The Big Picture

After a shaky start, the long drop in auction prices for retired Harbour Lights appears to have flattened out somewhat in 2000. While this is encouraging, the overall tendancy is still downward in my estimation. There are still a number of pieces slowly backsliding, and fewer are going up than down right now. If this topic interests you, I strongly encourage you to download the Excel 5.0 Spreadsheet and to look at the graphs. They tell a story that cannot easily be told in words or numbers alone.

Uppers

The biggest positive news comes from Jupiter, consistently trading around $170 near year's end with a couple of pops into the $200 range. This is a nice, convincing, 40% uptick from January, 2000. Currituck and Cape Lookout appear to be inching ahead from their retail price base, while Thomas Point and Stonington Harbor have made U-turns and are now back to where they were at the start of the year after sagging over the spring & summer.

Downers

On the downside, the estimable St. Auggie took the biggest one-year hit, losing around $100 of value (roughly 20-25%) since the beginning of the year. Cape May is drifting lower after showing a glimmer of hope early in the year. Big Bay Point and Burrows Island look pretty cheap right now compared to their historic highs, and even compared to the start of 2000.

Remarkable Individuals

On sale

These might still go lower, but they look pretty attractive to me right now:

St. Augustine LE. Recent trading neighborhood: $325.
Burrows Island. Recent trading neighborhood: $225
Big Bay Point. Recent trading neighborhood: $180

Stalwarts

These models have shown good staying power at relatively high levels throughout this declining market:

Southeast Block Island LE averaged $280.44 for the year.
Ocracoke averaged $335.69 for the year.
Cape Neddick LE averaged $161.43 for the year.

Rising Star

Jupiter Inlet, recently trading at around $180.00 This is a sudden and sustained increase that began mid-year after dipping into the $85 dollar neighborhood for a while in late spring.

Little Lighthouses that Could

Showing some upward mobility, these second generation models may be the eventual Yuppies of HLdom. I think they can, I think they can.

Diamond Head: $157.58 for the year with a high of $255.19.
Currituck Beach: $102.52 on the year with a high of $200.00.
Cape Lookout: $73.26 overall with a high of $127.50.

Fallen Angels

These were never among the real high-fliers, but are the once-proud leaders of the supporting cast:

Point Fermin. Recent trading area: $95
Old Mackinac LE. Recent trading area: $125
Point Arena. Recent trading area: $90

Flash in the Pan

Once the hottest thing since sliced bread, these models have taken it on the nose and are trading at near-commodity prices. Big disappointments, all.

Cape Canaveral LE. Average for the year: $100.
Thomas Point Shoal LE. Average for the year: $103
Alcatraz Island LE. Average for the year: $79
Sanibel Island LE. Average for the year: $116

Downright boring

Trading in a stable range below retail, these relative newcomers hopefully just need more time to mature. Even after quickly retiring, there are no increases in value on the horizon, although they are all great looking models.

Morris Island, Then and Now set. Average for the year: $105.88. This is almost a 2-for-1 sale on a great pair of models. Cheap, cheap, cheap.

Cape Florida. Average for the year: $56.28. Another great model whose aspirations were thwarted by a 10,000 edition size.

Hillsboro Inlet. The most hyped model to come along in years (largely due to the 6,500 edition size after a string of 9,500 and 10k releases) landed with a dull thud. Y2K average price: 105.92

Below is a summary chart for all of Y2K for the pieces that we track. Here are a few interpretive notes before you go there:

The "Expected Range of Prices" is a mathamatical property of the data, not an emotional judgement. It is based upon a statistical analysis of the variation within the data. More accurately, it is comprised of the upper and lower control limits on an individuals/moving range chart. (I have added these limits to each graph to aid interpretation of what is unusual. The limits are shown on the graphs as broken red lines. The solid red line between them is the average price of all auctions.) The more volitile the price of a piece, the wider the "Expected Range of Prices" will be. That is why the expected low price for Holland LE (whose market price tends to hug the average) is so much higher ($93.15) than that ($29.22) of Assateague II LE, which is all over the place, price-wise. This despite great similarity in average price for the two pieces. Given the background noise caused by the auction-to-auction variation, ups and downs within the expected range cannot be safely interpreted as being unusual unless certain well-defined patterns exist. The data are what they are. Please don't blame me if you don't like what they are telling us.

