Like many of you folks on the Atlantic Coast, I'm keeping a very watchful eye on Hurricane Isabel. There is a chance it will strike the east coast and could possibly be in the area of Long Island, New York about the same time the Regional is scheduled.

Our fellow collectors have made their reservations for hotels and flying, so there's no turning back without a financial loss. Those planning on driving to the Regional could possibly be effected by various road hazards and limited travel during such a storm. Ferry services to Long Island from Connecticut could possibly be suspended if things get too rough and dangerous.

There is a lot of "what-ifs" but an alternative plan must be kept in mind just in case.

My question is: At what point would the Harbour Lights folks have to make adjustments to the schedule date and operating times of the Regional, if at all, or must the show go on no matter what the weather outlook is?

Inquiring minds on the East Coast, where the call is going out to the boat mover for a possible haul-out next week, would like to know!

Bob

I've been keeping a watchful eye as well. Luckily, we reserved our room with an extra $5 charge that allows us to cancel withing 6 hours of scheduled arrival.

The latest models I've seen have her hitting anywhere from Cape Lookout to Long Island. Hopefully she'll just make a sharp right turn and head out to sea.

Hush now! We'll have no talk of such things!

I have been on the National Hurricane Center's website, and although they always qualify what they say, the current five day projection has it striking land anywhere from Central Florida to Virginia

National Hurricane Center 5 Day Projection Map

Since the Long Island Chapter has 2 cruises scheduled for next weekend, this could be a huge financial blow if Isabel heads this way. *SIGH*

I'd hate to see our Harbour Lights friends get stuck either on their way here or after they arrive. Let's all keep our fingers crossed that Isabel decides to head north and east.

I've dealt with hurricanes both at the professional level and as a boat owner. The likelyhood that this hurricance will have an effect, other than rain, is slim, but you can't write it off yet.

We've had storms up here where we had to close the Interstate highways until the storm had passed. No non-emergency travel was allowed.

If I had to predict what the weather would be next Saturday, I would say moderate to heavy rain with winds averaging 20-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots.

Just my two cents worth without being a trained weatherman who get nice salaries for being wrong half the time.

Bob

Im with you on this one, taking no chances, pulling the boat today.

The lasest maps having her crashing through our door Thursday night/Friday morning. I hope the maps keep changing like they have been.

WBZ-TV (Boston) Weather Forecaster, Barry Burbank, has Isabel hitting Norfolk, VA, then Washington DC around 1400 hours on Thursday afternoon. He's claiming heavy rain and high winds on Friday in this area, followed by dry air on Saturday. That's good news for us up here, but not good news for those of you in the Chesapeake Bay area.

Bob

No it's not good news!
Let's hope for the best for everyone.

Judy

I wasn't taking any chances. "It's Only Money" was hauled early this morning and will remain in dry dock until next Spring. The season is over for me.

Bob

Well, I fly into Providence, RI on Thursday @4:30, hopefully it won't mess with my trip

We're flying into Islip late Thursday night. Say a Prayer!!!

The local news channel here on Long Island is reporting that waves on the Atlantic Ocean are already six to eight feet high in some areas.

Here is the 5 day forecast for the island:

http://weather.newsday.com/US/NY/Islip.html?main=1

John and I are also flying in on Thursday. We arrive at JFK around 6:00pm.

I'm not going to stress about the weather. I'm just planning on have a great week and enjoying the HL regional with all my HL friends.

We are heading out to Long Island in the morning.. We hope to arrive on Friday and still dry...

Here's the most recent marine forecast from the Amrose Light Station:


Hurricane Special! For observations closest to Hurricane Isabel, see our customized Observations Search page.

NWS Forecast
FZUS51 KOKX 170256 CCA
CWFNYC

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1055 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2003

MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY OUT 20 NM OFFSHORE
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR

ANZ300-170930-

SYNOPSIS FOR LONG ISLAND WATERS AND NEW YORK HARBOR
HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WED. HURRICANE ISABEL IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH NORTH CAROLINA COAST THU AND FRI. THE PRESSURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HURRICANE ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORE LATE THURSDAY. THIS CONDITION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRI.

REFER TO THE LATEST TPC ADVISORIES FOR COMPLETE INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE ISABEL.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


ANZ355-353-350-170930-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
1055 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2003

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN

HIGH SURF ADVISORY

GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY


OVERNIGHT
NW WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING N. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT...
MAINLY IN SE SWELLS.

WED
N WIND 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NE. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT...MAINLY IN
SE SWELLS...BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WED NIGHT
NE WIND 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT...MAINLY IN SE SWELLS.

THU
NE WIND 20 TO 25 KT...INCREASING TO 30 TO 35 KT TOWARD
EVENING. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT...BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY.

THU NIGHT
NE WIND 30 TO 35 KT....BECOMING SE. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT
MAINLY IN SE SWELLS. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS...VSBY
LOCALLY 1 TO 3 NM.

FRI
SE WIND 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 TO 14
FT LATE. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS DURING THE
DAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. VSBY LOCALLY 1 TO 3 NM
IN SHOWERS AND FOG DURING THE DAY.

SAT
SW WIND 15 TO 20 KT...BECOMING W 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14
FT...SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 8 FT.

SUN
W WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

I just checked the weather report for Long Island. It looks like the worst weather will be late Thursday into Friday. Windy and rain with temperatures in the low 70s.

It looks like it will clear off on Saturday, with temps in the low 70s.

The local news is reporting that some airlines are reducing their number of flights into the area...so if you are flying to New York, you should probably double check to make sure your flight will take off as scheduled. Amtrak is also reducing the number of trains.

Hope all our Forum friends that are in NC and Virgina stay safe!