For those of you that somewhat understand the technical jargon of solar flares and the graphs used to chart them, this is the latest update from SpaceW.com -
Name: Cary Oler
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 23:23:45 +0000
Subject: [Forum] UPDATED SITUATION
Hi all. This is the current situation.
We have now observed what we believe are both of the coronal mass ejections
that were expected to arrive at the Earth. The most disturbed period of
geomagnetic and auroral storm activity passed the Earth about 12 hours ago
(around 13:00 UTC). But we aren't out of the woods yet, despite the
depressed solar wind values.
First, the strong proton radiation storm from the last X3.8 flare earlier
today has knocked out the ACE SWEPAM instrument. It is suffering from
contamination and is not reliable. The solar wind velocity, density and
temperature measurements will not be valid until radiation levels subside.
Don't rely on them.
Second, the magnetosphere has suffered a fairly strong punch and will take
some time to recover. During that time, sporadic and perhaps unexpected
auroral activity will occur over isolated regions, even when solar wind
conditions might not look particularly favorable for producing activity. So
it's important if you look for the northern lights to be patient. You might
not see anything at all - or you might. Your chances _will_ increase if the
IMF Bz component drops southward for a period of several hours.
Third, another strong geomagnetic storm is expected when effects from the
X3.8 flare associated coronal mass ejection impacts the Earth over the next
24 hours. An impact assessment is almost ready to publicize. We're expecting
an impact late on 18 January or early on 19 January. Disregard the public
bulletin issued by the Space Environment Center. They made a boo-boo,
stating the disturbance might start on 17 and 18 January (they're off 24
hours in that statement).
This next solar disturbance (from the X3.8 event) will probably be the last
disturbance that will produce notably strong geomagnetic and auroral
storming at the Earth. Region 10720 is moving out of the best position for
producing strong Earthward-directed impacts.
I hope this helps.
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