ANTOHER AUCTION TO WATCH - WOW!

Check this one out. Someone who wants some rare lights. THis is the one!

CHECK THIS ONE OUT

Bert

Hey Bert...

I just saw this one. I figured that this one would cost me $9,800...plus about another $20,000...for the DIVORCE that would quickly follow this purchase . (Although, it's located in Connecticut, so I COULD save on the shipping :p ).

Very interesting, though. Good Luck to whomever steps forward for this one.

BTW... there's no reserve!

And look at the numbers on most of them!

There's some #12's in there. I have a #12 (Cedar Key, FL). We found it on a store shelf. I'd like all of those Maryland 12's (I'd have to suffer with the Sandy Point #17, though :rolleyes: )

I predict you will see the following bidders in the hunt:
oldmanatom
classicwhite76
and a few more of the usual suspects

I wonder if that #16 Mukilteo GLOW is really a mispelled one? (And of course it turns out not to be a GLOW.)

www.harbourlights.com/modifications/pages/open2limited.htm

Would love to have a few pieces out of this one!!

All I can say is; "This one's out of my price range".

It all comes down to finding someone willing to make an investment in the future values of Harbour Lights. Those are great pieces being offered at somewhat of a very reasonable price, unless the bidding starts to skyrocket.

My guess the seller is an old-time collector, probaly an original charter collector, and the time has come to part with the collection. It could be for financial reasons, lost interest, or no room to store or display anymore.

If I were in that position, I would offer each piece individually on eBay or where ever. I think you could make more money if you were willing to spend the time to do it.

Bob

But you gotta admit...it's a sweet package.

As an aside, I'm struck by how infrequently two specific lighthouses come up for bid: Key West and Sandy Hook. Maybe those two are starting to reach the 'rarity status' of Portland Head.

it's quite a collection and would bring someone an excellent set of lighthouses. However, it takes the fun out of collecting, the fun of finding one's one pieces one-by-one

I happen to know something about this collection which makes it even more desireable...........it has never been displayed.

Ron
(CT Keeper)

from some of the chatter around, I'm wondering if this collection will stay intact or will end up being broken to individual pieces offered for resale on e-bay

Notice how the seller does not mention anything about the original boxes. I emailed her and she sent me a list of the pieces without boxes.
Of the 101 pieces, 38 of them do not. All of the early pieces up to HL139 do not have box except the Hatteras white tip, Coquille, Old Mac, Marblehead, Split Rock MI and the Admiralty Head 4929.
I know if I were spending that kind of money, I would want the original boxes no matter what condition they were in.
I went from having interest in this auction to having none whatsoever.
I wonder if the winner of this auction will be surprised (or doesn't care) when he/she receives alot of the pieces without boxes.
I know I wouldn't be real happy.

Ken

especially since the Harbour Lights web site indicates that the box does increase the value of the piece.

I was not aware that there were boxes missing when I posted about the collection never being displayed. I was just passing on what a good friend of the seller had told me. I guess if there are no boxes on some of them then they should be considered "displayed" in one way or another.

I agree that the lack of 30-odd boxes would have an effect on the selling price. I know that I keep all of my boxes and paperwork.

Ron
(CT Keeper)

I wonder what the seller means by "first"? The absence of models such as Point Fermin and Big Bay suggest its not strictly chronological. I tend to connect 'first' with the start of serial ordination though perhaps this does not imply time.

Quibbling aside, it is unusual to see such a high class bundle. The CH1 and 'mis-stated' Burrows and Split Rock really set this Collection apart.

Wrt to BB Bill's speculation about Key West and Sandy Hook, my gut reaction is 'probably not'. Wanna know why? read on...

A while back - OK, a long time ago - when he was 'in the business', JC and I had a conversation about the tier structure of secondary pricing. Essentially this is the theory that many models in the 5500 series can be classified into groups based on their prices relative to one another. And sometimes the increase in price of one member of a tier can pull along others in the same group.

Note that this theory was born during a market of rising prices. I believe it also applies to a market where prices are falling. Whether the tier structure can maintain itself during today's flat market will be something we can only measure over time, but the relative value people place on models which share the same edition size and retail price seems - for the most part to be parsed out and holding.

We find the classic example of a tier in Portland Head and CH2 - their price movement over time tends to be closer to one another than to other models. Another piece that verges on this tier, if not actually belonging to it, is NPL.

Historically, Sandy Hook finds itself tracking close to SE Block Island and Ponce. Barnegat, Montauk, Cape Neddick, Big Bay, and others tend to move relative to one another.

