There is a very good possibility for 2/3 of the US to see the aurora they are predicting for tonight. If you have clear skies, check outside after dark!
MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
Updated: 11:45 UTC on 14 September 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (5 pm EDT) ON 16 SEPTEMBER
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 14-15 SEPTEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 14-16 SEPTEMBER
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 50, 30, 20 (14 - 17 SEPTEMBER)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 24-48 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO
NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
CENTRAL FRANCE TO NORTHERN SWITZERLAND TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO THE CZECH
REPUBLIC TO POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.
NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO SPOT PERIODS
OF ACTIVITY.
SYNOPSIS...
Active region 10808 continues to produce energetic solar flare activity.
The latest X-class flare was associated with an Earthward-directed
(full-halo) coronal mass ejection that is expected to arrive at the Earth
near the end of the UTC day of 14 September (for North American observers,
this translates to the late afternoon and/or evening hours of Wednesday, 14
September). This disturbance will have the potential to produce periods of
moderate to strong auroral storm conditions. Observations should
be possible over wide-spread mid-latitude locations. We are expecting to see
the passage of a magnetic cloud with this disturbance, which could further
enhance the potential for storm conditions (preceded or succeded by quieter
conditions as the IMF rotates away from a favorable orientation).
This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (5 pm EDT) on
16 September, with a good chance that it will be extended beyond the 14th.
It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/plots.html