy Hook	01/01/91	5/25/94	1240	1681	(441)	$200.00
135	Ocracoke	01/01/93	5/30/95	879	1311	(432)	$135.00
189	Morris Island - Then	01/01/97	6/1/97	151	578	(427)
190	Morris Island - Now	01/01/97	6/1/97	151	578	(427)
126	Nauset Beach	07/01/92	3/30/95	1002	1372	(370)	$150.00
129	New London Ledge	07/01/92	3/30/95	1002	1372	(370)	$130.00
118	Old Mackinac Point	01/01/92	1/27/95	1122	1434	(312)	$150.00
148	New Canal	01/01/95	8/7/96	584	876	(292)	$85.00
168	Cape May	04/01/96	4/8/97	372	632	(260)
117	Boston Harbor	07/01/91	1/27/95	1306	1434	(128)	$130.00
158	Currituck	11/01/95	4/8/97	524	632	(108)	$130.00
144	Heceta Head	07/07/94	8/21/96	776	862	(86)
182	Spectacle Reef	12/01/95	6/1/97	548	578	(30)
183	Saint Joseph North Pier	12/01/95	6/1/97	548	578	(30)
184	30 Mile Point	12/01/95	6/1/97	548	578	(30)
121	Marblehead	01/01/92	6/19/95	1265	1291	(26)	$115.00
124	Split Rock	01/01/92	6/19/95	1265	1291	(26)	$120.00
175	Cape Lookout	02/01/96	7/7/97	522	542	(20)
101	Admiralty Head	01/01/91	12/22/94	1451	1470	(19)	$135.00
151	Jupiter	01/01/95	12/23/96	722	738	(16)	$125.00
152	Tawas Point	01/01/95	12/23/96	722	738	(16)	$100.00
185	Sharps Island	09/01/96	10/24/97	418	433	(15)

Calculations done on 12/31/98

Based on *today's* market - what are the sleepers? Oh, how 'bout Cape May, or Currituck? I think Holland and Burrow's Island are still gonna move up.

What to Buy? Where it gets interesting is to see the rankings for all the models that *aren't* on this list. Down the road, I'll post some of those numbers. A tidbit for now: there's a lot of pieces lined up behind Pensacola.

What do you think?

Rgds,
__
/im

Appropriate credits to 'Collecting Figures' magazine.


[This message has been edited by JTimothyA (edited 12-31-98).]

Tim,

Thanks for a good attempt to discern a method to the madness. The correlations hold up fairly well with just enough anomalies to prove that predictability of HL futures will never become a sure thing.

I think that Ocracoke has certainly awakened, but that Cape Henry and Morris Island may have a longer nap before showing some life on the secondary market. Although Jupiter has a relatively low negative, I think its desirability has been recognized.

As you note, there are a lot of variables to account for and some just don't respond to reason.

Maybe you can start the HL Handicappers' Club complete with pick sheets like at the track.

Thanks for the feedback, Rich. These are the only regular LE models with a negative result for the far right column. Here are the others with a negative that weren't included in my list of standard LEs.

Big Bay Point (976)
Point Fermin (641)
Colchester Reef (610)
White Shoal (487)
New Point Loma (457)
Rose Island REXA (328)
Stonington Harbor (65)
Legacy Lighthouse (61)

All of these are slightly skewed because, except for the Legacy Light, they have a fixed retirement date.

Remember the ones in the chart and above are the only pieces with a negative rating - all other retired models have a positive result. So if a model gets a negative rating at all, keep an eye on it.

As for low positives, the lowest is West Quoddy at 30, followed by Bolivar 57, Biloxi 89, and Pensacola 109. Finding any of these at retail warrants snapping them up. (West Quoddy is out, but the others can be had through Retired@Retail )

Another consideration that makes the algorithm interesting is the how the ratings come out on the 'less desirable' end of things. Consider the models with the 'worst' (least desirable) ratings:

Cape Blanco 1461
North Head 1382
St. George's 1263
Yaquina Head 1201
Grosse Point 1067

Pretty much what you'd expect. It was actually this end of the results that surprised me the most.

Rgds,
__
/im

after losing several of my AOL factoids, I wanna hang to these...