The Belles are a story in themselves, and a bit of a contrast to a strict tier theory. Like any bunch of siblings there has been a pecking order among the seven sisters of '93 and for quite a while we saw three tiers amongst them. At the top has always lived St. Augustine. Hilton Head has never successfully challenged her, but she's tried. The second tier used to be made up of Ponce, Hilton Head, and St. Simons (the last a highly under-rated piece, imo.) Key West, Ocracoke, and Tybee made up the third tier.

More recently we've seen a bit of shifting amongst the Belles as Collectors have come better to understand their value as a set. If you have all seven, how can you part with one of them. If you have some but not all, the missing members gain in desirability. More recently, both Key West and Ocracoke have moved closer to the second tier. We see a leveling effect across the 2nd and 3rd tiers within the sisterhood, though not so strong as to completely level to the secondary price for St. Augustine or Hilton Head. And Tybee continues to bring up the rear. But none are close to the rarity status of Portland Head and CH2.

Sure, there are exceptions - from time to time we see a certain model or group of models surge in popularity. And the market takes advantage of these surges whenever it detects one - bit of a self fulfilling prophecy or bandwagon effect at work. But the surges tend to be short lived.

Is it possible for a model to tier jump, or are the relative values people place across the line-up pretty much fixed - relative values that closely mirror overall (national?) popularity? I think there may be a few examples. West Quoddy, Holland, and Boston Harbor are names that come to mind.

There are probably more tier jumps going backwards. The first screwpile lights and Alcatraz are examples - reverse victims to JC's dispersion theory - they haven't shown staying power.

Perhaps a more interesting question is who are the up-and-comers, if such a possibility still exists. We see a bit of movement for early North Carolina and Florida lights. Could this be a function of more people heading south for retirement? Who knows. JC's the demographer, perhaps he can shed light.

From the flightdeck of the Foglifter, somewhere over Caribou Island,

T

we got the first bid.

One thing I found interesting is seeing #13 on some of these pieces. Isn't that Betty's number who lives in South Carolina? Doesn't she buy all the pieces?

This is one interesting auction!!!!

there used to be a detective tv show called "The Naked City" about NY City when it had 10 million people. The tag line was "there are ten million stories in the Naked City." This auction seems to be one of them.

There are also a couple of #14's, the favored number of one WackoPaul. . .

And it goes for.... $13,600!!!
it went up $3000 in the last three minutes!!

Someone now has a very nice collection.

The high bidder not only bought some great HL's, he or she has an opportunity to make a nice profit if they care to sell the pieces individually.

Bob

He or She is selling off their original high number collection right now on ebay. Most likely will keep the low number ones to replace them with.

Yeh, and he or she is asking way too much for the pieces they are selling. I wonder if this person really knew what each piece was worth before going and buying all those pieces. I believe they think the pieces are worth what the Greenbook values were back several years ago. I say good luck, especially when they find out about the box situation.

Ken

And he or she probably does'nt care about the boxes because they got a GREAT collection that they will keep. They will let their heirs worry about the boxes and they will enjoy looking at all the great pieces. Remember, you collect Harbour Lights to enjoy and the boxes all look the same.

When the worth of HL's were at their peak, the Green Book estimated values were around 30% over what you could actually expect to pay for the piece. That percentage was increased dramatically since the HL secondary market has tumbled. In some cases, the GB estimated value is probably closer to 40-45% over what you can actually expect to get for a particular HL.

The evidence is right on eBay. Check it out and you'll see what I mean.

Bob

I've been tracking the e-bay sales of Harbour Lights for April in a spreadsheet. I am willing to post it if someone can help me. How does one post an excel spreadsheet to this forum?

Pete -- At the end of the month, email me the file and I'll add it to the downloads page.

webmaster@lighthousekeepers.com

Bob -- remember that that Green Book was published at a time when buyers and sellers had a hard time meeting one another. Brokers and secondary market dealers controlled the secondary marketplace and set prices.

Prices were mostly set by an active secondary market dealer for the Green Book. I don't know whether the Green Book people did any checking on these prices or not. (Was any proof required that items had actually sold to more than one buyer at these prices?) It was in the secondary market dealer(s) interest to set prices higher, of course.

The rise of ebay and the decline of secondary market dealers allowed the secondary prices to decline.

As prices rose, more sellers 'came out of the woodwork' so-to-speak.

Speculation by collectors increased as they saw quick sell-outs for Thomas Point, Alcatraz, etc. With many speculators thinking they could turn a QUICK profit, these sellers were not willing to sit on their 'investment' and eventually were selling for what they paid or less just to get their money back.

IMHO

Greenbook was before or at the very beginning of Ebay. Now everyone can be a secondary dealer! I remember searching dealer websites the end of 1998 looking for specific pieces. Today a dealer website would be the last place I'd look. The dealers I deal with I know, and the ones who have the oldies in their basement probably wouldn't list them on a website if they knew they had them in their basement. Most dealer websites are 'way' out-of-date if there still active.