Posted By: JTimothyA
HL Factoid #11 part 1 - What to Buy? - 12/31/98 08:57 AM
Part 1: In which our hero finds a hobby and searches for the Golden Lens...
My first HL model was Old Mackinac Point given to me on my birthday by my dad in August of '95. It wasn't long til I was hooked (you know how *that* goes). Took me a while to become aware of the secondary market and the fact that some of these little models were pretty darn expensive. HL didn't have any nice catalogs that showed previous years models, so I didn't know what most of their pieces looked like - only those I saw in stores. I didn't know anyone who collected lighthouse models - heck I didn't know anyone who collected 'collectibles'. I was the newest of newbies and I was almost as fascinated with these little lighthouses as I was the big ones.
While attending my first BY signing event in Door County (sheer coincidence - we just happened to be there) I got a snoot full from the shop owner who was also a secondary dealer. Whoa! Some of those prices *were* pretty darn high. But here was someone who had access to models I'd never seen before. In the early stages of Wacko-itis (not diagnosed yet) I was working out in my mind that it made more sense to buy certain models than others. (Like DUH!)
But which ones should I acquire first? The retirement rate was much much quicker a few years ago - and a certain urgency pressed upon my inner beacon. There was *no* formal information on pricing of retired pieces and no information on their availability. HL was still putting together their first list of dealers, so I didn't even have that resource. All I had was the single piece of paper HL had sent me that showed what was available and what had retired, and a price list of secondary market pieces from the Door County shop owner.
Along with trying to be rational about which pieces to acquire when, I was fascinated with the idea of figuring out a way to predict which models were likely to become more valuable over time. Using a spreadsheet, I started playing around with formulas based on the information I had available to me. This didn't amount to much: the date a piece was available, when it retired, and what scraps of pricing info I could dig up. Not alot to go on. What I wanted to do was find a formula that did a good job of correlating a model's data with its pricing history - then test it with current and future pieces to see if the correlation held up.
I never quite got there. Partly because my equations had no way to factor things like aesthetics, the Tourist Factor, speculators, accessibilty, etc. All those intangibles that cause some models to be popular than others. But I got kinda close, cuz, although I didn't realize it, I did indirectly factor the symptoms of these intangibles.
In fact, I had enough confidence in the method of my madness that I actually used this information as my personal buying plan. Followed it for at least two years. Not to the letter, but as a general guideline to help me pick which pieces to buy and in what order.
In the message following this one, I'm posting a snippet from one of my more recent spread sheets. (I still include my early formulas along with capturing a bunch of other data about each model.) The top 47 models are included. I didn't pick these, they are the models that have what I call 'a good negative'. Take the Age of piece At its Retirment and subtract from it the Number of Days Since it Retired. And here's what we get.
So judge for yourself about these 47 models. The list is not absolutely current, but pretty close. I'm not including current pricing info, but you can check values from a little over a year-and-a-half ago. (Some pieces don't have prices from 5/97 cause they weren't on the secondary at that point).
If you're interested in any of the formulas used, drop me a note. Currently I'm using Excel which makes it pretty simple.
Rgds,
__
/im
My first HL model was Old Mackinac Point given to me on my birthday by my dad in August of '95. It wasn't long til I was hooked (you know how *that* goes). Took me a while to become aware of the secondary market and the fact that some of these little models were pretty darn expensive. HL didn't have any nice catalogs that showed previous years models, so I didn't know what most of their pieces looked like - only those I saw in stores. I didn't know anyone who collected lighthouse models - heck I didn't know anyone who collected 'collectibles'. I was the newest of newbies and I was almost as fascinated with these little lighthouses as I was the big ones.
While attending my first BY signing event in Door County (sheer coincidence - we just happened to be there) I got a snoot full from the shop owner who was also a secondary dealer. Whoa! Some of those prices *were* pretty darn high. But here was someone who had access to models I'd never seen before. In the early stages of Wacko-itis (not diagnosed yet) I was working out in my mind that it made more sense to buy certain models than others. (Like DUH!)
But which ones should I acquire first? The retirement rate was much much quicker a few years ago - and a certain urgency pressed upon my inner beacon. There was *no* formal information on pricing of retired pieces and no information on their availability. HL was still putting together their first list of dealers, so I didn't even have that resource. All I had was the single piece of paper HL had sent me that showed what was available and what had retired, and a price list of secondary market pieces from the Door County shop owner.
Along with trying to be rational about which pieces to acquire when, I was fascinated with the idea of figuring out a way to predict which models were likely to become more valuable over time. Using a spreadsheet, I started playing around with formulas based on the information I had available to me. This didn't amount to much: the date a piece was available, when it retired, and what scraps of pricing info I could dig up. Not alot to go on. What I wanted to do was find a formula that did a good job of correlating a model's data with its pricing history - then test it with current and future pieces to see if the correlation held up.
I never quite got there. Partly because my equations had no way to factor things like aesthetics, the Tourist Factor, speculators, accessibilty, etc. All those intangibles that cause some models to be popular than others. But I got kinda close, cuz, although I didn't realize it, I did indirectly factor the symptoms of these intangibles.
In fact, I had enough confidence in the method of my madness that I actually used this information as my personal buying plan. Followed it for at least two years. Not to the letter, but as a general guideline to help me pick which pieces to buy and in what order.
In the message following this one, I'm posting a snippet from one of my more recent spread sheets. (I still include my early formulas along with capturing a bunch of other data about each model.) The top 47 models are included. I didn't pick these, they are the models that have what I call 'a good negative'. Take the Age of piece At its Retirment and subtract from it the Number of Days Since it Retired. And here's what we get.
So judge for yourself about these 47 models. The list is not absolutely current, but pretty close. I'm not including current pricing info, but you can check values from a little over a year-and-a-half ago. (Some pieces don't have prices from 5/97 cause they weren't on the secondary at that point).
If you're interested in any of the formulas used, drop me a note. Currently I'm using Excel which makes it pretty simple.
Rgds,
__
/im