Here’s another plausible explanation for the observed Ocracoke effect:
Assume for a moment that there is a very limited pool of people willing and able to buy a LH model for $300+. Assume also that, for any number of reasons, Ocracoke was the last of the Belles to be acquired by a significant number of these people. I don’t think that either of these assumptions is unthinkable, and some might agree that they are both quite possible.
Having already purchased the other Belles, this limited pool of willing and able people focuses their attentions on completing the series. This could explain the price rise for Ocracoke. It could also explain why the other Belles’ prices have plateaued.
Sellers might have come to expect $500 for a St. Augustine based on a few (or even many) actual sales while this limited pool of people was actively seeking St. Auggies. Now that the willing and able buyers at that price have turned their attentions elsewhere (Ocracoke, perhaps), the sellers might continue to list St. Auggie at $500. After some time of stagnant sales, some less patient sellers with considerable inventory might lower their prices gradually. On e-Bay or elsewhere, individual sellers in need of cash might sell considerably below this $500 level. If sellers (individuals or dealers) begin to panic at the apparent price drop, this could lead to a fairly precipitous drop in the average asking price. Also, as potential buyers come to expect an under-$400 St. Auggie and refuse to pay more, the apparent price drop becomes a real one.
All of this, I admit, is purely conjecture. However, I believe that it is *at least* as plausible at the evil-GLOW theory. Because two things happen at the same time does not necessarily mean that they are related. There was once a study done on the relation between the number of storks nesting in a small city in Europe and the number of human children born there. Over a period of several years, one could see that as the number of storks nesting in the city increased, so did the number of newborn human children arriving on the scene. Let’s not confuse correlation with cause-and-effect.
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-Art