For the more rare pieces at least, the data are probably skewed to the high end of this "Expected Range of Prices". It is hard to imagine, for example, a MIB Southeast Block Island LE going for $69.85 on eBay. And while $613.28 might seem high for an upper limit on this piece, one did actually go for $511.09 during the year. For a more commonly traded piece such as Alcatraz LE or Sanibel LE, the lower limit is more credible. In all cases, you just never know what's going to happen on the high end.

Humans tend to see (or want to see) trends in random data where none really exist. The "2000 Trend" is my interpretation of each chart's direction, based on the application of several accepted tests of the data. While to many this is somewhat akin to reading tea leaves, the rules do remove most of the emotion from the judgement. While a real trend may be missed in the early stages by these rules, they do tend to pan out over time.

Enough of that. Here's the chart:

Model	Piece Name	Search Name	# auctions	avg. price	avg. # bids	low	high	Expected Range of Prices			2000 Trend
HL103	West Quoddy Head	Quoddy	29	$142.92	6.7	$66.00	$207.50	$41.05	to	$244.80	none
HL108	Burrows Island	Burrows	14	$266.59	10.9	$187.50	$380.62	$105.35	to	$421.92	none
HL113	Ft. Niagara	(Orv)	26	$116.23	7.2	$76.77	$202.50	$56.44	to	$155.73	none
HL115	St. George's Reef	(Orv)	28	$73.31	4.4	$41.06	$227.50	$23.53	to	$97.80	none
HL116	Castle Hill	(Orv)	20	$91.22	8.6	$56.00	$153.50	$43.83	to	$132.07	none
HL117	Boston Harbor	Boston	13	$184.90	5.5	$125.00	$454.00	$83.18	to	$241.85	none
HL118	Old Mackinac	Mackinac	18	$198.84	8.4	$91.00	$400.00	$107.09	to	$170.09	down
HL122	Buffalo	(Orv)	21	$80.50	7.5	$52.00	$108.00	$43.49	to	$117.50	none
HL124	Split Rock	Split Rock	15	$85.24	7.6	$45.99	$192.50	$22.67	to	$132.41	none
HL126	Nauset Beach	Nauset	20	$195.29	7.8	$127.50	$405.00	$106.95	to	$267.04	down
HL128	SE Block Island	(Orv)	14	$280.44	6.6	$152.50	$511.09	$69.85	to	$613.28	none
HL135	Ocracoke Island	Ocracoke	21	$335.69	14.0	$158.76	$430.00	$249.25	to	$438.31	none
HL138	St. Augustine	Augustine	22	$369.69	9.3	$150.00	$535.00	$213.07	to	$592.20	down sharply
HL139	Barnegat	Barnegat	10	$259.06	9.1	$168.50	$356.51	$77.58	to	$428.44	none
HL140	Diamond Head	Diamond Head	26	$157.58	10.1	$96.00	$251.50	$97.32	to	$255.19	none
HL141	Cape Neddick	Neddick	20	$161.43	5.9	$65.00	$305.00	$102.01	to	$252.25	none
HL142	Holland	Holland	16	$135.13	7.9	$81.00	$200.50	$93.15	to	$210.90	none
HL143	Montauk Point	Montauk	22	$133.19	6.5	$70.00	$266.00	$88.59	to	$202.83	none
HL145	Assateague Mold 2	Assateague	30	$135.88	8.0	$85.00	$255.00	$29.22	to	$243.82	none
HL151	Jupiter Inlet	(Orv)	31	$128.37	10.2	$81.00	$205.01	$66.42	to	$171.87	up sharply
HL156	Point Arena	Arena	44	$111.76	4.6	$72.02	$200.00	$52.78	to	$167.05	none
HL158	Currituck	Currituck	35	$102.52	7.1	$70.00	$200.00	$66.94	to	$130.50	up slightly
HL163	Cape Canaveral	(Orv)	57	$100.60	5.7	$51.00	$202.50	$70.06	to	$130.39	none
HL168	Cape May	Cape May	41	$89.09	6.3	$61.00	$150.00	$36.95	to	$138.56	down slightly
HL175	Cape Lookout	Lookout	38	$73.26	4.2	$49.99	$127.50	$44.62	to	$99.92	up slightly
HL177	Alcatraz Island	(Orv)	77	$80.20	4.2	$31.00	$157.51	$49.16	to	$109.06	down slightly
HL181	Thomas Point	Thomas	49	$96.59	5.5	$45.00	$137.51	$64.57	to	$141.43	down slightly, mostly rebounded
HL189, HL190	Morris Island, Then & Now Set	Morris	54	$105.88	4.6	$56.00	$285.00	$48.17	to	$152.10	none
HL194	Sanibel Island	Sanibel	68	$115.93	4.4	$56.00	$275.00	$70.07	to	$162.02	none
HL196	Cape Henry	Henry	52	$85.77	4.3	$40.00	$125.00	$43.55	to	$96.93	none
HL209	Cape Florida	Cape Florida	39	$56.28	4.9	$46.00	$98.00	$39.29	to	$73.19	none
HL225	Hillsboro Inlet	Hillsboro	41	$105.92	5.9	$64.00	$175.00	$41.58	to	$171.68	none
HL501	Point Fermin	Fermin	29	$105.01	4.6	$63.01	$149.00	$44.57	to	$166.96	none
HL502	Stonington Harbor	(Orv)	35	$92.87	5.5	$56.00	$167.50	$54.55	to	$126.88	down slightly, mostly rebounded, remains volatile
HL503	Spyglass Set	(Orv)	19	$44.27	3.5	$20.50	$77.50	$9.79	to	$78.75	none
HL602	Sunken Rock	Sunken Rock	52	$39.99	5.3	$19.99	$152.50	$18.40	to	$54.89	none
HL603	Edgartown	Edgartown	32	$51.52	6.9	$30.00	$127.50	$24.16	to	$76.73	none
HL700	Big Bay Point	Big Bay	51	$228.13	11.8	$152.50	$297.00	$185.13	to	$275.92	drifting lower
HL701	Colchester Reef	Colchester	45	$61.54	3.1	$41.01	$100.00	$16.41	to	$110.34	drifting lower
HL704	White Shoal	White Shoal	25	$83.31	3.9	$50.00	$131.02	$50.16	to	$114.76	none

