"1999 - the Year of the Unexpected" Part 2

Posted By: JTimothyA

"1999 - the Year of the Unexpected" Part 2 - 02/10/99 06:56 AM

Starting another message for this topic solely for ease of navigation and faster download. I encourage you to read the messages in the original thread, then vent away!

Jump to Part 1 of this thread

Good thing we put govenors on the boilers.

Rgds
__
/im [A Foghorn at night is like momma calling you for supper.]

Posted By: JTimothyA

Re: "1999 - the Year of the Unexpected" Part 2 - 02/10/99 07:28 AM

Quote:

I assume that you're saying that you pay too much for the membership now? The idea behind this statement is to help to keep the edition sizes on the flag, edition numbers true, and these beautiful replicas from stagnating on the shelves of dealers. Not for my personal gain.

Nowhere does my post suggest I think membership fees are too high, therefore this assumption is inaccurate. If fees are raised it should be for a reason other than covering HL's cost in offering an option to purchase new releases to Society Members before making them available to the general public.

Quote:

As for any cost increase, pass that on to the membership fees, I would be willing to pay a couple of extra bucks a year to insure my reservation of a desirable piece.

As the above quote from your original post indicates, it does not appear to advocate HL making this offering in order to "keep the edition sizes on the flag, edition numbers true, and these beautiful replicas from stagnating on the shelves..." but rather to insure my [your] reservation of a desirable piece.

I still maintain if HL offered options to buy without requiring any monetary commitment, few would turn this down. The allowance that one does not have to make a monetary commitment inherently incorporates the idea that one is allowed to change one's mind on any future purchase. This has nothing to do with "falsifying information on a customer survey" much less then more ludicrous suggestion that this is somehow akin to "vandalism".

Regardless of motive, such a survey would more likely yield a distorted view of potential sales - thats the hard reality.

HL makes lighthouse models for a profit - part of this results from the risk they take up front in determining what an edition size should be. This risk is built into their price. If someone wants to advocate HL should take on less risk by gaining some assurance of future sales then HL should return the fruits of this 'guarantee' through lower prices.

As for me, I think the system works fine the way it is. As Rod said "an HL Universal Guaranteed Collectors Society Insurance for new releases is not necessary and the wrong approach to the free market system."

Subsidy free at the FSB,
__
/im [Warhorses? Warhorses? If corraled into equinity, I'd prefer to be a Clydesdale

]

[This message has been edited by JTimothyA (edited 02-10-99).]

Posted By: rihetzler

Re: "1999 - the Year of the Unexpected" Part 2 - 02/10/99 08:15 AM

Great topic. I would favor lower edition sizes. 8,000 would be a good number. I have no problem with HL retiring slow selling pieces early either. If I haven't bought it by now I am unlikely to buy it in the future as there are so many spectacular new models. Besides, I've already run out of room! We're adding on though, so send me your price on Big Bay Point.

Posted By: Webmaster

Re: "1999 - the Year of the Unexpected" Part 2 - 02/10/99 02:02 PM

Quote:

Lets see what really happens with Hillsborozilla. We know it will be a hit and will retire in 99. The big question is once retired how long will it take for them to sell off of the Dealers Shelves?

Since it's on allocation, by definition Hillsboro Inlet is retired before shipment. With the larger size and smaller edition, it doesn't take Carnac to figure in 5-6 months it will be off the "Retired@Retail" red list.

Anybody think the $125 price will hold down speculative purchasing of 'extras'?

Posted By: Bill Harnsberger

Re: "1999 - the Year of the Unexpected" Part 2 - 02/10/99 03:22 PM

Just wanted to toss this in. . .

I don't know if the fine folks at Harbour Lights actually have time to check these posts. So all this noisemaking- - -constructive as it is- - -may not be reaching Bill and Kim. I encourage everyone who's participating in this discussion to write, e-mail, or send a message in a bottle to El Cajon telling them how you feel. If they get a sudden flurry of opinions, they'll be more apt to do something about it promptly. If it's one thing they're good at, it's listening.

Keep on writing here. . .but make sure your message is getting to the people who got us into this mess to begin with

.

[This message has been edited by Bill Harnsberger (edited 02-10-99).]

Posted By: Webmaster

Re: "1999 - the Year of the Unexpected" Part 2 - 02/10/99 03:55 PM

Your comments are always welcome at Harbour Lights. They are especially appreciative of critical messages.

Yep, they're reading this thread.

John

Posted By: jakescol

Re: "1999 - the Year of the Unexpected" Part 2 - 02/10/99 05:59 PM

It doesn't take a CARNAC very long to realize that this type of response is certainly hitting some collectors where it stirs them up the most.
There are some great suggestions on this forum and there are a lot of collectors that don't even know this forum exists. The silent majority, hasn't even spoken yet. They may never be heard from, they'll just fade away and start another collection or brand.
P.S. Even Beavers have favorite kinds of trees but if the bark gets too tough, they'll switch.
I hear they really like salty driftwood that is already stacked, and near lighthouses in California.

[This message has been edited by jakescol (edited 02-10-99).]

