Posted By: Art
Retirements, and why there ain't none - 02/20/99 08:21 AM
I think that most of us would agree that we like to see pieces retire (especially if they're legit sell-outs). Quick retirements are liked even better. Over the months we have discussed several different suspect factors as to why pieces haven't been retiring like in the "good ol' days".
(See also: Would something please retire? and Would Something Please Retire - Part Deux )
In this thread, I'd like to explore some data that may shed some light on this topic. I have been looking at Tim's data set ( Click here to download Tim's spreadsheet ) since he went public with it. I have my own interpretations and will add them from time to time (You knew that, didn't you?) :-) But for now, I'd just like to throw some charts and numbers out here and see what everyone else makes of them. Let's *try* to stick to data analysis here and take our extreme personal biases to the Fog Signal Building or to the thread linked above. :-)
I'm doing these graphs as links instead of images because they're *big*. They're big so you can read the details. Sorry. The graphs all run from the time of inception of the line to the end of January, 1999. The cutoff is just before the recent forced retirement of Wind Point and Round Island.
This first graph is the number of retirements per calendar quarter since the line was introduced. No surprises here, but a nice warm-up.
Graph 1: Number of HL Retirements by Quarter
This next one is the number of Harbour Lights models that had been released but had not yet retired, by quarter. In other words, it's the number of non-retired models that one had to choose from during a particular quarter.
Graph 2: Number of Non-Retired Models Available by Quarter
Next is one that shows the cumulative number of HL's released. (Looks like the 1 millionth HL will be authorized for release sometime in 1999!)
Graph 3: Cumulative Number of Individual HL Units Released for Production
And here are, by quarter, the maximum number of non-retired HL units that could have been available (but probably weren't). These data include all units authorized for release of models that had not yet retired. It *doesn't* show the true number of units out there by any stretch of the imagination (I have no clue how many had already sold, or even had been actually manufactured up to that point), but it's as close as I could get with the data available. It might serve as a useful indicator in spite of its shortcomings. I welcome your ideas for an improved metric.
Graph 4: Number of Units Not Retired
This next graph shows the age of each HL at retirement, or if not yet retired, it's age at the cutoff. Note the big change that happened when the Southern Belles came out! (does that period define "the good 'ol days"?) Note that the average date for HL153 to HL225 is basically meaningless, since so many of those pieces remain unretired.
Graph 5: Average Retirement Ages of HLs
This last one may be more meaningful than the average retirement date. On this, you can see that the median retirement date for HL153 through HL196 is essentially the same as from HL132 to HL152, in spite of the increase in edition size! This is significant because about 1/2 or the models from HL153 to HL196 *have* retired, so regardless of what happens to the remainder of the models in this group, the median for this group will not change. You'll notice though that the variation in retirement age did increase dramatically in this period. Could that be due to collectors becoming more choosey as their curios fill up? Or because the high-profile lights are already behind us by this point, leaving mostly less desireable (accross the broad population) lights for recent production?
Graph 6: Median Retirement Age of HLs
Well, that should give us something to chew on for a while. I look forward to your analyses.
Edited 2/20/1999 by Art.
Numbered and renamed graph links for easier referencing.
[This message has been edited by Art (edited 02-22-99).]
(See also: Would something please retire? and Would Something Please Retire - Part Deux )
In this thread, I'd like to explore some data that may shed some light on this topic. I have been looking at Tim's data set ( Click here to download Tim's spreadsheet ) since he went public with it. I have my own interpretations and will add them from time to time (You knew that, didn't you?) :-) But for now, I'd just like to throw some charts and numbers out here and see what everyone else makes of them. Let's *try* to stick to data analysis here and take our extreme personal biases to the Fog Signal Building or to the thread linked above. :-)
I'm doing these graphs as links instead of images because they're *big*. They're big so you can read the details. Sorry. The graphs all run from the time of inception of the line to the end of January, 1999. The cutoff is just before the recent forced retirement of Wind Point and Round Island.
This first graph is the number of retirements per calendar quarter since the line was introduced. No surprises here, but a nice warm-up.
Graph 1: Number of HL Retirements by Quarter
This next one is the number of Harbour Lights models that had been released but had not yet retired, by quarter. In other words, it's the number of non-retired models that one had to choose from during a particular quarter.
Graph 2: Number of Non-Retired Models Available by Quarter
Next is one that shows the cumulative number of HL's released. (Looks like the 1 millionth HL will be authorized for release sometime in 1999!)
Graph 3: Cumulative Number of Individual HL Units Released for Production
And here are, by quarter, the maximum number of non-retired HL units that could have been available (but probably weren't). These data include all units authorized for release of models that had not yet retired. It *doesn't* show the true number of units out there by any stretch of the imagination (I have no clue how many had already sold, or even had been actually manufactured up to that point), but it's as close as I could get with the data available. It might serve as a useful indicator in spite of its shortcomings. I welcome your ideas for an improved metric.
Graph 4: Number of Units Not Retired
This next graph shows the age of each HL at retirement, or if not yet retired, it's age at the cutoff. Note the big change that happened when the Southern Belles came out! (does that period define "the good 'ol days"?) Note that the average date for HL153 to HL225 is basically meaningless, since so many of those pieces remain unretired.
Graph 5: Average Retirement Ages of HLs
This last one may be more meaningful than the average retirement date. On this, you can see that the median retirement date for HL153 through HL196 is essentially the same as from HL132 to HL152, in spite of the increase in edition size! This is significant because about 1/2 or the models from HL153 to HL196 *have* retired, so regardless of what happens to the remainder of the models in this group, the median for this group will not change. You'll notice though that the variation in retirement age did increase dramatically in this period. Could that be due to collectors becoming more choosey as their curios fill up? Or because the high-profile lights are already behind us by this point, leaving mostly less desireable (accross the broad population) lights for recent production?
Graph 6: Median Retirement Age of HLs
Well, that should give us something to chew on for a while. I look forward to your analyses.
Edited 2/20/1999 by Art.
Numbered and renamed graph links for easier referencing.
[This message has been edited by Art (edited 02-22-99).]