©2001 Art Seaman. & Orv White
[This message has been edited by Art (edited 02-02-2001).]

Very interesting info, Art. I think you would be a great candidate to publish a successor to the HL Survival Guide.

Bob

I was thinking exactly the same thing...

Here's a spot of historical perspective to add to the prices Art and Orv have collected.

HL#	Model	Secondary 1997	Secondary 1999	E-Bay 2000
HL 108	Burrows Island	$280	$279	$225
HL 118	Old Mackinac Point	$135	$165	$125
HL 128	SE Block Island	$275	$348	$280
Hl 135	Ocracoke	$135	No Data	$336
HL 138	St. Augustine	$450	$513	$325
HL 140	Diamond Head	$130	$155	$158
HL 158	Currituck	$130	$97	$103
HL 175	Cape Lookout	No Data	$80	$73
HL 700	Big Bay Point	$177	$285	$180

If you can indeed find a St. Augustine at $325, consider that a very good price. The trend over time has seen St.Augustine as the front-runner among the Sourthern Belles followed by Hilton Head. It is conjectured the Belles have now established themselves as a collectible set - centerpieces in what I've termed \'The Sweet 16\' of the HL Collection. When seen as a set, a certain leveling effect might be expected - although not leveling toward the lowest common denominator! There was a time when Ocracoke and Tybee were the laggards of the group - as late as '97 Tybee, Ocracoke coudl be had for under $100. Based on an earlier graph posted by Art it looks like the drop in St. Auggie took place in the second half of 2000.

The rise in popularity of North Carolina lights seems to mirror the ascendancy of the state as a hi-tech area. Though I'm sure long time natives may take exception to that. :-)

Poor Burrows is something of an enigma. With a scant 2563 edition size its drop in price may be a bellwether for the size of the group of real Wackos who are after all the models. It really should be selling for more based strictly on scarcity, but looks count too. While its one of my favorite West Coast lights, typical comments suggest it lacks sufficient curb appeal to pull itself up by its boot straps.

Diamond Head has been on my 'Recommended to Buy' list now for the past 3 years. Its slowly been creeping up and is now at the point where its gonna lose its place as a sleeper. Same thing already happened to Holland.

