Prior to the advent of HL on e-bay I spent time tracking secondary market prices. These were captured in the spreadsheet available in By The Numbers forum (the original secondary market forum) which I notice is now, for some unknown reason, missing. (JC - any clues?)

The spreadsheet also included a couple of mildy sophisticated formulas for measuring value, both past and future. Comparing known secondary values to formula valuation bears witness to its efficacy which I believe still holds today, as the parameters used are fundamentals in the value equation. (Edition size, days since retirement, etc.) Peruse past threads in BTN for detailed discussions. I realize most collectors don't have the patience for this sort of analysis and would rather just buy a book that told them a price.

I have secondary prices for many pieces for '97 and '99. For example, in 1997, the avg. secondary price for Ocracoke was $135, West Quoddy $115. In 1999 Jupiter Inlet was around $105 and Minot's Ledge at $145. I can provide prices on other pieces if you post a note in the By The Numbers forum. I suspect JC and a few other veterans can also peg a current secondary price with reasonable accuracy.

Some information on e-bay auctions for a selected set of models was captured by Art and Orv. We haven't seen an update since February 2001 .

Before e-Bay there were only a handful of national secondary dealers, several of which had Web sites where prices could be tracked. These prices were more consistent than what we now find on e-Bay, where a given auction can explode or never happen depending on the fervor of the day and the participants. This means there are many more data points to capture and this is a v. time consuming process.

If you track the market long enough you notice a few things. There is relative pricing - some pieces will always be worth more than others. Pieces tend to fall in price clumps or ranges. For example, CH2, Portland Head, and NPL tend to be around the same price range. Some pieces will occasionally move out of one bracket an into another. For example, Ocracoke, Tybee and Key West used to be 'lesser Belles' - they have now moved closer to the 'upper Belles' St. Augustine, Ponce, and Hilton Head.

I see an NPL advertised in the Marketplace today for $475 - without even looking, I'll bet a nickle this is +/- $50 of the average going rate for a Portland Head or CH2.

From my experience the 'Green Book' was always a bit on the high side. Most consumer price guides for other hobbies (coins, baseball cards, etc.) are more often designed to drive the market rather than reflect it.

If I had more time on my hands I'd put together a secondary price guide as these prices and the factors that govern them have always been of interest.
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/im
[This message has been edited by JTimothyA (edited 09-25-2001).]