Posted By: JTimothyA
Buy 'Em Cuz You Like 'Em - 07/31/03 07:51 AM
Almost any discussion of the HL secondary marketplace - ever since that discussion began many many years ago - can count on two things. One, a mention of GLOWs and Edition Size. And two, several messages chiming the 'Buy Them Cuz You Like Them' mantra. Its like clockwork.
The 'Buy Them Cuz You Like Them" response misdirects the discussion from 'what is happening to the market' to 'what are the motives for buying or selling'. 'Buy them cuz you like them' is an answer, just not to questions about the state of the market.
The market - as price trend - is what it is independently of the motives of those who participate in it - for whatever reason they participate.
HL Limited Edition prices have been continuously falling for several years. Why is the trend downward? Will prices trend up again? I suppose the answer is the simple one. Prices are going lower because supply has outpaced demand. When there are more sellers than buyers, prices go down. I suppose someone will disagree even with this basic principle, but suspend belief for a moment and ask yourself the more interesting question. (At least I think its more interesting.) Why are there fewer buyers?
Why are there fewer people interested in collecting, for example, the entire 5500 series? (The only real place where there is any market action.)
Is the answer to this question "Buy them cuz you like them"? Or put differently - if this advocacy for a purchase rationale is the primary motivator behind market movement can we conclude that fewer people like rare Limited Edition lighthouse models?
"Like" is something of a non-descriptor. "I bought it because I like it". Well...OK. Usually that is follwed up with "Why do you like it?" "Why do you like *that one*, rather than *this one*?
Granted some folks respond with the gut-level "Just Because" reason. For some cause they cannot articulate, they made the purchase. Or for a small number, for no reason at all!
Then there are all the other responses...
Often we'll hear the generic "I bought it because Harbour Lights are the best dang lighthouse models in the world and they're really nice people too." Well ... OK.
"I bought it because cousin Ignatz got married a half-mile from the lighthouse and we saw it at the wedding". The sentiment of a remembrance - a keepsake - who can put a value on *that*? Yes, obviously a good enough reason to plunk down the cash.
Its easy to answer the question why someone bought an HL model. But why aren't there enough people with enough reasons to keep prices even at retail? Why are there more sellers than buyers?
Do fewer people *like* lighthouse models today than six or seven years ago? For whatever that 'like' translates to, is the answer - as born out by the market - inevitably 'yes'?
Portland Head on eBay for $300. Makes me wince. Portland Head has been rock solid at $500 for a long time. "Well I really like Portland Head, but I like $300 more".
"Looks like the HL market is in the pot - if I'm ever gonna get anything outta this, I better sell now". No doubt there is a certain trend or herd psychology to some of it. More people thinking "I better sell now cuz next month I may only get $250 for it".
Collectibles are a funny business. Along with "like" - many people collect what they perceive as having value. This perception is itself a reason for "liking". People who collect often tend to seek things that are rare - rarity is part of the value equation. It would seem there aren't enough people who think 10,000 models of South Bass Island are sufficiently rare to keep it at its retail price. Why should I pay $300 dollars for an LE Portland Head when I can get a Glow for $60 that actually looks better? (You knew we'd get here eventually.)
What could drive the market up? More people buying because they like them? Well... more people buying might do it.
So let me ask you - would more people buy Harbour Lights models because they like the idea of them holding their value - maybe even going up a bit?
Would more people like to buy Harbour Lights models if they knew there would only ever be 4,000 versions of a given model and there would never be a lower price replica?
No one - I repeat - no one buys these models instead of mutual funds. We may be older and slower, but we're not dummies - after all we can afford hundreds, often thousands of dollars in lighthouse models. You can't do that if...
What would cause the demand to exceed the supply and return HL to a true Collectible?
If you haven't gathered by now, part of my function here is to stir things up... so have at it.
The Fog Bell sounds low.
A cat takes comfort in its warmth.
T
The 'Buy Them Cuz You Like Them" response misdirects the discussion from 'what is happening to the market' to 'what are the motives for buying or selling'. 'Buy them cuz you like them' is an answer, just not to questions about the state of the market.
The market - as price trend - is what it is independently of the motives of those who participate in it - for whatever reason they participate.
HL Limited Edition prices have been continuously falling for several years. Why is the trend downward? Will prices trend up again? I suppose the answer is the simple one. Prices are going lower because supply has outpaced demand. When there are more sellers than buyers, prices go down. I suppose someone will disagree even with this basic principle, but suspend belief for a moment and ask yourself the more interesting question. (At least I think its more interesting.) Why are there fewer buyers?
Why are there fewer people interested in collecting, for example, the entire 5500 series? (The only real place where there is any market action.)
Is the answer to this question "Buy them cuz you like them"? Or put differently - if this advocacy for a purchase rationale is the primary motivator behind market movement can we conclude that fewer people like rare Limited Edition lighthouse models?
"Like" is something of a non-descriptor. "I bought it because I like it". Well...OK. Usually that is follwed up with "Why do you like it?" "Why do you like *that one*, rather than *this one*?
Granted some folks respond with the gut-level "Just Because" reason. For some cause they cannot articulate, they made the purchase. Or for a small number, for no reason at all!
Then there are all the other responses...
Often we'll hear the generic "I bought it because Harbour Lights are the best dang lighthouse models in the world and they're really nice people too." Well ... OK.
"I bought it because cousin Ignatz got married a half-mile from the lighthouse and we saw it at the wedding". The sentiment of a remembrance - a keepsake - who can put a value on *that*? Yes, obviously a good enough reason to plunk down the cash.
Its easy to answer the question why someone bought an HL model. But why aren't there enough people with enough reasons to keep prices even at retail? Why are there more sellers than buyers?
Do fewer people *like* lighthouse models today than six or seven years ago? For whatever that 'like' translates to, is the answer - as born out by the market - inevitably 'yes'?
Portland Head on eBay for $300. Makes me wince. Portland Head has been rock solid at $500 for a long time. "Well I really like Portland Head, but I like $300 more".
"Looks like the HL market is in the pot - if I'm ever gonna get anything outta this, I better sell now". No doubt there is a certain trend or herd psychology to some of it. More people thinking "I better sell now cuz next month I may only get $250 for it".
Collectibles are a funny business. Along with "like" - many people collect what they perceive as having value. This perception is itself a reason for "liking". People who collect often tend to seek things that are rare - rarity is part of the value equation. It would seem there aren't enough people who think 10,000 models of South Bass Island are sufficiently rare to keep it at its retail price. Why should I pay $300 dollars for an LE Portland Head when I can get a Glow for $60 that actually looks better? (You knew we'd get here eventually.)
What could drive the market up? More people buying because they like them? Well... more people buying might do it.
So let me ask you - would more people buy Harbour Lights models because they like the idea of them holding their value - maybe even going up a bit?
Would more people like to buy Harbour Lights models if they knew there would only ever be 4,000 versions of a given model and there would never be a lower price replica?
No one - I repeat - no one buys these models instead of mutual funds. We may be older and slower, but we're not dummies - after all we can afford hundreds, often thousands of dollars in lighthouse models. You can't do that if...
What would cause the demand to exceed the supply and return HL to a true Collectible?
If you haven't gathered by now, part of my function here is to stir things up... so have at it.
The Fog Bell sounds low.
A cat takes comfort in its warmth.
T