Pithy philosophical sidebar:

Quote:

Humans tend to see (or want to see) trends in random data where none really exist.

I presume this statement wasn't made randomly - LOL!. Humans also tend to dismiss as random those events for which causal relationships remain obscure. One issue is our inability to know where the line clearly lies between the random and the rational. When left to the numerologists alone the definition of randomness almost becomes tautological. To add interpretation to a lump of numbers - even if it is to call them random - is a distinctly human activity - there is no randomnality (?) in and of itself. (Consider Freedom is predicated on the precedence of the order of knowing over the order of being.)

For one of the better discussions in the forum on pricing and 'what it all means', read or re-read the Factoid #11 Discussion Group Therapy thread.

Thanks to Art & Orv for collecting bending folding stapling this data over the past year.

From the foredeck of the French Wine Tanker 'Le Snot',
Jean Paul

[This message has been edited by JTimothyA (edited 02-02-2001).]

Golly, Mr. Peabody! It looks as if the Wayback Machine has landed us right in the middle of the 1997 Secondary HL Market!

Any newbies out there wish they started collecting in 1997? Here's a second chance.

Thanks for providing the longer-term context, Tim.

------------------
-Art

Here's the graph that Tim linked to above, updated to reflect data through year's end. Tim is exactly right - the significant drop happened (or began) mid-year.
[img]http://albums.photopoint.com/j/View?u=42289&a=613183&p=39825180&Sequence=0&res=high[/img]
This graph is one of the many available by downloading the Excel spreadsheet mentioned in the first posting in this thread.

------------------
-Art

Thanks for the very insightful information. The graph above looks like the stock market. I guess with the secondary market lower on older lights i better get the checkbook out to fill in those missing pieces.

All of the above work is very much apprecitated.

Very interesting Art, Orv and Tim. You guys are doing a great service for we collectors. I 've been able to follow in my mind many of these prices throughout the year especially while trying to fill in my Southern Belles. The only major Southern Belle that I see that does not falter in price was Ocracoke. I think the low end price you have, was probably a one time deal? Second half ebay was consistently $300+. Ocracoke(21 available) and (SE Block is another 14) seems like the piece everyone needed or wanted in 2000. The number available also effect the price as well as Glow releases. I've always thought some old collectors were replacing LEs with Glows, and I always though I saw a rise in availablity between the time of announcement and release of Glow.
As for Alcatraz, Sannibel, Cape Canaveral and Thomas Point it's supply and demand. They were the highest available auctions in 2000. 77, 68, 57, and 49 If these great pieces again become more infrequent on ebay (duh), they will again rise.
My current observation for January 2001 is act quick because there are a lot of collections being put out there at low prices. I've gotten a Sandy Hook , West Quoddy lr, and Split Rock lr for 80@. And just won a New Point Loma mini for $152.
I've seen low prices before in January but these are amazin'.
Thanks again guys, it's great to have some hard numbers to evaluate with.
- Bob

[This message has been edited by rscroope (edited 02-02-2001).]

Yup. Go to the spreadsheet, look at the graph. Otherwise, the "Expected Range" tells the story fairly well. If the low or the high price is outside of the expected range, chances are pretty good that it's an anomaly.



And this is probably indicitive of the hoarding that we all know was going on. Those pieces were retired quickly, but not by "one of each" collectors. They were bought up in a speculative, overheated market by folks hoping to make a buck on them. Enter: John's Dispersion Theory (we've come full circle now, back to the Factoid #11 link that Tim provided above). These pieces languish -- and will continue to languish -- until *at least* the majority of them are in the strong hands of "one of each" collectors. I say "at least" because the big question is: "Do 10,000 such collectors even exist?" Ergo, the argument for smaller edition sizes.

------------------
-Art

Excuse me Professor, isn`t it recess time yet.
terry

Let me say a big "Thank You" to Art & Orv for tracking all this information for the past year.

Keeping track from ebay records isn't easy and I think many will agree that seeing the summary allows us to see a 'picture' of the secondary market that we would not otherwise have seen.

Thanks, Guys.


To give credit to Orv as well....

[This message has been edited by JChidester (edited 02-03-2001).]

A few mid-evening thoughts on the HL market.



