HL Factoid #11 part 1 - What to Buy?
#72735
12/31/98 04:57 AM
|
Joined: Dec 1969
Posts: 2,300
JTimothyA
OP
Saint
|
OP
Saint
Joined: Dec 1969
Posts: 2,300 |
Part 1: In which our hero finds a hobby and searches for the Golden Lens...
My first HL model was Old Mackinac Point given to me on my birthday by my dad in August of '95. It wasn't long til I was hooked (you know how *that* goes). Took me a while to become aware of the secondary market and the fact that some of these little models were pretty darn expensive. HL didn't have any nice catalogs that showed previous years models, so I didn't know what most of their pieces looked like - only those I saw in stores. I didn't know anyone who collected lighthouse models - heck I didn't know anyone who collected 'collectibles'. I was the newest of newbies and I was almost as fascinated with these little lighthouses as I was the big ones.
While attending my first BY signing event in Door County (sheer coincidence - we just happened to be there) I got a snoot full from the shop owner who was also a secondary dealer. Whoa! Some of those prices *were* pretty darn high. But here was someone who had access to models I'd never seen before. In the early stages of Wacko-itis (not diagnosed yet) I was working out in my mind that it made more sense to buy certain models than others. (Like DUH!)
But which ones should I acquire first? The retirement rate was much much quicker a few years ago - and a certain urgency pressed upon my inner beacon. There was *no* formal information on pricing of retired pieces and no information on their availability. HL was still putting together their first list of dealers, so I didn't even have that resource. All I had was the single piece of paper HL had sent me that showed what was available and what had retired, and a price list of secondary market pieces from the Door County shop owner.
Along with trying to be rational about which pieces to acquire when, I was fascinated with the idea of figuring out a way to predict which models were likely to become more valuable over time. Using a spreadsheet, I started playing around with formulas based on the information I had available to me. This didn't amount to much: the date a piece was available, when it retired, and what scraps of pricing info I could dig up. Not alot to go on. What I wanted to do was find a formula that did a good job of correlating a model's data with its pricing history - then test it with current and future pieces to see if the correlation held up.
I never quite got there. Partly because my equations had no way to factor things like aesthetics, the Tourist Factor, speculators, accessibilty, etc. All those intangibles that cause some models to be popular than others. But I got kinda close, cuz, although I didn't realize it, I did indirectly factor the symptoms of these intangibles.
In fact, I had enough confidence in the method of my madness that I actually used this information as my personal buying plan. Followed it for at least two years. Not to the letter, but as a general guideline to help me pick which pieces to buy and in what order.
In the message following this one, I'm posting a snippet from one of my more recent spread sheets. (I still include my early formulas along with capturing a bunch of other data about each model.) The top 47 models are included. I didn't pick these, they are the models that have what I call 'a good negative'. Take the Age of piece At its Retirment and subtract from it the Number of Days Since it Retired. And here's what we get.
So judge for yourself about these 47 models. The list is not absolutely current, but pretty close. I'm not including current pricing info, but you can check values from a little over a year-and-a-half ago. (Some pieces don't have prices from 5/97 cause they weren't on the secondary at that point).
If you're interested in any of the formulas used, drop me a note. Currently I'm using Excel which makes it pretty simple.
Rgds, __ /im
|
|
|
Re: HL Factoid #11 part 1 - What to Buy?
