New dogs and old cuties. The previous thread on Bow Wows got me wondering. Does the
length of time it takes for a piece to retire correlate with its popularity? T'would seem
so - but just like everything else some models that weren't popular at release are more so
now, and vice versa.

Consider this: Bolivar retired quicker than Portland Head, New Canal faster than St.
Augustine.

Here's a listing of those pieces that took the longest amount of time to retire. The number
is age in days on the market when it retired.

More than 5 years old at retirement
North Head 2152
Cape Blanco 2101
St. George's Reef 2002
Yaquina Head 1971
Sand Island 1897
Umpqua River 1852

More than 4 years old at retirement
Grosse Point 1812
Castle Hill 1778
Great Captain Island 1734
Old Point Loma 1709
Michigan City 1604
Buffalo 1559
Fort Niagra 1528
Whaleback 1514
West Quoddy 1476

More than 3 years old at retirement
Admiralty Head 1451
Minot's Ledge 1371
Portland Breakwater 1353
Cana Island 1344
Boston Harbor 1306
Marblehead 1265
Split Rock 1265
Sandy Hook 1240 (!)
Old Mackinac Point 1122

More than 2½ years old at retirement
Nauset Beach 1002
New London Ledge 1002
Cape Hatteras r2 934
Burrows Island 915 (taken out back and shot)

A few more than 2...
Ocracoke 879
Key West 872
Tybee 872
SE Block Island 867

Some of the above may be in your Fido File, others obviously not. (Note: Fixed lifespan models such as Christmas and Society pieces not included).

What about the reverse? Are the pieces that are quickest to retire the most popular?
Well....you make the call:

Number is age in days on market at retirement:

Retired before released
Sanibel Island -92
Drum Point -5

Retired in less than 6 months
Middle Bay 26
Cape Henry (O&N) 38
Thomas Point 43
Alcatraz 143
Cape Hatteras r1 151
Morris Island T&N 151
Point Arena 156 (discontinued early)
Cape Canaveral 159

Retired between 6 months and a year old
Montauk 313

All other retired pieces took longer than a year to go bye bye.

And lastly, there's the Old Maids - those models that have been around a while and
still aren't retired.

Number is days on market since release:

Older than 3 years and not retired
Round Island 1410
Wind Point 1410

Older than 2½ years...
Selkirk 1137
Brant Point 1106
Cape Meares 1014
Mukilteo 985
Charlotte-Genesee 954
The Lady Light Keepers Series all at 954
Point Pinos, Saugerties, Chatham, Matinicus, Ida Lewis.


von die NebelHorn Bildung,
__
/im

[This message has been edited by JTimothyA (edited 11-11-98).]

Talk about old maids! I am a limited edition of one and by my calculations, I still have 8760 days until retirement. Sure hope I increase in value!

-Todd [burning down the house]

Quote: Are the pieces that are quickest to retire the most popular? T'would seem so, but...

Tim, I, too question the correlation between "retirement" and perceived popularity. IMHO, I think that speculation by dealers, who try to anticipate the market by ordering a large quantity of certain pieces for inventory, contributes to an accelerated "false" retirement wherein dealer orders far outpace sales. Actual sales to individuals would be a better indicator of true popularity, but the data would be hard to compile.

Dealers tended to place greater initial orders starting when Thomas Point and Alcatraz sold out relatively quickly.

However the best (but impossible) measure IMHO would be the disbursement into individual collectors hands.

I don't blame the dealers. It's the individual speculating collectors who purchased 'extras' expecting them to quickly increase in price. But this is a self-defeating practice. The more collectors who purchase extras, the longer it takes the piece to rise in price on the secondary market because there are too many willing sellers.