We don't want to confuse retirement with availability in the marketplace. Models retire quickly in virtue of purchase by dealers. With the exception of Alcatraz, each of the above pieces was structurally unique and broke new ground for HL. Only Sannibel was put on allocation. The longest any of the 4 were on the market before retirement was about 4 months (Canaveral).

I believe the only one of these pieces that may have been 'hoarded by speculative collectors' was Thomas Point. It was brisk sales of this one that caught dealers off guard and led them to snap up Drum Point and Middle Bay. I believe it was these brisk sales to dealers that caused the speculative market - not the other way around.

When you look at the Argand Wick factor, none of these 4 really stand out. They all fall in the (150)-(165) range.

Looking back over the prices we see in the above charts I'll go (farther) out on a limb
and advise - if you're wondering what pieces to buy first in this down market, pick from those with an Argand Wick Factor below (200) - that's negative 200. Looking at the spreadsheet (available for download in the BTN forum) its pretty obvious where desirability lies. Sure there's a few exceptions but by and large the cut-off point seems to be around New London Ledge. So if you ever thought about acquiring Burrows Island - nows the time.


Now for some idle speculation...

The sale of pieces between August of '96 (Thomas Point) and January of '97 (Drum Point) caused HL erroneously to self-validate going to the 9500 edition size. Let's call this the Point-to-Point-Disconsolation. A decision they made around the end of '95.

Imo, the misjudgement was not so much trying out the 9500 edition size, but going from there to 10k rather than back down to a smaller edition size. It was the Point-to-Point Disconsolation that colored their judgement. Given they must production schedule edition sizes probably 9 months to a year in advance I'm guessing the die of our current predicament was cast around early Summer of '97. And thus we saw a 10k Horton Point in February of '98. By then they probably realized the problem (edition size too high) but it was too late to rectify for the initial releases of '99. The decision to start reducing edition sizes may have been made in the Fall of '98 and yielded the first tentative smaller edition sizes of Cove Island (8000) and La Corona (6500) in June of '99. Someone in the family was still convinced of the viability of the 10k edition size in late Fall of '98. Sell 10,000 South Bass Islands? I don't think so. At least the 10k '99 models aren't retired and presumably the entire lot of each has not been produced.

If nothing else these musings point to the risks HL must take and the time lag involved. They actually reacted quickly to their miscalculation. Without a buy-back, sale prices or something getting a bunch of 9500 and 10k pieces off the shelves its gonna take a few more years to burn through the results of decisions made several years ago. It might be the structure of their contracts with the Eastern manufacturers thats caught them between a rock and 10k. Just speculation on my part.

Of course edition sizes aren't the only factor - there's still those pesky GLOWs. You didn't think I wouldn't mention them did you ;->.

From the cockpit of the USLS Foglifter somewhere over the UP,
__
/im

A final self-congratulatory note... In the thread referenced above by the link for the Argand Wick Factor, we were asked in January of 1999 to predict the top 15 lights for January 2001. The prediction is listed in that thread. I'll leave to my fellow archeologists to see how we did with Future Facts^TM. :-)




[This message has been edited by JTimothyA (edited 02-03-2001).]

[This message has been edited by JTimothyA (edited 02-03-2001).]

I also want to thank Art,Orv,and Tim.Its great to have a passion and to be able to share it with those of a like passion.Please don`t let my earlier post and its weak sarcastic attempt downplay their(our)passion.>buy what you want and enjoy<
terry

Thanks for the clarification, Tim. I never intended to infer otherwise. Although you placed 'hoarded by speculative collectors' in quotes, I actually said, "folks hoping to make a buck," which includes both dealers and individual collectors.

I recognize that retirements are primarily dealer-driven. In a perfect market, dealers order what customers demand. But alas, dealers think, too. This sometimes causes a disconnect between HL shipments and retail market forces. [For interesting and germane reading, check out "the beer game" in Peter Senge's book, The Fifth Discipline]



------------------
-Art

Yes. I understood the contrast to be between ""one of each" collectors" and something. It only made sense (to me) to contrast one-of-each-collectors with more-than-one-of-each-speculating-collectors. A contrast between one-of-each-collectors and dealers didn't make sense to me because:

a) regardless of how quickly a piece retires every piece is available through a dealer before it hits the secondary market, and that is the market the charts speak to, and

b) I believe if someone orders from a dealer the dealer will sell to them if the dealer has the piece. Or put slightly different, I believe the number of dealers who would not sell a piece if they had it, but who would choose to forgo a sale today in hopes of getting a higher price later on the secondary market, is a very very small number. I (perhaps mistakenly) assumed your point was about hoarding which to me implied speculation with the goal of higher gain than retail would bring.