#72736
12/31/98 04:58 AM
|
Joined: Dec 1969
Posts: 2,300
JTimothyA
OP
Saint
|
OP
Saint
Joined: Dec 1969
Posts: 2,300 |
Top listings from among (almost) all current models using (almost) current data. Sorted on Age at Retirement minus Days Since Retirement HL# | Lighthouse Name | Avail Dt | Retire Dt | Age (in days) at Ret. | Days Since Ret. | Age at Ret - Days Since Ret | 2ndry Mrkt Price 5/97 "Collecting Figures" mag | 102 | Cape Hatteras r1 | 01/01/91 | 6/1/91 | 151 | 2770 | (2619) | $4,600.00 | 111 | Coquille River | 07/01/91 | 2/16/93 | 596 | 2144 | (1548) | $2,450.00 | 139 | Barnegat | 01/01/94 | 1/6/95 | 370 | 1455 | (1085) | $175.00 | 143 | Montauk | 07/01/94 | 5/10/95 | 313 | 1331 | (1018) | $160.00 | 141 | Cape Neddick | 01/01/94 | 3/17/95 | 440 | 1385 | (945) | $175.00 | 108 | Burrows Island | 07/01/91 | 1/1/94 | 915 | 1825 | (910) | $250.00 | 102 | Cape Hatteras r2 | 06/01/91 | 12/21/93 | 934 | 1836 | (902) | $650.00 | 125 | Portland Head | 07/01/92 | 8/4/94 | 764 | 1610 | (846) | $575.00 | 156 | Point Arena | 11/01/95 | 4/5/96 | 156 | 1000 | (844) | $135.00 | 132 | Ponce de Leon | 01/01/93 | 11/15/94 | 683 | 1507 | (824) | $225.00 | 142 | Holland (Big Red) | 01/01/94 | 5/30/95 | 514 | 1311 | (797) | $150.00 | 181 | Thomas Point | 08/01/96 | 9/13/96 | 43 | 839 | (796) | $150.00 | 136 | Hilton Head | 01/01/93 | 12/1/94 | 699 | 1491 | (792) | $415.00 | 145 | Assateague | 01/01/94 | 6/12/95 | 527 | 1298 | (771) | $135.00 | 194 | Sanibel Island | 06/01/97 | 3/1/97 | (92) | 670 | (762) | | 140 | Diamond Head | 01/01/94 | 6/19/95 | 534 | 1291 | (757) | $140.00 | 138 | St. Augustine | 01/01/93 | 12/22/94 | 720 | 1470 | (750) | $450.00 | 177 | Alcatraz | 03/01/96 | 7/22/96 | 143 | 892 | (749) | $150.00 | 163 | Cape Canaveral | 03/01/96 | 8/7/96 | 159 | 876 | (717) | $110.00 | 180 | Drum Point | 02/01/97 | 1/27/97 | (5) | 703 | (708) | $100.00 | 137 | St. Simons | 01/01/93 | 1/16/95 | 745 | 1445 | (700) | $200.00 | 187 | Middle Bay | 01/01/97 | 1/27/97 | 26 | 703 | (677) | $100.00 | 128 | S.E. Block Island | 07/01/92 | 11/15/94 | 867 | 1507 | (640) | $230.00 | 196 | Cape Henry (Old & New) | 06/01/97 | 7/9/97 | 38 | 540 | (502) | | 133 | Tybee | 01/01/93 | 5/23/95 | 872 | 1318 | (446) | $135.00 | 134 | Key West | 01/01/93 | 5/23/95 | 872 | 1318 | (446) | $180.00 | 104 | Sandy Hook | 01/01/91 | 5/25/94 | 1240 | 1681 | (441) | $200.00 | 135 | Ocracoke | 01/01/93 | 5/30/95 | 879 | 1311 | (432) | $135.00 | 189 | Morris Island - Then | 01/01/97 | 6/1/97 | 151 | 578 | (427) | | 190 | Morris Island - Now | 01/01/97 | 6/1/97 | 151 | 578 | (427) | | 126 | Nauset Beach | 07/01/92 | 3/30/95 | 1002 | 1372 | (370) | $150.00 | 129 | New London Ledge | 07/01/92 | 3/30/95 | 1002 | 1372 | (370) | $130.00 | 118 | Old Mackinac Point | 01/01/92 | 1/27/95 | 1122 | 1434 | (312) | $150.00 | 148 | New Canal | 01/01/95 | 8/7/96 | 584 | 876 | (292) | $85.00 | 168 | Cape May | 04/01/96 | 4/8/97 | 372 | 632 | (260) | | 117 | Boston Harbor | 07/01/91 | 1/27/95 | 1306 | 1434 | (128) | $130.00 | 158 | Currituck | 11/01/95 | 4/8/97 | 524 | 632 | (108) | $130.00 | 144 | Heceta Head | 07/07/94 | 8/21/96 | 776 | 862 | (86) | | 182 | Spectacle Reef | 12/01/95 | 6/1/97 | 548 | 578 | (30) | | 183 | Saint Joseph North Pier | 12/01/95 | 6/1/97 | 548 | 578 | (30) | | 184 | 30 Mile Point | 12/01/95 | 6/1/97 | 548 | 578 | (30) | | 121 | Marblehead | 01/01/92 | 6/19/95 | 1265 | 1291 | (26) | $115.00 | 124 | Split Rock | 01/01/92 | 6/19/95 | 1265 | 1291 | (26) | $120.00 | 175 | Cape Lookout | 02/01/96 | 7/7/97 | 522 | 542 | (20) | | 101 | Admiralty Head | 01/01/91 | 12/22/94 | 1451 | 1470 | (19) | $135.00 | 151 | Jupiter | 01/01/95 | 12/23/96 | 722 | 738 | (16) | $125.00 | 152 | Tawas Point | 01/01/95 | 12/23/96 | 722 | 738 | (16) | $100.00 | 185 | Sharps Island | 09/01/96 | 10/24/97 | 418 | 433 | (15) | |
Calculations done on 12/31/98
Based on *today's* market - what are the sleepers? Oh, how 'bout Cape May, or Currituck? I think Holland and Burrow's Island are still gonna move up.
