The Season of HL?

I haven't tracked sales to the point where there is enough data to substantiate my hypothesis. However what I have seen, coupled with general observation of the market over several years leads me to speculate that the HL market, like many other markets, is cyclical.

For the sake of discussion I'll suggest the HL 'season' runs from October through April-May, peaking through January-February and closing with the changeover in Collector Society years. Now I don't know if more pieces are purchased during that period, but I suspect prices are higher in that time and lower in the 'off season'. With a bit of reverse logic, it would seem to make sense that if prices are higher, there are fewer pieces on the market. What I'm not certain about is demand - higher demand often means higher prices, but then so does lower supply.

What factors could explain the HL Season? Speculating again...

1. While lighthousing is certainly an outdoor & travel activity, lighthouse collecting can be enjoyed when the weather drives us inside. During the 'off season' months folks tend to spend their money on outdoor activities.

2. The Holidays tend to bring out the collector in us and also in folks who aren't full-time year-round collectors. There are presents to buy!

3. The November-January timeframe is when we get the most news about new releases. (I'm actually surprised to hear about the American Shoal released thought to come before years end - thats an exception.) New releases get collectors excited but typically these trickle out during the first several months of the new year. With interest peaked and new models not yet available, folks try to fill a hole or two (or six) in their collections.

It will be interesting to pay a bit closer attention to the market over this Winter to see if the hypothesis is born out. What do you other market watchers think? Does HL have a Season?

Rgds,
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/im

Xmas plays a roll for sure. So does the end of the society end when those who procrastinate rush to get the society oiece before it retires.

Moby

I have only been around the HL scene for a few years, and was never really an avid market watcher, but I do believe that there is a Summer Doldrums period.

Tim has offered several plausible reasons for a winter acceleration and/or summer deceleration (I guess they are relative).

It might also have something to do with a large number of buyers concentrating on the new releases, trying to 'catch up' during the summer (the majority of new ones seem to come out in the 1st half of the year, but I haven't checked the data to back this up). If this is a factor at all, I suspect that it occurs in conjuction with one or more of the other causes mentioned by Tim already. I don't think this is *the* reason.

I'm not certain why one would focus on the new releases during summer if they are interested in obtaining secondary pieces as well. Perhaps it just because few are aware of the existance of any such market cycle. Perhaps it is just the thrill of buying 'the latest'. Your thoughts?

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-Art

I've noticed a dip in secondary prices around tax time each year as those 'extras' get sacrificed to Uncle Sam. Don't know whether the same is true for retail sales or not.

Keep in mind that the summer season in the east and midwest parts of the country finds alot of vacationers traveling and searching gift shops. As the greatlakes region, along with the NE coast are vacation resort areas, many HL pieces are bought up by new and old collectors. Now I don't think the summer season could exceed the Christmas season, but I'm sure it would beat Jan., and Feb.

It appears the current season is a good time to buy HLs. There are certainly a lot of great deals being offered at the CF Marketplace. Also record numbers of HLs are being offered at eBay, though some of the prices there aren't as good as those at the Marketplace.

I've purchased many of my HLs between the months of October and April. It seems the deals are better then.

Bob

We would totally agree with Tim's statement of "I'll suggest the HL 'season' runs from October through April-May, peaking through January-February and closing with the changeover in Collector Society years."

We have been tracking the HL cycles since '95 and have seen it play out to show your speculation darn close if not right on.

We just had a conversation with one of our fellow Wackos-in-the-Making, ilovehlts, a couple of weeks ago, and made pretty much the same statement to him.

Why this cycle? After having been on eBay for the past two years, we give up in trying to figure out the cycles.

Karen and Michael

I agree with the concensus that seems to be building. I view the peak period as occuring between October through February,with mild action up to April 15 stimulated by possible tax refunds, and pretty slow through the Summer months. I did notice alot of activity straddled around the last Society Reunion in Providence, RI.
Len