Fred has supplied some most excellent data on prices paid for pieces from the Southern Belles collection - thanks Fred, great work.

Four observations on Fred's data:

1) (the dramatic divergence in price between Tybee and Ocracoke - for a long long time these were within $10-$25 of one another. Ocracoke has sprinted far ahead of its sibling. (Tybee, avg $212, Ocracoke, avg. $312)

2) the drop in avg. price of Key West and St. Simons from the $275-$325 range. (Key West avg $245, St.Simon avg.$248)

3) the avg. price of a St. Augustine is almost 10% less than it was 2 years ago and Hilton Head is also off by at least that much. (Auggie avg. $418, Sea Pines avg.$370)

Anyone care to offer reasons for any of these observations? I can think of a few, but most know my views by now... Got any ideas?

Not on a golf course in a thunderstorm,
__
/im

(I'm posting a reply to Fred's message here in BTN because messages about HL value tracking are part of this forum's charter as laid out by The Skipper.)

Sorry Tim,
But I still think this is a Secondary Market item. Except for dealers, all the items on eBay are secondary market (maybe even the dealers).
Maybe the Skipper suggested this forum item before the Secondary Market was created.
My memory ain't all that great.
The Ancient Mariner
Either way - one or the other of these threads should be moved and appended.

My memory ain't too great most times, either Fred - but I think Tim's correct. I suggested a separate forum and he pointed out that price trends - and aren't those all in the secondary market'? -- were part of the "By the numbers" Forum. (Although Art is blitzing it with his surveys right now.)

Really, though I think the Lightning Rod surveys will be helpful over the long term when we can narrow down where these production changes took place. If you haven't participated in these surveys, please do so soon.

John

I was hoping someone else woul post a reply by now.

But, a couple of observations of my own.

As much as I would like to say that GLOWs are killing the secondary market, I'll have to wait and see. But.............

For one thing, eBay is cutting out the middleman (the secondary market dealer). Isn't that an approxiamte 20% drop in price. They ain't in the business just because they are nice guys trrying to lend a helping hand.

The second thing may be market saturation. There are only so many super-Wackos who have to collect all of the LEs (even for specific geographical areas). Also, how many are on the internet. Many of these superWackos have a budget constraint. And, "If we can't get it this week there will be another one next week". (supply and demand?)

Also a look at the sellers attitude. I only paid $xx for it. If I can get $xxx for it, I'm way ahead. Are the sellers serious collectors?

Incidently, I'm seeing the same trends in other collectibles. eBay is making it much easier for someone to raise a little extra cash and make a profit at the same time by getting rid of a collectible (or souvenier) they have lost interest in.

Even with 500+ registered on the forum that is less than 10% of the people who own the 5500 series LEs. Even if we use statistical analysis, aren't we looking at a very skewed sampling base.

The Ancient Mariner
Back to the underground laboratories. Digger, dig in your own turf.

>>Even with 500+ registered on the forum that is less than 10% of the people who own the 5500 series LEs. Even if we use statistical analysis, aren't we looking at a very skewed sampling base.<<

I don't know if its skewed or not. The question is not what percentage of HL collectors are on-line, but rather what percentage of secondary market sales take place through on-line venues. That includes The Market Place, e-bay, Lighthousekeepers.com, etc. etc.

I don't have a clue, but my off-the-cuff guess is that at least 50% (and probably more) of secondary market activity goes through folks who advertise on-line. If true, I think thats a reasonable base from which to get a sense of what's happening generally and for individual pieces. And, fwiw, I'm not sure how else to come by numbers. One exception I can think of is the brokerage/consignment market published in 'The Guiding Light' by Jim & Julie Rutherford (hlsg@aol.com).

One thing E-bay gives us no clue about is Trades. I was about to suggest that someone should start 'Swapmeet.com', but sure enuf - such a site exists although it is not active.

Rgds,
__
/im

Hi Tim and Fred,

I was very interested in reading your observations and comments.

I don't know if I'm a "typical" purchaser of HL but I may fall into the category you are speaking of. I am a new collector to the line. I started in February. I use the itnernet, ebay and local retail stores to purchase my pieces. My logic for paying for pieces is such:

Beginning of the year, I had more ready cash than I have now. I had gift certificates from Christmas, a bonus from work, extra money put aside for Christmas gifts that I did not have to spend and hopefully a tax refund to look forward to. This is one reason I spent more for a piece then than I would now. Second, would a GLOW stop me from buy a LE? Absolutely not. I cannot justify spending the money for one older piece especially if I could get two newer pieces for that amount. Would I buy a GLOW? Yes if I like it but not because I couldn't get the LE. There are a few LE's that are retired that I would like and when I find a good price, I'll get them then. But I don't intend to have the full line so I don't feel pressured to pay the higher prices for some LE's.

I have found secondary brokers that are laughable at the prices they want. Sometimes as much as 75 percent more than the piece is on ebay and in some stores where they are still in stock at the retail price.

Maybe as more people are buying computers (I've only had mine 7 months) and have internet access, they are finding other markets out there and that is causing prices to drop. I know I have found some internet sellers that I've purchased from and saved some money.

In a reverse twist, I also collect Gone With the Wind plates. In the beginning of the year they were much lower in bid price than they are now. They are now selling at two times what they were in January. Everything must go in cycles.

Joanne

Thanks for bringing this to the forefront. You must have read my mind. I just placed a bid on an LE just a minute ago and I am sitting back wondering why... I would buy a GLOW, in fact I just purchased a Hatteras GLOW while on vacation. I'm just a "normal" working guy who can't afford to spend that kind of money on a HL. The GLOW's allow me to own a great copy of a overpriced LE. I was just looking over the average price list of the southern belles and it is outrageous!
I have a feeling that with time this market will CRASH....What do you think?

"A great copy of an overpriced LE"

Hmmm, very interesting observation here. We are undoubtly paying the extra $ for the "Limited" classification. Makes you stop and think a bit. Earlier this summer I stopped at a little "General Store" down the road a piece. Never having been there before I had to look over all their wares. Way back in the corner of the store I found a very well done model of a country cottage. Bottom is labeled "The Kent" (Olde England's Classic Cottages) made in China. The price? $2.99 Even has those rubber footie things on the bottom. Not HL quality but probably equal to some of their competitors.

Nothing to do with the price of Southern Bells but the previous post got me going.

Mombo



[This message has been edited by mombo (edited 08-27-99).]

"I'm just a "normal" working guy "

Most people on this forum are not "normal". Why do you think we are called wackos?