What to Buy? Where it gets interesting is to see the rankings for all the models that *aren't* on this list. Down the road, I'll post some of those numbers. A tidbit for now: there's a lot of pieces lined up behind Pensacola.
What do you think?
Rgds, __ /im
Appropriate credits to 'Collecting Figures' magazine.
[This message has been edited by JTimothyA (edited 12-31-98).]
|
|
|
Re: HL Factoid #11 part 1 - What to Buy?
#72737
12/31/98 06:23 PM
|
Joined: Dec 1969
Posts: 44
Rich Boyes
Member
|
Member
Joined: Dec 1969
Posts: 44 |
Tim,
Thanks for a good attempt to discern a method to the madness. The correlations hold up fairly well with just enough anomalies to prove that predictability of HL futures will never become a sure thing.
I think that Ocracoke has certainly awakened, but that Cape Henry and Morris Island may have a longer nap before showing some life on the secondary market. Although Jupiter has a relatively low negative, I think its desirability has been recognized.
As you note, there are a lot of variables to account for and some just don't respond to reason.
Maybe you can start the HL Handicappers' Club complete with pick sheets like at the track.
|
|
|
Re: HL Factoid #11 part 1 - What to Buy?
#72738
12/31/98 11:17 PM
|
Joined: Dec 1969
Posts: 2,300
JTimothyA
OP
Saint
|
OP
Saint
Joined: Dec 1969
Posts: 2,300 |
Thanks for the feedback, Rich. These are the only regular LE models with a negative result for the far right column. Here are the others with a negative that weren't included in my list of standard LEs. Big Bay Point (976) Point Fermin (641) Colchester Reef (610) White Shoal (487) New Point Loma (457) Rose Island REXA (328) Stonington Harbor (65) Legacy Lighthouse (61) All of these are slightly skewed because, except for the Legacy Light, they have a fixed retirement date. Remember the ones in the chart and above are the only pieces with a negative rating - all other retired models have a positive result. So if a model gets a negative rating at all, keep an eye on it. As for low positives, the lowest is West Quoddy at 30, followed by Bolivar 57, Biloxi 89, and Pensacola 109. Finding any of these at retail warrants snapping them up. (West Quoddy is out, but the others can be had through Retired@Retail ) Another consideration that makes the algorithm interesting is the how the ratings come out on the 'less desirable' end of things. Consider the models with the 'worst' (least desirable) ratings: Cape Blanco 1461 North Head 1382 St. George's 1263 Yaquina Head 1201 Grosse Point 1067 Pretty much what you'd expect. It was actually this end of the results that surprised me the most. Rgds, __ /im
|
|
|
Re: HL Factoid #11 part 1 - What to Buy?
#72739
01/26/00 01:13 AM
|
Joined: Dec 1969
Posts: 2,300
JTimothyA
OP
Saint
|
OP
Saint
Joined: Dec 1969
Posts: 2,300 |
after losing several of my AOL factoids, I wanna hang to these...
|
|
|
Re: HL Factoid #11 part 1 - What to Buy?
#72740
04/10/03 07:14 PM
|
Joined: Dec 1969
Posts: 3,759
DANIEL
Saint
|
Saint
Joined: Dec 1969
Posts: 3,759 |
DANIEL
|
|
|
|
Forums39
Topics16,978
Posts184,640
Members2,579
|
Most Online10,155 Jan 14th, 2020
|
|
0 registered members (),
1,133
guests, and 1
spider. |
Key:
Admin,
Global Mod,
Mod
|
|
|