Looks like we're in for a treat! Those of you under clear to partly cloudy skies Sunday and possibly Monday night, step outside and look! They are talking major event, possibly as far south as California! Here is the email I got, and you can read more at www.spacew.com .

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
Issued: 01:00 UTC on 16 January 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: 03:00 UTC ON 16 JANUARY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 18 JANUARY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 16-17 JANUARY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 16-18 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 50, 70, 30, 12 (16 - 19 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12-18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18-48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO UTAH TO COLORADO TO
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO ARKANSAS TO TENNESSEE TO SOUTH
CAROLINA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

NORTHERN SPAIN AND PORTUGAL TO SOUTHERN FRANCE TO ITALY TO ROMANIA TO
UKRAIN TO SOUTHERN RUSSIA.

SYNOPSIS...

A potentially significant coronal mass ejection has been observed
containing an Earthward-directed component. It is presently expected to
arrive sometime during the mid to late UTC hours of 16 January and has the
potential to produce periods of severe auroral storm activity. That activity,
if it materializes, may become visible well into the lower latitudes. A low
latitude auroral activity watch is being issued in concert with this middle
latitude auroral activity warning. The most intense periods of activity will
likely be late on 16 January and into 17 January (UTC days). For North
American observers, the best opportunity will be on the evening of 16
January and possibly into 17 January. A second strong CME was also recently
observed in association with another major class X2 solar flare that will
likely prolong disturbed levels of auroral activity into 17 and possibly 18
January (an analysis of this latest event is underway).

This is a potentially significant event. Observers interested in seeing
auroral activity are encouraged to watch the skies on 16 through 18 January.
Additional major levels of solar activity are possible over the next several
days.

This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
18 January. It will then be updated, downgraded to a watch or allowed to
expire altogether. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Warning **
_______________________________________________
Aurorawarn mailing list
Aurorawarn@spacew.com
http://spacew.com/mailman/listinfo/aurorawarn

Jennifer,

Could you translate into English please? :p

I figure I need to look North the evenings of Jan 16 & 17 & maybe even 18, but what time??

What is UTC?

Ignorant in Colorado

Hi Mel!

UTC is either four or five hours ahead of Eastern Time.

You got the looking north part right, and actually, if it's a really good show, it will be 360 degrees around you! Time could vary from right after sunset, to right before sunrise. The best average viewing time is near midnight your local time. Here is a link for more information and tips on viewing the aurora borealis:

Aurora Viewing Tips

More Aurora Viewing Tips

So wait...down to SC...does that mean...

I could see the Northern Lights in NJ?!?!

Greg, If the skies are clear possibly, Also your best chances are where its really dark, away from city lights, before or after the moon is up. Sometimes a weak aurora will look like pale green spokes of light going up.

If you want to try to capture it on film, here is what has worked for me.
400 speed film, my 24 - 120mm lens at 24mm at f3.5 for 30 seconds (I got about 75 nice pictures)
Last time around I had my second camera with 400 speed, a 24mm f1.8 lens at 30 seconds (which turned out to be way to long for a f 1.8, at least using 400 speed) if you have a lens that fast try going 5-10 seconds, with 8 seconds at f 1.8 being about equal 30 seconds at f 3.5

Also try going up and down a step or two with your exposures as you go.

Maybe Jen can add some advice also.

Greg, you can use your new S1. Set your ISO to 400, and go into manual mode. Turn your aperture (f-stop) to the smallest number possible, in your case, 2.8. Then, turn your shutter speed to 15 seconds, which is the longest that camera goes. It should look like 15" on your display. Mount it to a tripod, and make sure you look in your instruction book and manually set the focus to infinity. That step is particularly important because small digicams do NOT focus in the dark. Once you complete these steps, push the shutter button, and let it go! If 15 seconds is too long, try 10 seconds and 5 seconds. They will look like 10" and 5". Let me know if I can answer any other questions!

