Aurora Warning!

There is a very good possibility for 2/3 of the US to see the aurora they are predicting for tonight. If you have clear skies, check outside after dark!

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
Updated: 11:45 UTC on 14 September 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (5 pm EDT) ON 16 SEPTEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 14-15 SEPTEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 14-16 SEPTEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 50, 30, 20 (14 - 17 SEPTEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 24-48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO
NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

CENTRAL FRANCE TO NORTHERN SWITZERLAND TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO THE CZECH
REPUBLIC TO POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.

NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO SPOT PERIODS
OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Active region 10808 continues to produce energetic solar flare activity.
The latest X-class flare was associated with an Earthward-directed
(full-halo) coronal mass ejection that is expected to arrive at the Earth
near the end of the UTC day of 14 September (for North American observers,
this translates to the late afternoon and/or evening hours of Wednesday, 14
September). This disturbance will have the potential to produce periods of
moderate to strong auroral storm conditions. Observations should
be possible over wide-spread mid-latitude locations. We are expecting to see
the passage of a magnetic cloud with this disturbance, which could further
enhance the potential for storm conditions (preceded or succeded by quieter
conditions as the IMF rotates away from a favorable orientation).

This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (5 pm EDT) on
16 September, with a good chance that it will be extended beyond the 14th.
It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

Oh ooooof course, and we'll have a she-a-caine passing nearby around midnight or thereafter!! Figures!!

Steve

I think I am to far south (Orlando, Fl.)

Being in NJ, could I have a better chance than I ususally do, with the southern border in the VA area? I've always wanted to see the Northern Lights...and it would be easier to see them in my backyard than, say, Nunavut...

Greg, I think you stand a very decent chance. Your best bet for viewing is to get away from city lights for optimal color, but during a really good show, which they are saying this one is going to be, you should be able to see them regardless. Let me know!

Get away from city lights? I don't think that's possible anywhere in NJ between NYC and Philly. That's why it's so cool when we go to the OBX and can see stars. Whilst in NJ you can only see the very strong ones, down there, they stretch for miles.

But, if it's going to be strong activity, then I might be able to see anyway. Only way to see is to see.

It's cloudy and going to rain, Greg. It'll be past your bedtime anyway. :rolleyes: Good luck, I'd love to see one.
Here's a Michigan Sunset in Holland. It shows you how awesome the sky is up north. I was on wrong side of the lighthouse!


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HollandSunset


Bob

Fantasic picture.

Awesome, Bob.

WOW

Do you think southern wisconsin will be able to see them?

Jeff

Pretty shot, Bob! I really like the gradient capture in the sky.

Jeff, looks like the CME has not hit yet. I'm watching the numbers on spacew.com and if they pan out, you will most definitely be able to see them. Best viewing is in a dark sky location away from as much artificial light as possible.

It will be interesting to see how late I can stay up - between feeding a newborn and having to get Mary to preschool by 8:30am!

Nice photo, Bob.

Jen, hope you and the new baby are doing well... A belated congratulations!

Nice sunset shot Bob. I'm glad your camera hung in for you after the emergency repair that you performed. :rolleyes:

Jeff - It is very possible. We had a great show last November!

At 11:30 p.m. central time, it is cloudy in Wisconsin with an opening in the clouds for the moon to shine through. The clouds are very pretty, but no aurora.

Nice sunset Bob!