This is an interesting conclusion that merits further consideration.

A few observations...

1. Prior to the disbursal of PCs into homes and the rise of the Internet beyond geekdom, the Harbour Lights secondary market was largely controlled by a small cartel of dealers. As JC indicates there probably were no more than 6 HL marketeers. Their primary advantage was their knowledge about HL models and the relative availability and scarcity of specific pieces.

In that era, most new buyers who 'caught the fever' were not aware of which pieces were popular and they did not have a perspective on the market as a whole. Often a Collector was shielded from the secondary market by a retailer who 'could get one for you', but rarely divulged how - only that it would cost $$$.

When secondary dealers began posting Web sites with models for sale, they quickly realized that it was to their disadvantage to publish their prices. It did not take long for all the secondary dealers to cease revealing prices in public. Published prices led to price shopping for sure - secondary dealers were naturally adverse to competition amongst themselves. But more importantly published prices 'opened up' or exposed the knowledge of prices to a growing community of Collectors. When more and more people became aware of prices it got harder and harder for the secondary dealer to buy low and sell high. This influenced the existence of secondary dealers far more than secondary prices.

2. Now to eBay.

a. eBay re-opened the public availability of pricing information that had been shut down by the handful of secondary dealers. That, and the publication of price guides, coupled with published lists of edition sizes by HL led to a more knowledgeable community of Collectors.

Imo, this knowledge did not cause prices to slide. It did affirm to a much broader group of people that some models were more/less popular and thus more scarce/plentiful than others. Buyers got more savvy. They soon realized that not every HL model was worth a small fortune.

b. eBay broke some of the cachet inherent in the notion of "Retired". Before eBay, individuals going to their Mom and Pop retailer could only learn that "Retired" meant the retailer couldn't get more. 'Its retired ... better buy it now honey - we may not find it again'. I loved when my wife used to say those words. :-) Nowadays - in the rare case of an actual retirement - the 'better get it now' impulse has been replaced by 'wait till it shows up on eBay'. Which lately means as soon as a piece is released (sometimes even before!).

c. I cannot agree that eBay killed the secondary market but it did kill the cartel. eBay allows anyone to be a seller but that is not an explanation why there are more sellers than buyers.

Granted, the more buyers who have access to a wide choice of sellers, the greater price competition can become. But that works both ways. The more buyers available for a *valued* Collectible, the greater the opportunity for its price to go up. And eBay does not change the scarcity equation. eBay is not a reason why greater or fewer people "like" Harbour Lights or a reason why the models are perceived as more or less valuable.

--------------------------------

But enough analysis - time for another piñata, er, opinion :-) I've watched these Collector Forums from the day they opened to the public. If Harbour Lights models were going up in value, rest assured there would be a whole lot more people here than there are now. (I'll venture that the regularity of the forum population tends to track pretty well against the price curve.)

More people came to the hobby when prices were going up. What does that mean? I think it means that more people "like" to buy HL models when they believe the models will hold or increase in value. Why don't more people believe that?

Enjoy your Fogsignal Building,

T