Posted By: Art

Re: "1999 - the Year of the Unexpected" Part 2 - 02/10/99 08:51 PM

I like what Bill H. said in Part 1:

Quote:

I'd be very concerned about keeping supply just a bit on the tight side. My goal would be to have every piece retire in roughly 3 years. Some might take a little longer, some would retire immediately. It would balance out.

I'm now dabbling, trying to make some sense out of the available numbers to see what that would mean for edition size in the current environment.

Personally, I'm still sitting on the fence regarding the early retirements. But given the recent controversy over this,
I must concur with BuyGlass:

Quote:

I think its better managed in the beginning with a realistic edition size.

I'm not so sure that the whole problem is in the edition size, though:

Quote:

10,000/9,500 seems to large for now and 5,500 is to small.

All else being equal, this may be true, but let's not forget the number of models that are available at any given time. I think that the notion of "supply" must include this as well as edition size.

Taking a quick look at the data, the 5,500 edition pieces from Ponce de Leon through Tawas have a median number of days on the market until retirement that is roughly the same as the 9,500 edition pieces from Round Island to Cape Henry. So I think that it is not a foregone conclusion that a 9,500 edition size is too large in and of itself. (Pre-Southern Belles, 5,500 edition size pieces took much longer to retire than the two groups that I use here for comparison.)

Having said that, my personal preference would be for smaller edition sizes and more releases throughout the year rather than fewer releases with larger edition sizes. Naturally, economics comes into play, and it is in HL's financial interest (all else being equal -- an enormous qualifier!) to make fewer models with larger edition sizes. I can live with either approach, but to keep interest in the line up, the pieces must move off the shelves faster. To me that means fewer total LE lighthouses available.

-Art

Posted By: WackoPaul

Re: "1999 - the Year of the Unexpected" Part 2 - 02/10/99 09:42 PM

Some have suggested that the Society rates be raised, while I concur that they need to be raised, my reason has nothing to do with the ordering of LE HL.
I am more than willing to pay more per year for my Society membership, if the extra money went towards the mailing of the legacy and other Society mailings.
It would be real nice, if out here in the Great Lakes area, we received them in the same month as the West Coast. Not to mention that Bob has to wait until the Wagon Train delivers ours, then turns toward the East Coast and finally delivers Bob's copy. Maybe, they can activate the Pony Express; it covered the country in a lot less time. Or maybe by retired Lightships through the Panama Canal and around to the East Coast. That way Bob would probably get his about the same time we get them here in the Great Lakes area.

WackoPaul

Posted By: Rod Watson

Re: "1999 - the Year of the Unexpected" Part 2 - 02/10/99 09:59 PM

Dittos to Paul's comments.

I know there was a small discussion of having the legacy posted on-line before, but the legistics of "society member only viewing" was of concern. It would be nice though if at least the major legacy topics could be on-line immediately for all society members to view until the snail mail eventually gets here!

-RodW

Posted By: rscroope

Re: "1999 - the Year of the Unexpected" Part 2 - 02/11/99 06:58 PM

So then, Who are these 25,000 plus HL Society Members?
- Dealers with multiple memberships to obtain extra pieces?
- Are many expired?
- What is the regional distribution of the members, dealers, and sales? East Coast - New England - Midatlantic - Southeast - Florida -Southwest - Great Lakes - California - Northwest.

- Sanibel and Hillsboro would make you believe Florida is hot!! So why the low number on an easily predictible hot seller in Hillsboro. I'd bet St Marks will be a quick retiree.
- Southern Belles add to the regional tourist demand.
- Oh, don't forget the NC, Va and SC LHs.
- Is the West Coast a dead area with only breakage pieces and tourist LHs in demand?
Why is a spectacular piece like Pt Arena still so reasonably available?
- What is the full production number to date on the Cape Hatteras Glow? I'd venture to guess that there's not another HL that comes close to that money maker.

What's the final figure on on Rose Island Society and Old Field Christmas?
- That should give you a true barometer on Society participation.
Production on Cockspur and Sea Girt should give you the active enrollment.

So my opinion is to factor in the above when establishing an edition size, then stick to your commitment.

Posted By: Anonymous

Re: "1999 - the Year of the Unexpected" Part 2 - 02/13/99 08:00 AM

66 postings on this topic ?

Mr. Ed is dead, put the stick down and back away slowly.

Posted By: JTimothyA

Re: "1999 - the Year of the Unexpected" Part 2 - 02/13/99 08:51 AM

Hey Mark! Where ya been hidin'?

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/im

Posted By: Al and Kathy

Re: "1999 - the Year of the Unexpected" Part 2 - 02/14/99 05:46 AM

Just finished reading this very long thread! Haven't been to the forum for a while. I believe that HL raised their edition #'s because several collectors and secondary market dealers told them they should - e.g. Jim Rutherford did in one of his newsletters. Everyone got spooked when Thomas Point retired so quickly. I'm all for a lower size. I don't think the Society #s reflect how many "serious" collections are out there. By "serious" I'm referring to those that get all HLs or are trying to get them all.

Posted By: Art

Re: "1999 - the Year of the Unexpected" Part 2 - 01/19/00 01:08 AM

Save the Forum Threads! Save the Kilobytes!