I've read messages that suggest dealers are 'dumping' pieces on e-Bay. If some dealers consumed mass quantities of Thomas Point, Alcatraz, Sanibel, or Canaveral in '96 and '97 and are today getting rid of them through e-Bay at prices close to retail then those dealers are indeed having an impact on secondary prices by pulling them down. That would mean there are different reasons or segments/types of sellers causing price drops because prices for other earlier pieces are also dropping. (I doubt there is a hoard of St. Augustines in the hands of a dealer anywhere who is now dumping them.) Perhaps Retired@Retail could tell us how many of the 4 lights under discussion they've seen available.

Stranger things have happened, but I'm inclined to believe the hoarding was almost entirely from collectors and not dealers. The market capable of supporting 9.5k or 10k edition sizes just never materialized.

I suspect what we're seeing with price drops on models with these edition sizes is a result of that fact. Or from a different angle, the rise in prices in a piece like Thomas Point or Alcatraz was based on the market's incorrect judgement that there would be (or was) a tremendous growth in the number of collectors and the number of disposable dollars allocated for lighthouse model purchases.

I don't know if I'm ready to suggest that the increase in the edition size by itself caused people to believe the market was much stronger than it was and thus caused them to speculate. Whatever the reason, its irrational but not nearly so when compared to beany babies. :-)

Snowing again here on Planet Fresnel,
__
/im

Beanie Babies? Do they still sell those things? I don't visit too many collectible stores, but when I do I don't recall seeing any BB action anymore. Were they just a "flash in the pan"?

Bob

[This message has been edited by Bob M (edited 02-04-2001).]

'Appreciate the excellent review, Art. As always, you do a great job of putting the whole thing together. Thanks....

Credit where credit is due.

I only gather info, Art is the one that does the actual work and makes it mean something.

BTW, concerning Alcatraz, in the last year there is one dealer that has easily sold at least 100 of the Pieces. If I am not mistaken they are in fairly close proximity to The Rock. (And I'm not talking about the wrestler.)

Thanks Orv, but never underestimate your importance in this. The data collection is the most tedious part, and you also serve as my monthly reminder to get off my tush and publish. Besides, it's great just to have someone to do this with.

Akin to the Alcatraz Affair, there is one dealer out there that seems to have a limitless supply of Morris Island sets to sell at $100/pair. Seems like dozens have been sold this way. These two examples (Alcatraz and Morris Island) were foremost in my mind when I lumped dealers in along with individual hoarder-collectors in my comments earlier.

------------------
-Art

I wonder how much effect the closing day/time of an auction makes in the price achieved?

I would speculate that auctions that end on weekends during daylight or evening hours should result in higher dollars since more bidders would be available to bid at the last minute.

And conversely, auctions that close in the middle of the night or during working hours on weekdays should bring lower prices since fewer people would be available for last minute bidding.

Any data to support or refute that assumption, gentlemen?

Of course the "Buy it now" choice which came late last year might obviate this.

I agree that the best time to try to find a deal is off hours and days since there seems to be less activity therefore less competive bidding.

By all means John... I have sold a lot of audio gear on eBay. When I first started, I didn't give much thought when setting up my auctions, particularly not thinking about the ending date and times of my auctions. Now, I set up my auctions so they end either weeknights after 9:00 p.m. or mid-afternoon on weekends. This gives the west coasters time to get home from work during weekdays to bid, and plenty of time on the weekends. After doing this, I have discovered that I get much more activity on my bids, and usually much higher sales.

Tim - Keeping the flame lit...

While I was waiting at the doctors office a few months ago I noticed an E-bay magazine (published by E-bay, or for E-bay) among the pile of magazines in the waiting room, and when I was looking thru it I found an area with statistics and I was quite surprised to find that the highest traffic was on Wednesdays, Like Tim I always thought that evenings on the weekends would be the best time to have an auction end, but I guess that maybe it's higher during the week during the day because those who don't have computers at home are browsing from work.