Aaw man, I seem to have missed it - barely. I think I was working my homework when it came through. Well, maybe next time. It looks from a computer map that I saw that predicted the lights' location the rest of the night, that I have missed it-missed it. Maybe next time. I was, through Googling, reading about a time in Oct. 2003 when the lights were as bright here in the NYC area as they are on the CF header, if not brighter. So I guess it can happen.

Thanks for the tips, though, Jen! I figured out a bit more about using my camera - usually, it's just on "Auto" mode. I might foodle (I just made that word up via typo, but I like it) around with it, maybe doing something with exposures somewhere...maybe a shot of the light in a lantern. I could use some good shots of Currituck at night, maybe when we go down in March. It's a good test subject, with that first order Fresnel.

Greg, it has not impacted yet, when it does, if it does it should last at the very least a few hours, whether or not it will be visible at lower latitudes remains to be seen.

After I posted that a couple minutes ago the Aurora level just jumped from level 5 before I last posted to level 8 just now, it may have just started!

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/pmap/pmapN.html

Thanks for posting that after I went to sleep. :rolleyes:

For those of you that somewhat understand the technical jargon of solar flares and the graphs used to chart them, this is the latest update from SpaceW.com -

Name: Cary Oler
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 23:23:45 +0000
Subject: [Forum] UPDATED SITUATION

Hi all. This is the current situation.

We have now observed what we believe are both of the coronal mass ejections
that were expected to arrive at the Earth. The most disturbed period of
geomagnetic and auroral storm activity passed the Earth about 12 hours ago
(around 13:00 UTC). But we aren't out of the woods yet, despite the
depressed solar wind values.

First, the strong proton radiation storm from the last X3.8 flare earlier
today has knocked out the ACE SWEPAM instrument. It is suffering from
contamination and is not reliable. The solar wind velocity, density and
temperature measurements will not be valid until radiation levels subside.
Don't rely on them.

Second, the magnetosphere has suffered a fairly strong punch and will take
some time to recover. During that time, sporadic and perhaps unexpected
auroral activity will occur over isolated regions, even when solar wind
conditions might not look particularly favorable for producing activity. So
it's important if you look for the northern lights to be patient. You might
not see anything at all - or you might. Your chances _will_ increase if the
IMF Bz component drops southward for a period of several hours.

Third, another strong geomagnetic storm is expected when effects from the
X3.8 flare associated coronal mass ejection impacts the Earth over the next
24 hours. An impact assessment is almost ready to publicize. We're expecting
an impact late on 18 January or early on 19 January. Disregard the public
bulletin issued by the Space Environment Center. They made a boo-boo,
stating the disturbance might start on 17 and 18 January (they're off 24
hours in that statement).

This next solar disturbance (from the X3.8 event) will probably be the last
disturbance that will produce notably strong geomagnetic and auroral
storming at the Earth. Region 10720 is moving out of the best position for
producing strong Earthward-directed impacts.

I hope this helps.

_______________________________________________
Forum mailing list, Forum@spacew.com
http://www.spacew.com/mailman/listinfo/forum
Image gallery: www.spacew.com/gallery

Well, we were at Winter Lights for the weekend, so I didn't see the alert for Sunday, but when I read it on Monday, was going to try Monday evening. Thanks Mr. Weatherman for the clouds. Better luck next time.

Joyce

Don't give up hope! If you have clear skies tonight, Tuesday, step outside every now and then between now and bedtime. We just had a huge CME hit from the most recent solar flare and the numbers are jumping. I'm unfortunately under clouds and 8 inches of snow predicted for tonight...GRRRR...

Well it's clear here tonight and it's also 1 degree so I'm not stepping outside! I did just open the porch door and looked north but didn't see anything, just stars.

It's zero here this morning. Even the dog had enough common sense to come right back in after his first trip of the day to the frozen lawn. No colors in our sky at 0530 dark hours.

Bob