Tim, Let me clarify:
>(A) GLOWS do not adversely affect the LE market nor the secondary market in all cases.
My first conclusion is that my case study is an *exception* to the notion that OEs directly affect LEs. As such, I only mean to infer that if I am an exception, there are likely to be others. I was completely supporting your assertion that broad generalizations could *not* be made at all. I did *not* intend to say that my case study could be extrapolated to the general population. Let me rephrase my original statement here:
(A) GLOWS do not *necessarily* adversely affect the LE market nor the secondary market (although they may in some cases). So broad assertions of such an effect cannot be made.
I agree that the secondary market is important to a collectible line, but I also think that everyone is on kind of a witch hunt, looking for a culprit as to why retirements are now slower than in the past. I think that the GLOWs have become the witches. Please see my earlier post in this forum (10/24/98).
In your saying:
>In Case Study #1 you chose to buy the GLOW Sandy Hook instead of the more expensive LE
and
>If you *had* bought the Sandy Hook LE this would reduce the supply of Sandy Hook LEs on the secondary by one
I think you missed my point about the Sandy Hook LE:
>Even if I had the budget for the LE, I don't think I'd buy it at secondary prices, even though the real-life light is very dear to me.
That point stands regardless of the existence of an OE. It is an aesthetic judgement, not an economic choice. *I just don't **want** one*. The demand doesn't exist (for me), with or without the GLOW.
You also say:
>Well, for one thing it means Sandy Hook LE didn't get any rarer when you opted for the OE.
and:
>The more often folks choose the OE over the LE thats one less opportunity that demand for the LE will exceed its supply. If everyone took this approach, Sandy Hook would never go up in value.
Again, I agree with the importance of the secondary market to the line, but I'm not going to buy a LE I don't want as a kind of welfare program. Each piece must stand on it's own. *That's* free-market economics.
Now, let's suppose that HL *doesn't* make a Sandy Hook GLOW. If other collectors, tourists, locals (NYC is a pretty large local market for Sandy Hook), giftware enthusiasts, et al, share my sentiments that the LE Sandy Hook is *not* that great a representation, then doesn't that open the door for another line to step in and make a better Sandy Hook? If they do, then what impact does *that* have on our beloved obsession? If HL doesn't do it, then someone else will fill the vacuum. It is conceivable that taken to a logical conclusion, this scenario will result in the collapse of HL LE values, should the phenomenon repeat itself throughout the HL retired LE lineup.
Soooo...
Let HL make the GLOWs. Let speculators, rich guys and HL nuts (count me in) bid up secondary prices to their hearts' content. Let the dealers, retail and secondary, make a nice profit. We can all peacefully coexist with a just a little care in timing GLOW releases.
(Is this fun, or what?!!)
-Art
[This message has been edited by Art.]
